Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[Methuselah]

He's on a weather enthusiasts website called weatherbell.com - access to his views are premium i.e. subscription

He should be paying us to listen!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes please!

For fun of course but looks great, the next day the big day looks a certain ice day, dry likely with snow on ground

[keithlucky]

Absolute great one liner from the Met Office , we’re heading into winter and "We expect winter to be colder than the rest of the year ,"http://metofficenews...e-in-the-media/

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes please!

Stunner of a chart.

[Summer Sun]

The met office's probability maps have updated today for the final time before winter begins

850 hpa Temperature has a 40% chance of been below normal

Precipitation

Sea level pressure has a 40% chance of been above normal

[Methuselah]

Absolute great one liner from the Met Office , we’re heading into winter and "We expect winter to be colder than the rest of the year ,"http://metofficenews...e-in-the-media/

A perfect riposte to all the tabloid piffle though?

[Liam J]

Absolute great one liner from the Met Office , we’re heading into winter and "We expect winter to be colder than the rest of the year ,"http://metofficenews...e-in-the-media/

Superb

[Barry12]

The met office's probability maps have updated today for the final time before winter begins

850 hpa Temperature has a 40% chance of been below normal

Precipitation

Sea level pressure has a 40% chance of been above normal

A 60% chance of the 850 hpa being average or below, not bad

Edited November 12, 2012 by Barry95

[blizzard81]

The met office's probability maps have updated today for the final time before winter begins

850 hpa Temperature has a 40% chance of been below normal

Precipitation

Sea level pressure has a 40% chance of been above normal

I have followed these probabilty maps for the last few years and I have always been able to draw a conclusion from them.

That is untill this years November update. It screams fudge to me, especially with the precipitation maps. How can you

have splodges of blue interspersed in close proximity with deep yellows!! My belief is that the Meto have blinked first.

Blinked before the ECM seasonal forecast. These two forecasts were at total odds with each other untill this latest Nov update

from the Meto. It suggests to me that there are far more conflicting signals this winter than usual and maybe even the supercomputers

are having a headache with it all.

[Bumpkin]

I think the MetO's probability forecasting will have to get a few seasons right before I have any confidence in them after their spring forecast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf

Not saying they are wrong but it will take a while before I’m convinced.

[Andy_]

Met Office appears to have climbed back onto the fence after going for a colder than normal outlook with lower than average heights over the UK, to colder than normal with higher than normal heights which look to be Atlantic sourced, how that would work I couldn't tell you but I guess these are just probability charts.

I still think there isn't anything to be downbeat about, I doubt any of the signals discussed in GP's preliminary winter video have changed within the last week,

And its ridiculous that anyone is writing off December at the moment it's not even mid-November!

[feb1991blizzard]

Might be a decent FI coming up here, not convinced so dont hold me to it, just a tiny bit less flat and more shape to the ridging.

[feb1991blizzard]

WE HAVE LIFT OFF!!!.

Edited November 12, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Snap off about to occur.

80s ending coming up here.

Insteresting GEFS suite coming up.

Edited November 12, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

only 18Z though, heard its a crappy run by Steve etc

[Snowstorm1]

18z WOW My interest is now fully engaged now lets gets this down to +0 and i think a few coldies in here will be very happy! 2010 Revisited anyone?

[Andy_]

GFS 18Z FI... Where do I Sign?

[Met4Cast]

18z has definitely gone back in time to visit the 80s!

My word.

[damianslaw]

Interesting video from BBC Weather discussing the uncertainty about later this month and into December.

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20297630

Jay Wyne mentions the possible scenarios of high pressure across Scandinavia and low pressure south west of the British Isles but for the time being, there is no clear signal from the models regarding what the end of November is looking like synoptically.

The BBC must have felt obliged to discuss the possibility of colder weather at the end of the month.. I'm quite surprised really, perhaps they don't want to be associated with the headlines and to show they are independent of them. They must have deliberated over which scenarios to show, and I think they have got it about right with the two they have shown, though I think they should have showed another and that is high pressure sat more centrally over Europe. I believe the odds are more in favour of a colder outlook as we end the month and we don't need epic northeasterlies like we saw in late Nov 10 to deliver cold at the end of Nov, look back at the tail end of Nov and first half of Dec 08, no easterlies or northeasterlies just northerlies interspersed with cyclonic cold conditions and slack pressure with fog and frost. It is very rare to see an easterly develop at the end of Nov, can't remember the last time we saw high pressure develop over scandi at the end of Nov with screaming easterlies, probably 1993 and they did not herald a particularly cold December. I do like easterlies but a greenland high in my view is much more conducive to sustained long term embedded cold synoptics as we saw in late Nov 10 and mid Dec 09. Easterlies are more likely to persist during the second half of the winter..

[johnholmes]

The two key words for either a flow from NE or SW were IF, hgihly scientific so folks stop pinning your hopes on IF. I am still not convinced in spite of others suggesting a build of pressure over Scandinavia, I would still bet 70:30 for the intial build to be from west of not east of the UK.

What proof I hear some ask quite rightly? The usual links mostly watching how the 500mb anomaly charts are predicting things 6-15 or so days down the line, the NAEFS does go out as far as GFS obviously=beyond 15 days just, and extrapolating with other data available, AO, NAO, MJO etc.

Time will tell which is right if indeed any of it is.

His main scientific input was, as per their 16-30 day outlook, 'there is no definite signal for either type of weather' or words very similar?

oh and of course selling the BBC, I suppose it really needs any help it can get at the moment, telling mild and folk switch off, cold and the word goes round!

Am I being a bit harsh?

Edited November 12, 2012 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

only 18Z though, heard its a crappy run by Steve etc

I did see the verification stats of the 4 runs once, cannot remember the link, i am sure it was steve who posted it, 6z and 18z verify significantly below the other 2, if not hugely.

[feb1991blizzard]

The two key words for either a flow from NE or SW were IF, hgihly scientific so folks stop pinning your hopes on IF. I am still not convinced in spite of others suggesting a build of pressure over Scandinavia, I would still bet 70:30 for the intial build to be from west of not east of the UK.

What proof I hear some ask quite rightly? The usual links mostly watching how the 500mb anomaly charts are predicting things 6-15 or so days down the line, the NAEFS does go out as far as GFS obviously=beyond 15 days just, and extrapolating with other data available, AO, NAO, MJO etc.

Time will tell which is right if indeed any of it is.

His main scientific input was, as per their 16-30 day outlook, 'there is no definite signal for either type of weather' or words very similar?

oh and of course selling the BBC, I suppose it really needs any help it can get at the moment, telling mild and folk switch off, cold and the word goes round!

Am I being a bit harsh?

Yes John, despite my bravoistic posts above, i would concur, an Easterly, certainly a belting one with the UK under -10 uppers, is not the favourite, however to be even talking about it on the 12th Nov though is a good sign, the fact that professionals and Meteorological organisations are mentioning it at least means there is an outside chance, you have to be in it to win it!!

[Aaron]

Really don't like the look of those easterly charts at all.. I assume it would be raw and overcast here with little snow. Please, give me a north-easterly or a northerly.

Edited November 12, 2012 by Aaron

[feb1991blizzard]

Really don't like the look of those easterly charts at all.. I assume it would be raw and overcast here with little snow. Please, give me an north-easterly or a northerly.

I disagree with that, pretty confident i would get something from late GFS FI, good chance you would get battered by it.

[Aaron]

Maybe.. but my experience of easterlies are not so great.. also you asked a question about the winters of 1981 or 1986? I don't remember if much snow fell in those winters, 1986 was very cold in Feb with a sub-zero mean.