Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[Weather-history]

John if this Terry isn't Ian Brown I'll eat my hat, if you remember from last year Ian mentioned numerous times about guys from the US. Still if Ian would rather play games then that's up to him, he never bothered me with his posts as we are all entitled to our opinions.

When I think of Ian Brown, I remember these posts by Ian Brown made on the January 2008 in an article I made on the January 1958 northerly plunge in UKWeatherworld

"Very interesting Kev, those deep purples over Scandi are now only reserved for Greenland and Greece is mild. What a reversal in the m odern era"

My response: Thats just plain incorrect, Ian. Why do you persist on making sweeping statements that are factually incorrect. Its not true they are now only reserved for Greenland.

20th February 2007

http://www.wetterzentral...007/Rrea00120070220.gif

"Fair enough, but one of the major changes in the m odern era has been lower heights over Greenland and quite remarkably, this winter has seen no northerly plunge and last winter didn't either until March.

Keep these sort of threads coming though, nostalgia is all we have left really, as once again we look at the models and see the 528 dam line heading through the Med again!

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/51526-january-1958-wide-variation-in-temperatures/

This was during January 2008, then came winters 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11.....

Incidentally I suspect Ian Brown is posting under the alias The FOTME on TheWeatherOutlook.

Edited November 12, 2012 by Weather-history

[EML Network]

Well, the Met Office LR Projections, have pretty much followed my own line of thinking for this Winter...of course it's still only December, so there's plenty of time for thing to change....but even the most hardy cold lover has got to admit that things are not looking good.

.

[EML Network]

It's not all doom and gloom though, just a shame the CFS is as reliable as booking DJ Sy and MC Storm right now

Edited November 12, 2012 by EML Network

[NorthernRab]

Well, the Met Office LR Projections, have pretty much followed my own line of thinking for this Winter...of course it's still only December, so there's plenty of time for thing to change....but even the most hardy cold lover has got to admit that things are not looking good.

It's not looking THAT bad!

[Nights King]

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

If nothing disrupts that trend, then like last year, December could turn out to be zonal, mild, wet and windy with active low pressures...

[snowblues]

Looking further ahead for an easterly to set up,are we looking out for the block to the east to start moving west over the coming week and watch out for them fronts out of greenland or newfoundland to go on more of a direct southerly track over time, to get the undercut.I no its early days but is that the basics to look out for. thanks

[Eskimo]

It's not all doom and gloom though, just a shame the CFS is as reliable as booking DJ Sy and MC Storm right now

Looks like a fleeting northerly to me, needs to put some meat on if it's to turn into a cold spell.

[Don]

Another kick in the teeth for Winter from the updated Met Office charts! Worrying for them to flip at this stage it has to be said, although I was half expecting it. Just hope they've picked up on the wrong trend! I suppose the only saving grace is that they have been consistent up until now with northern blocking and they will return to that idea....

Edited November 12, 2012 by Don

[bradymk]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php The latest CFS daily is certainly very blocked for December however as we all know this model changes run to run.

[blizzard81]

Well, the met probability charts still show a slightly below average winter temperature wise as the most likely outcome as

opposed to average or above. The fact that the pressure ensembles do not marry up to the likely temperature outcomes is,

quite frankly, unnacceptable as far as I am concerned. There should be a clear correlation between the two. The fact that

they do not simply fudges the seasonal forecast and totally detracts any sense of clarity for any lay person reading the seasonal forecast.

[Cheshire Freeze]

When I think of Ian Brown, I remember these posts by Ian Brown made on the January 2008 in an article I made on the January 1958 northerly plunge in UKWeatherworld

"Very interesting Kev, those deep purples over Scandi are now only reserved for Greenland and Greece is mild. What a reversal in the m odern era"

My response: Thats just plain incorrect, Ian. Why do you persist on making sweeping statements that are factually incorrect. Its not true they are now only reserved for Greenland.

20th February 2007

http://www.wetterzen...00120070220.gif

"Fair enough, but one of the major changes in the m odern era has been lower heights over Greenland and quite remarkably, this winter has seen no northerly plunge and last winter didn't either until March.

Keep these sort of threads coming though, nostalgia is all we have left really, as once again we look at the models and see the 528 dam line heading through the Med again!

http://www.ukweather...n-temperatures/

This was during January 2008, then came winters 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11.....

Incidentally I suspect Ian Brown is posting under the alias The FOTME on TheWeatherOutlook.

