Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[CanadaAl]

Not sure if i'm looking at the right strat page but NOAA CPC's strat temp graph has shown a huge jump in strat temp from below normal to normal over the last day or so, Hasn't appeared in the Japanese one yet though. Will put my ramp away..

[Barry12]

some quite good statements coming out in last couple of days regarding blocking and the upcoming winter, which has surprised me really seeing as the strat is not really playing ball, maybe because its elongated

I'm not, a cold stratosphere just decreases the chances. LRF could just be based on the strat if it was.

Edited November 13, 2012 by Barry95

[Met4Cast]

Wonder how accurate the models will be in 20 years, as our knowledge and technology gets better.

I honestly can't see them improving much beyond what they currently are, at least not for longer range forecasting anyway. I think it'll be a couple of 100 years before we know even half of the factors that go into our weather.

I think we'll probably see some improvements in the shorter term forecasting though.

[Jasmine]

Most people say it will be a 62/63

[Eskimo]

Most people say it will be a 62/63

[Aaron]

Most people say it will be a 62/63

Who?

[Jasmine]

. You Take That As A Funny Thing? Don't Believe a word I think ii will be a 2010 because the bees Hived Early and Squrriels are starting to get fuzzy.

Who?

I have No Idea

[Aaron]

Lol, alright then.

[Eskimo]

. You Take That As A Funny Thing? Don't Believe a word I think ii will be a 2010 because the bees Hived Early and Squrriels are starting to get fuzzy.

I have No Idea

I don't take the winter of '63 as funny, I take the idea of it being like '63 as being the funny part. However who's to know we won't see similar conditions? I might be eating my own laughter come march.

[UV-RAY]

Excellent model viewing this evening, signs of the PV being exterminated with height rises pushing into Greenland.

[feb1991blizzard]

Excellent model viewing this evening, signs of the PV being exterminated with height rises pushing into Greenland.

Interesting ECM viewing, i bet that while we are all asking the question - East or North?, whats the betting we are all wrong and we get a powerhouse Southerly!!

[AWD]

Excellent model viewing this evening, signs of the PV being exterminated with height rises pushing into Greenland.

Taking it at face value, the GFS output is indeed showing a very positive start to winter. However, its FI and we need a hell of a lot more support & consistency before we can start to think the unthinkable yet.

[garbagebags]

Most people say it will be a 62/63

No, no I don't think they are.

"Most" people are saying it might be a colder to slightly colder than average winter.

62/63 was Exceptionally and record breaking cold.

[jethro]

. You Take That As A Funny Thing? Don't Believe a word I think ii will be a 2010 because the bees Hived Early and Squrriels are starting to get fuzzy.

I have No Idea

Bees respond to the weather in the moment, if it's cold or wet, they don't fly - if it's warm, sunny or dry, they do. As for Squirrels, I had a pet one which lived in the house all year round. The house is centrally heated and on the warm side of average, the Squirrel had a cosy bed to sleep in but year after year she moulted in the Spring and grew a nice thick Winter coat in the Autumn. She never had a shortage of food but she still always made stockpiles around the house - under rugs, under cushions, behind the sofa, you name, she hid it there, that's just what Squirrels do.

Animals and insects react to what is currently happening with the weather, they don't predict weeks or months ahead.

[shotski]

BLOCK anyone?

600 miles further north and yes I would take, but on this occasion "No deal noel"

Looks too much like last winters charts for me.

Edited November 13, 2012 by shotski

[feb1991blizzard]

I take back anything negative about GEFS, i thought they were looking carp out to 192, some really good options on the table, i doubt they will look stonking on the 850s graph, but a lot of differing options on how to get cold, i am would not say i am completely on board yet but im inching closer.

Edited November 13, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[MR EXTREMES]

looks like my stay on the fence has been the right move.

im not going cold in dec perhaps jan and feb.

[Barry12]

looks like my stay on the fence has been the right move.

im not going cold in dec perhaps jan and feb.

Because of one chart?

It's GP fence what's of interest to me!

[Eskimo]

looks like my stay on the fence has been the right move.

im not going cold in dec perhaps jan and feb.

Excuse me for getting involved but why are you wiping away the whole of December?

Edited November 13, 2012 by PerfectStorm

[bluearmy]

looks like my stay on the fence has been the right move.

im not going cold in dec perhaps jan and feb.

badboy, contrary to your post, the runs are currently firming up on cold for early december, not trending away. whether it would be sustained is another question

[weather is fun]

Have you guys seen the AO my god that is some serious tanking going on never seen it so low. 2010 anyone?

[Barry12]

Excuse me for getting involved but why are you wiping away the whole of December?

He's obviuosly psychic! duh..

[Andy_]

Can i just add that anything shown in FI is feasible, which is why we didn't see any notable eye candy for November-December last year, as it was ultimately unfeasible.

The models don't just output what they feel, they output a [insert word beginning with f and ending with e] outcome

[MR EXTREMES]

He's obviuosly psychic! duh..

nope but i do see from my experience on net weather the whole lot collapsing ok when its within t144 then i will believe what im seeing.

not to be critical but gp is not always right

[MR EXTREMES]

it may well be fi is feasible but exact trends are not!

so count your chickens before they hatch is a fare statement i think.