Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[johnholmes]

I think the chap who posted the video (Glacier ?) looks to have a far greater knowledge of all sorts of factors than I've seen even from some of the US guys but just my opinion is that you start at the general default winter pattern and need really good reasons for saying that something different is the offing, and I don't really see that it is.

welcome Terrry, if that really is your name?

Have you got the NAO for this time in 1946 and 1962 to show that even in severe winters the NAO was -ve in late autumn?

[chionomaniac]

welcome Terrry, if that really is your name?

Have you got the NAO for this time in 1946 and 1962 to show that even in severe winters the NAO was -ve in late autumn?

Here are the NAO values from 1950 to help, Terry.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table

and forecasts - they look pretty negative to meTerry - almost completely different immediately,

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Edited November 12, 2012 by chionomaniac

[geoffw]

Thanks Shotski, certainly does show how things can flip. I would have been in the US at the time so don't recall, but pretty exceptional set-up ending up the end of November for the UK.

hi ian brown, long time no see . what do you forecast for the upcoming winter?

[UV-RAY]

welcome Terrry, if that really is your name?

Have you got the NAO for this time in 1946 and 1962 to show that even in severe winters the NAO was -ve in late autumn?

John if this Terry isn't Ian Brown I'll eat my hat, if you remember from last year Ian mentioned numerous times about guys from the US. Still if Ian would rather play games then that's up to him, he never bothered me with his posts as we are all entitled to our opinions.

[womble21]

Terry Michael Wood = TMW = The Modern Winter...how very drole Ian...not.

Edited November 12, 2012 by womble21

[bradymk]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20297630 a new video by BBC regarding end of month, clearly some uncertainty in the forecast.

[Met4Cast]

Latest MO Ensemble Mean chart update isn't very good if you want cold and snow

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20121101/2cat_20121101_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.png

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Latest MO Ensemble Mean chart update isn't very good if you want cold and snow

http://www.metoffice...eter_public.png

but there again they go for below average 2m temps - clear as mud lol

[Met4Cast]

but there again they go for below average 2m temps - clear as mud lol

Yeah, the two do not correlate well at all!

[UV-RAY]

Yeah, the two do not correlate well at all!

A cold zonal set up with blocking to our NW with below average precipitation. Clear as mud!

[johnholmes]

Gawd, one or two of you are beyond the pale as far as expecting you to read/look at the charts carefully, do you not understand what they are showing?

[UV-RAY]

Gawd, one or two of you are beyond the pale as far as expecting you to read/look at the charts carefully, do you not understand what they are showing?

I do John, but I was being facetious in my reply. The signal remains for blocking somewhere West of North, that has been a consistent feature throughout.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I do John, but I was being facetious in my reply. The signal remains for blocking somewhere West of North, that has been a consistent feature throughout.

The mean pressure chart linked above doesn't look very good to me? Looks zonal with the centre of the high to the south. Pretty much concurs with ECM seasonal. It's a +NAO on that chart I'm afraid!

[UV-RAY]

The mean pressure chart linked above doesn't look very good to me? Looks zonal with the centre of the high to the south. Pretty much concurs with ECM seasonal. It's a +NAO on that chart I'm afraid!

But that doesn't correspond with the 850 charts CC, I think the mean pressure chat may well be in error as the 850 charts have shown a consistent signal for heights to our NW. The pressure charts were also singing from the same hymn sheet up until now.

[Met4Cast]

But that doesn't correspond with the 850 charts CC, I think the mean pressure chat may well be in error as the 850 charts have shown a consistent signal for heights to our NW. The pressure charts were also singing from the same hymn sheet up until now.

What's to say the 850 charts aren't wrong? As you say, the pressure charts were also consistent with progging Northern Blocking up until today.

500hPa chart also looks more zonal rather than blocked

Not saying it WILL happen. Just saying what it shows

[Evening thunder]

Latest MO Ensemble Mean chart update isn't very good if you want cold and snow

http://www.metoffice...eter_public.png

Hmm but there's no way that pressure anomaly can create the temp anomalies suggested as most likely here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

And the temp anomaly probabilities don't tie in with the pressure probabilities on the link I've posted either.

