Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[feb1991blizzard]

nope but i do see from my experience on net weather the whole lot collapsing ok when its within t144 then i will believe what im seeing.

not to be critical but gp is not always right

Still the best LR forecaster i have ever seen though, so on balance i would go with him and to be honest i cannot remeber him being too wrong any winter forecaster.

[MR EXTREMES]

Still the best LR forecaster i have ever seen though, so on balance i would go with him and to be honest i cannot remeber him being too wrong any winter forecaster.

im not insulting his good work and this is a totally different set of teleconnections to last year.

so to say hes going to be right is a bit of a leap of faith.

although im happy to return and take my hat of if he is correct.

[bluearmy]

this is a fair point. i have been surprised by stewarts 'bravado' this past few weeks. he seems so certain that we are headed for cold that some of his posts would be said to be ramps if it weren't for who he is. you are right feb1991, he doesnt always call cold so to see such confidence in his posts should tell us something re the chances of cold. of course, we could end up with a near miss and many would post 'told you so' without understanding the overall dynamics of what had occured.

[MR EXTREMES]

this is a fair point. i have been surprised by stewarts 'bravado' this past few weeks. he seems so certain that we are headed for cold that some of his posts would be said to be ramps if it weren't for who he is. you are right feb1991, he doesnt always call cold so to see such confidence in his posts should tell us something re the chances of cold. of course, we could end up with a near miss and many would post 'told you so' without understanding the overall dynamics of what had occured.

yes indeed i hope for all our sakes hes right.

there would for sure be a smile on my face and his i expect.

would be nice to see gp gain on his status as a very good reader of the dynamics of our weather and its workings.

[Barry12]

it may well be fi is feasible but exact trends are not!

so count your chickens before they hatch is a fare statement i think.

You was writing the whole of December off on the 13th November, wasn't talking about just this possible cold spell

but you are right, wouldn't be surprised to see a complete turn around again tomorrow

Edited November 13, 2012 by Barry95

[SnowObsessor90]

Well this time last the vibes we were getting from GP him certainly weren't anything like they are now so fingers crossed.....

[feb1991blizzard]

im not insulting his good work and this is a totally different set of teleconnections to last year.

so to say hes going to be right is a bit of a leap of faith.

although im happy to return and take my hat of if he is correct.

I agree of course he isn't guaranteed to be right, find me even a short range forecaster who is guaranteed to be right, let a lone a long range one and you would have found an extremely rich man!, i would still say though that if there is one individual forecaster i would choose to have on board it would be GP, of course another thing to bare in mind is, he has not said we are going to have a country wide blizzard for a whole month, some people do have a tendency to assume such, just as soon as he puts his anologue / model / teleconnective pressure patterns up, so agreed with you we must exersise caution as im sure GP does himself at such range, really looking forward to his 3 monther though, anyone know when its out?

Edited November 13, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

this is a fair point. i have been surprised by stewarts 'bravado' this past few weeks. he seems so certain that we are headed for cold that some of his posts would be said to be ramps if it weren't for who he is. you are right feb1991, he doesnt always call cold so to see such confidence in his posts should tell us something re the chances of cold. of course, we could end up with a near miss and many would post 'told you so' without understanding the overall dynamics of what had occured.

Yes BA, i seem to remember him forecasting an abrupt end to the 2010 Dec cold spell and the new year being mild, when a lot of others went for a 62/63 winter.

[Geordiesnow]

But some of the more knowledgeable posters were suggesting the start of November could be "interesting" on a cold POV, as it happened, the opposite has occured and very little cold weather has reached us so far this month. Now we are all looking at the end of the month for something cold, even the BBC/UKMO are indicating at something but did the latter say that October/November, the risk of easterlies were higher yet in the end, the winds were more Northerly/North-Westerly and so far, there has been very little sustained easterly winds so far this Autumn.

Basically speaking, don't take all these forecasts too literally no matter who they are or their knowledge on the weather because there is always going to be a risk of a human error however the computer models at short range don't lie and the medium range trends do normally stay if albeit the detail changes which could have impacts down the line so unless theres a sign of a cold shot around 96-144 hours, then lets not stress about what December/January/February might bring!

[feb1991blizzard]

But some of the more knowledgeable posters were suggesting the start of November could be "interesting" on a cold POV, as it happened, the opposite has occured and very little cold weather has reached us so far this month. Now we are all looking at the end of the month for something cold, even the BBC/UKMO are indicating at something but did the latter say that October/November, the risk of easterlies were higher yet in the end, the winds were more Northerly/North-Westerly and so far, there has been very little sustained easterly winds so far this Autumn.

Basically speaking, don't take all these forecasts too literally no matter who they are or their knowledge on the weather because there is always going to be a risk of a human error however the computer models at short range don't lie and the medium range trends do normally stay if albeit the detail changes which could have impacts down the line so unless theres a sign of a cold shot around 96-144 hours, then lets not stress about what December/January/February might bring!