One of the most persistent WUMs I've ever had the misfortune of knowing on a forum. I can only presume he's still banned and therefore having to post under an alias; either that or playing silly beggars. From posting style it's not as if we don't all know it's him. I personally wouldn't mind if he just came out and said he prefers it mild rather than winding all and sundry up. He seems a clever guy underneath it all.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

One of the most persistent WUMs I've ever had the misfortune of knowing on a forum. I can only presume he's still banned and therefore having to post under an alias; either that or playing silly beggars. From posting style it's not as if we don't all know it's him. I personally wouldn't mind if he just came out and said he prefers it mild rather than winding all and sundry up. He seems a clever guy underneath it all.

I still think Ian is the biggest cold/snow fan about, just exceptionally negative, pessimistic

[blizzard81]

http://www.meteociel...cfse_cartes.php The latest CFS daily is certainly very blocked for December however as we all know this model changes run to run.

Just looked through that and my word, what an absolutely stonking Christmas that would be - magical.

[Bristawl Si]

GP and Chion are still calling for decent winter synoptics, Chion after being cautious for a while seems to be coming on board with the cold potential too so I don't think we have too much to worry about.

True but the meto are no mugs either, despite what some of the soothsayers on here say.

Computer weather models are so unpredictable and often change 'face' - sometimes they spot trends days/weeks out, other times they chop and change.

Edit: It's only November 12th - coldest weather in UK with snow, esp in the South, doesnt usually manifest until January/February - 09/10, 10/11 & 81/82 generally exceptions in my lifetime.

Edited November 12, 2012 by Bristle boy

[Liam J]

Not looking to good atm on the potential for any cold weather manifesting soon, a lot of speculation on the various models about what 'may happen' regarding any height rises. All models really not bringing anything that would pass as cold weather any nearer from the depths of FI, certainly not the cold weather that many are hoping for anyway. I can recall many times in the past where chasing cold synoptics beyond T240 even T168 hours more often than not ends in tears and disappointment, with resulting toys flying around wholesale.

Quite concerning at this stage to see the UKMET probability charts flip, they are produced using data analysed from the new GLOSEA4 seasonal forecast model. and updated monthly I believe, also GLOSEA4 takes into account the role of the stratosphere and also performs well with AO & NAO predictions.

http://www.ecmwf.int...ions/Hewson.pdf

Patience may well be needed here for the more hardcore coldies in the ranks.

Edited November 12, 2012 by Liam J

[John Badrick]

Well, the Met Office LR Projections, have pretty much followed my own line of thinking for this Winter...of course it's still only December, so there's plenty of time for thing to change....but even the most hardy cold lover has got to admit that things are not looking good.

.

Er what?? We Are NOT even half way through November. Have I fallen asleep and woken up in December or something...we are still over 2 weeks away from winter even starting. I think your getting ahead of yourself if you think it's December. Things are looking fine for autumn.

Edited November 12, 2012 by John Badrick

[Methuselah]

Anyone know what Joe B is currently saying?

[EML Network]

Er what?? We Are NOT even half way through November. Have I fallen asleep and woken up in December or something...we are still over 2 weeks away from winter even starting. I think your getting ahead of yourself if you think it's December. Things are looking fine for autumn.

HA HA HA oops, yes I should have said "It's still only November" ...my bad....back is to blame

[AWD]

Anyone know what Joe B is currently saying?

He's still voicing his opinions on the US Election & Democracy. Little weather related stuff.

[EML Network]

Looks like a fleeting northerly to me, needs to put some meat on if it's to turn into a cold spell.

there's no pleasing some people !!....

"That's just what Jesus said sir"

[Bristawl Si]

Anyone know what Joe B is currently saying?

He's on a weather enthusiasts website called weatherbell.com - access to his views are premium i.e. subscription

[AWD]

Anyone know what Joe B is currently saying?

There is one semi interesting tweet from him;

Wow! Check this pic out.. snowcover ahead of record 07-08 pace http://t.co/iflFgp19

[Cloud 10]

Just looked through that and my word, what an absolutely stonking Christmas that would be - magical.

Yes please!

[Summer Sun]

The BBC / Met office have issued a new video with regards to the start of December

Colder weather to start December?

Inevitably there is a lot of uncertainty around the forecast for the end of the month and early December. Long range forecasting is a complex activity. Jay Wynne explains our latest thoughts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20297630

The current summary for the end of November is

Lots of uncertainty

Drier

Brighter

Colder

Edited November 12, 2012 by Gavin.

[A Winter's Tale]

Interesting video from BBC Weather discussing the uncertainty about later this month and into December.

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20297630

Jay Wyne mentions the possible scenarios of high pressure across Scandinavia and low pressure south west of the British Isles but for the time being, there is no clear signal from the models regarding what the end of November is looking like synoptically.

Edited November 12, 2012 by A Winter's Tale