Winter 2012/13 - General Chat

[johnholmes]

I have to smile at some posts in this and the model thread this evening.

Lots of enthusiasm from new and older members for the cold-great, but some are getting all manner of things mixed up.

The Helen Willetts video was broadcast on the BBC but it was totally Met O data-point one.

Secondly re the New York snow and comments about it coming across the Atlantic-truth-one poster was nearly there; deep lows in the winter half of the year are, as at any other time, largely setup by the upper air pattern. That means the warm air ahead of such lows CAN cause pressure to rise in the Greenland area with a consequent extension of the trough east of that area. The result is a cold arctic air flow into the UK. So in one sense the US weather does govern what happens here just as the weather in the UK governs what happens downwind of here, Europe and thence Asia.

Point 3 back again to Gibby and his model assessments-again as has been pointed out by others, the assessment is one of the most unbiased views of a particular run, his comments cover the main 3, thus UK Met is taken out to T+144 hours, ECMWF to T+240 hours and GFS, correct me if I am mistaken Gibby if you read this, also to T+240 with if he feels it warnants it a comment, usually one sentence to take it out to T+384. Thus attempts to mix his 12z assessment with the Met O outlook for the end of November are totally incorrect.

Sorry to go on but newcomers and visitors alike on both threads this evening must wonder what on earth is going on.

Edited November 8, 2012 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

Tell me about it! Not even 2009/2010 or 2010/2011 could produce depths more than 5cm here!

Here not the greatest TBH, although way way better than crewe, looking back i dont think even 91 delivered a huge dumping here, feb 09 did though, not far off a foot in places, i have been here 2 years and my biggest fall has only been 6 or 7 inches, NEerly with a small organised band moved west in NOV 10, spectacular event though, relentless! and massive flakes, 6 inches in 2 and a half hours.

[liam79]

Tell me about it! Not even 2009/2010 or 2010/2011 could produce depths more than 5cm here!

Both years produced around 8 inches (In Rainford St Helens Merseyside) and we are below sea level, well not far off lol and it stayed on the ground day after day. December 2010 was the best here with the snow starting late evening and still going through the next morning

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here not the greatest TBH, although way way better than crewe, looking back i dont think even 91 delivered a huge dumping here, feb 09 did though, not far off a foot in places, i have been here 2 years and my biggest fall has only been 6 or 7 inches, NEerly with a small organised band moved west in NOV 10, spectacular event though, relentless! and massive flakes, 6 inches in 2 and a half hours.

What I wouldn't give for a 6 inch snowfall. Saying that, a snowfall of that depth is even rarer here than storms....I haven't seen a decent one of those here for a good while either!

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to smile at some posts in this and the model thread this evening.

Lots of enthusiasm from new and older members for the cold-great, but some are getting all manner of things mixed up.

The Helen Willetts video was broadcast on the BBC but it was totally Met O data-point one.

Secondly re the New York snow and comments about it coming across the Atlantic-truth-one poster was nearly there; deep lows in the winter half of the year are, as at any other time, largely setup by the upper air pattern. That means the warm air ahead of such lows CAN cause pressure to rise in the Greenland area with a consequent extension of the trough east of that area. The result is a cold arctic air flow into the UK. So in one sense the US weather does govern what happens here just as the weather in the UK governs what happens downwind of here, Europe and thence Asia.

Point 3 back again to Gibby and his model assessments-again as has been pointed out by others, the assessment is one of the most unbiased views of a particular run, his comments cover the main 3, thus UK Met is taken out to T+144 hours, ECMWF to T+240 hours and GFS, correct me if I am mistaken Gibby if you read this, also to T+240 with if he feels it warnants it a comment, usually one sentence to take it out to T+384. Thus attempts to mix his 12z assessment with the Met O outlook for the end of November are totally incorrect.

Sorry to go on but newcomers and visitors alike on both threads this evening must wonder what on earth is going on.

Yes, Cant understand how people have come to that conclusion based on his post.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Both years produced around 8 inches (In Rainford St Helens Merseyside) and we are below sea level, well not far off lol and it stayed on the ground day after day. December 2010 was the best here with the snow starting late evening and still going through the next morning

Yeah we had the cold, just not the precipitation unfortunately. 2 people came down from 2 different parts of Manchester and both said 'is that it' when they saw the small amount of snow that fell here. Depressing much?!

[feb1991blizzard]

What I wouldn't give for a 6 inch snowfall. Saying that, a snowfall of that depth is even rarer here than storms....I haven't seen a decent one of those here for a good while either!

Same here in 08 when i moved to salford but since then the goalposts have moved upward, moving here and HBL been prevalent, in fact i would have though likely that i would not see a 6 again, had not since 96, and if you had said i would live through a sub zero month (way sub zero in the case of here), i would have said you were stark raving bonkers!!