Lets TRY not to stress about it of course, speculation and discussion, though is only going to improve the chances of someone mastering seasonal forecasting completely though one day, if no one discusses things then no one will learn, of course, there are areas of the UK in the next week probably where the forecasts will be wrong so of course December not nailed.

[gottolovethisweather]

I feel this will apply to most of us, in that, the more each one of us watches and listens to others, the more we all learn and benefit from each other’s knowledge. As a case in point, simply watch GPs video from the other day, jot down a few notes and it feels like GP allows us into his world. OK, my statement could sound like hyperbole, but I am still on a steep learning curve in my understanding of this climate science malarkey and therefore, I think it is still very relevant.

As for now, where are we on this 13th November. The important thing to remember was that Stewart clearly stated his video was not a forecast, and therefore we must patiently await his LRF. Only then, can our main man set our minds to rest with regard to how he sees things developing further on. Intriguingly though, with the very unusual stratospheric signals and the associated high level blocking, alongside split polar vortex developments, we are undoubtedly slowly unravelling a most fascinating trend as we head slowly into winter.

Edited November 13, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

To further boost our expectations as we head into the final stretch before winter, I feel these two posts from the MOD thread are especially relevant as to where the trend is heading.

*slightly technical posts, but I am hopeful most of us will understand what the two posters are implying*

Things are looking up as we head into the final third of November and most probably into December.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74919-model-output-discussion-12z-07112012/page__st__680#entry2403310

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74919-model-output-discussion-12z-07112012/page__st__680#entry2403352

As ever, don't be afraid to ask other more knowledgeable members for guidance.

[mcweather]

nope but i do see from my experience on net weather the whole lot collapsing ok when its within t144 then i will believe what im seeing.

not to be critical but gp is not always right

In my time here on netweather I can recall very few if any times when GP didn't call the pattern correctly.

The point is unlike so many other so called a forecasters he doesn't always call cold and is almost as reticent as the Meto to get carried away, so when GP gets bullish about something its worth sitting up and taking notice whether its three weeks away or not.

[Methuselah]

I don't think it's necessarily that GP never gets it wrong. It's just that, when he does, he's up-front about it...Which is more than can be said for many others.

[Aaron]

But some of the more knowledgeable posters were suggesting the start of November could be "interesting" on a cold POV, as it happened, the opposite has occured and very little cold weather has reached us so far this month

The start of the month has been very cold, 2C below normal, wasn't it? That trend will reverse now, but it was still a very chilly start to November - snow in the SW, and I recorded a maximum temperature of 2.9C, which is cold for mid winter let alone early November.

[gottolovethisweather]

I don't think it's necessarily that GP never gets it wrong. It's just that, when he does, he's up-front about it...Which is more than can be said for many others.

What, he's not a god like status symbol, RP? Having said that, even god gets it wrong, if I were to upload a picture of my ugly mug, you'd see what I meant.

We are in danger of this thread becoming a personal examination of Stewart Rampling, so perhaps we best leave it there. What do I expect from winter? I expect mine and many other people's dreams will be fulfilled and unfulfilled on countless differing occasions.

Edited November 13, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[shotski]

Oh how I wish the ECM went out 2 more days, t-240 is a tease. One thing for sure is that the Polar vortex is in pieces what ever model

you look at tonight. There may well be record low temperatures in the stratosphere for the time of year but the vortex still looks

fragile.

[Snowman.]

Ohhhh this looks gooooood.

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

And

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

If we do get some cold it should be fairly decent!

Edited November 13, 2012 by SN0WM4N

[EML Network]

Not sure what effect sunspots have on the coming Winter, but it's certainly beginning to ramp up a little

[Snowman.]

Not sure what effect sunspots have on the coming Winter, but it's certainly beginning to ramp up a little

Solar maximum not a rare site plus the lag effect which a year or so but for solar maximum it's still low though.

http://solarscience....n_predict_l.gif

Compare it too 2000.

Edited November 13, 2012 by SN0WM4N

[summer blizzard]

Solar flux is still at moderate to low levels, not yet even beating Nov 11.

The current solar output will not be a problem.

[feb1991blizzard]

WATCH THIS 18z FOR A SECOND NIGHT RUNNING - RIPSNORTER COMING HERE.

LOOK AT THE TROUGH DISRUPTION COMPARED TO THE 12z

EDIT : Dont think its gonna be as good now though.

Still might be good deep in fi.

Oh dear, 18z is rubbish, lets all get dispondant now and say winters over.

Edited November 13, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Snowy Easterlies]

WATCH THIS 18z FOR A SECOND NIGHT RUNNING - RIPSNORTER COMING HERE.

LOOK AT THE TROUGH DISRUPTION COMPARED TO THE 12z

EDIT : Dont think its gonna be as good now though.

Still might be good deep in fi.

Oh dear, 18z is rubbish, lets all get dispondant now and say winters over.

yep, we might get a dusting overnight in april, but before that uncle barty is here to stay, might as well give up model watching now

[garbagebags]

The 00z this morning make appalling viewing

[Snowstorm1]

The 00z this morning make appalling viewing

Please use charts to make your viewpoint? and can you also explain why its appalling? cheers