I really hope that doesn't come off, mild with HP just to the south, the worst possible winter set up. Give me an active Atlantic with strong winds, stormy lows, and all the other weather it brings anyday over that, but then 'interesting' Atlantic driven weather set-ups in Autumn/Winter seem to be quite rare down south these days :/.

[UV-RAY]

What's to say the 850 charts aren't wrong? As you say, the pressure charts were also consistent with progging Northern Blocking up until today.

500hPa chart also looks more zonal rather than blocked

Not saying it WILL happen. Just saying what it shows

I hadn't checked the 500 hPa charts, they look similar to last years snoozefest of a winter.

[johnholmes]

A +ve NAO chart is what it shows-true.

So another nail in the coffin of a below normal winter then?

[Met4Cast]

Hmm but there's no way that pressure anomaly can create the temp anomalies suggested as most likely here:

http://www.metoffice.../glob-seas-prob

And the temp anomaly probabilities don't tie in with the pressure probabilities on the link I've posted either.

I really hope that doesn't come off, mild with HP just to the south, the worst possible winter set up. Give me an active Atlantic with strong winds, stormy lows, and all the other weather it brings anyday over that, but then 'interesting' Atlantic driven weather set-ups in Autumn/Winter seem to be quite rare down south these days :/.

Yeah it does seem a little weird seeing the charts at odds with each other like that, you'd expect them to correlate together wouldn't you? This model takes into account the state of the Stratosphere doesn't it? I'm assuming it takes current state rather than predicted state - Probably explains the zonal looking pattern

Edited November 12, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[Cheshire Freeze]

What's to say the 850 charts aren't wrong? As you say, the pressure charts were also consistent with progging Northern Blocking up until today.

500hPa chart also looks more zonal rather than blocked

Not saying it WILL happen. Just saying what it shows

I agree....same +NAO pattern showing on precip also.......

Spain, France, southern UK below average which suggests HP exerting influence here with Scotland experiencing wettest weather (due to LP tracking up past western Scotland etc) As +NAO a signal as you'll see. Even looks a bit bartlettesque (at least the potential would be there anyway). Not what I particularly wanted to see TBH.

[johnholmes]

What's to say the 850 charts aren't wrong? As you say, the pressure charts were also consistent with progging Northern Blocking up until today.

500hPa chart also looks more zonal rather than blocked

Not saying it WILL happen. Just saying what it shows

It depends which part of the chart you are referring to?

The above average heights are shown in a broad swathe from the states into the Uk and much of Europe with the lower heights shown north of that band.

[Cheshire Freeze]

A +ve NAO chart is what it shows-true.

So another nail in the coffin of a below normal winter then?

Looks that way John, consensus seems to be growing for this eventuality on the long rangers/seasonals too. ECM, UKMO and the CFS to some degree now singing from the same hymn sheet. The evidence from the models at the moment is fairly one sided.

[Skyraker]

As far as I'm aware there hasn't been.

Are there no historical charts we could look back on BA, in order to gauge whether such events can take place?

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

The above link doesn't specify PV strength but does give historic Strat temps through late autumn / winter and corresponding warmings... cherry pick away guys.

Des.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'll tell you something, it's going to be a long, boring, frustrating winter if those UKMO charts come about. Wasn't expecting such a dramatic flip from last month's offerings in all honesty.

[UV-RAY]

Looks that way John, consensus seems to be growing for this eventuality on the long rangers/seasonals too. ECM, UKMO and the CFS to some degree now singing from the same hymn sheet. The evidence from the models at the moment is fairly one sided.

Yes the alarm bells are starting to ring a little, hopefully GP's musings last week will be nearer the mark than some of these horror shows. On the plus side how many times are these LRF actually right, every straw to clutch counts. Edited November 12, 2012 by Seven of Nine