[Snowy Easterlies]

looks like a west based NAO on the GFS 18z in FI, think that is the third run out of the last four to show this, typical everything is either to far west or to far east, of course things are subject to change as ever

Edited November 8, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Cheshire Freeze]

looks like a west based NAO on the GFS 18z in FI, think that is the third run out of the last four to show this, typical everything is either to far west or to far east, of course things are subject to change as ever

Well it would be a better set up than the one we have currently.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Yeah we had the cold, just not the precipitation unfortunately. 2 people came down from 2 different parts of Manchester and both said 'is that it' when they saw the small amount of snow that fell here. Depressing much?!

I think one of the reasons is you are sheltered by the Welsh hills, while St Helens and Manchester arn't, plus your not in a good position for Irish sea streamers but St Helens and Manchester are.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think one of the reasons is you are sheltered by the Welsh hills, while St Helens and Manchester arn't, plus your not in a good position for Irish sea streamers but St Helens and Manchester are.

All we needed was more of a direct NW'ly rather than a WNW'ly which pushed the showers too far north of here. Just bad luck on both occasions. A direct NW'ly would have pushed the showers through Liverpool Bay down through Cheshire and into north Shrops/Staffs.

[Snowy Easterlies]

bedford is usually a poor place for snow, but in 2010 i got a big dumping, mind you i got lucky as the band of snow stalled right over me, had i been 15 miles further north i wouldn't have seen anything, luton just down the road from here does far better as its much higher up

Edited November 8, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Alan Medlock Valley]

All we needed was more of a direct NW'ly rather than a WNW'ly which pushed the showers too far north of here. Just bad luck on both occasions. A direct NW'ly would have pushed the showers through Liverpool Bay down through Cheshire and into north Shrops/Staffs.

Indeed, bizarre how you haven't had 6 inches though since 2008, I think even most parts of the South have managed that.

[Chess01]

I think one of the reasons is you are sheltered by the Welsh hills, while St Helens and Manchester arn't, plus your not in a good position for Irish sea streamers but St Helens and Manchester are.

the problem with crewe is its to low eleavation . I live 10 miles south in stoke and we get alot more snow than crewe does

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed, bizarre how you haven't had 6 inches though since 2008, I think even most parts of the South have managed that.

2008? I can't recall a 6 inch fall ever!

[Alan Medlock Valley]

the problem with crewe is its to low eleavation . I live 10 miles south in stoke and we get alot more snow than crewe does

True, plus if there's a direct westerly flow with cold air place of course inland then Snowdonia must moderate some of the heavier bursts around South Cheshire and the Crewe area. whereas here it just slams into us.

Edited November 8, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley

[Cheshire Freeze]

the problem with crewe is its to low eleavation . I live 10 miles south in stoke and we get alot more snow than crewe does

A number of factors go against us. Low elevation, Pennines to the east, Welsh hills to the west, a warm Irish sea to the NW and a long land track from the SE.

[Chess01]

I do well from cheshire gap streamers . Eastleys just seem to bring freezing cold but no snow because the peak district block

[Polar Maritime]

Old Met Man's post in the MOD thread is worth a read...

[Cheshire Freeze]

True, plus if there's a direct westerly flow with cold air place of course inland then Snowdonia must moderate some of the heavier bursts around South Cheshire and the Crewe area. whereas here it just slams into us.

We can get signifficant snow here....historical accounts are a testament to this. It just seems very very difficult to acheive.

[Snowy Easterlies]

tbh i can't even remember any snow from an easterly here, i don't know why i even called my self snowy easterlies, snow here usually only comes from fronts coming up from the south

[Met4Cast]

Thames streamers are usually very good for this area! February 2009 was useless though, I was living in the Isle of Grain at the time and we had about 2 hours of snow pellets and then it stopped altogether whilst London got absolutely pasted!

November 2010 saw a Thames Streamer setup and I did a lot better from that one, we managed around a foot of snow after about 10 hours of constant heavy snowfall, best day ever!

[Cheshire Freeze]

A brief 5-7cm overnight snowfall late Feb 2010

Dec 2010

Edited November 8, 2012 by CreweCold

[Eskimo]

tbh i can't even remember any snow from an easterly here, i don't know why i even called my self snowy easterlies, snow here usually only comes from fronts coming up from the south

Problem is the wind just doesn't become strong enough to drift them in that far west, my area is the same!

[feb1991blizzard]

We can get signifficant snow here....historical accounts are a testament to this. It just seems very very difficult to acheive.

The best setup for you is a MAR 95 IMO, some sort of frontal system stalling and then pulling away SE, you must have it the Jackpot woth that.

A brief 5-7cm overnight snowfall late Feb 2010

Around the 24th on a saturday night?

Edited November 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard