Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[Snowy Easterlies]

uppers are about -8, so cold enough for snow i would think, but of course these charts are in deep FI, it would be a great end to the month if it came off though

[Met4Cast]

Also worth mentioning with uppers of -10c coming over the relatively warm North Sea we'd be seeing more organised bands of snowfall/frequent heavy snow showers developing in the flow.

Of course, pure conjecture

[124alex]

How would sw england do?

[feb1991blizzard]

Maybe.. but my experience of easterlies are not so great.. also you asked a question about the winters of 1981 or 1986? I don't remember if much snow fell in those winters, 1986 was very cold in Feb with a sub-zero mean.

I suppose the best of all time delivered more for the SE, short sea track so colder uppers maintained more, i would say though its not really one size fits all, what i mean by that is it all depends on exact position and orientation of any block, how stronger pressure gradient and where any trough to the South sets up and whether any little occlusions can track Westwards, lots of factors involved, with really really low uppers from an Easterly and a strong wind, there is no reason why even Manchester could not get a dumping, i was there and only missed out by 8 miles in 09, and that was not as potent as 80s and 90s Easterlies, this place got absolutely battered though, a foot in places.

[Karl83]

Wow just seen the gfs run... Great to see even if it's FI.

[Summer Sun]

A 60% chance of the 850 hpa being average or below, not bad

You sure about 60%? looks like 40% to me though I may be wrong

[bobbydog]

if only.....

[Heisenberg]

if only.....

BANK!! - We can dream right.....

[Jackfrost]

A delicious setup, but one that would be largely useless for much of Scotland and Ireland and anywhere south and west of a line from the Pennines to Birmingham, and then down to the central part of the south coast.

Edited November 13, 2012 by Jackfrost

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well Iv just took a minute to view the latest cfs charts via weather online and I have to say apart from the first few frames December is very blocked indeed, a ridge in the Atlantic throughout, alternating between Greenland And Eastern Canada throughout , a western based NAO at times, with troughing either on us or to the northeast of us, the trend is there for some very interesting and at times very wintry weather, not sure what charts other ppl post but Iv only ever used the weather online ones which shows the pressure patterns. But from what I can see there is lots of things to be positive about.

[Mark Neal.]

Well Iv just took a minute to view the latest cfs charts via weather online and I have to say apart from the first few frames December is very blocked indeed, a ridge in the Atlantic throughout, alternating between Greenland And Eastern Canada throughout , a western based NAO at times, with troughing either on us or to the northeast of us, the trend is there for some very interesting and at times very wintry weather, not sure what charts other ppl post but Iv only ever used the weather online ones which shows the pressure patterns. But from what I can see there is lots of things to be positive about.

Positive vibes in the last day or so, no doubt will be more pain before gain soon...

[garbagebags]

BLOCK anyone?

[throwoff]

COME ON COLD!

[cheeky_monkey]

COME ON COLD!

got down to -25c here on Sat night...just saying

[SnowObsessor90]

As has been said this is an absolutely crucial period coming up over the next or so. Let's just hope this simply just a matter of the models teasing us again which they've been prone been to do more than a few times in the past.

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

Although i'm new here , i think i'm beggining to understand the odd thing ! Just a thought and I may be way off mark , but all this talk about the very cold ( colder than normal ) Stratosphere , being the main thing that is stopping too much optimisym . With it being so cold at present , when we suddenly have a rapid warming , it may take the strat tempurature just back to average or just above rather than the normal well above during a cold spell . So could it be that when the change happens , the cold spell is made all the more potent because its being help by a colder strat ? Not explained it very well but hopefully you'll all get the gist !

[Vertical Limit]

got down to -25c here on Sat night...just saying

Blimey, now that is cold CM. I've only experienced that kind of temperature once and that was skiing in France. about 20 years ago....Back in December 2010, my location got down to about -12c or so for a few nights and the one thing I do remember doing was continually getting up a ladder to scrape off the several inches of ice stuck off the Satellite dish. It was enough to block the signal...now that's blocking!!

[Karl83]

got down to -25c here on Sat night...just saying

Is that it?

[NorthernRab]

Although i'm new here , i think i'm beggining to understand the odd thing ! Just a thought and I may be way off mark , but all this talk about the very cold ( colder than normal ) Stratosphere , being the main thing that is stopping too much optimisym . With it being so cold at present , when we suddenly have a rapid warming , it may take the strat tempurature just back to average or just above rather than the normal well above during a cold spell . So could it be that when the change happens , the cold spell is made all the more potent because its being help by a colder strat ? Not explained it very well but hopefully you'll all get the gist !

"If the starting point is lower, i.e making the jump from a cold stratosphere to a warm stratosphere larger, will that encourage more blocking?" is the question I think you're asking here? I.e is it the the amount by which the stratosphere warms or is it how warm it gets that is important? I think the answer is the latter, but I'll leave it for someone else with a bit more experience to answer your question with a bit more detail.

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

That was wordered far better than my effort , but was exactly what i meant , thankyou !

[chionomaniac]

That was wordered far better than my effort , but was exactly what i meant , thankyou !

And I would say that the answer in theory is no, it will just mean that any wave activity will have to be repeated or extremely strong (like Jan/Feb 2009) to get the same effect as if we were starting from a warmer point. (Given all other variants were constant in the equation)

[Heisenberg]

An interesting look back at past Christmas days from the Meto today. This chart shows how many stations around the country saw snow on the ground and snow falling on the day.

[johnholmes]

Has anyone ever looked at how large the temperature jump/rise is and then done any matching with cold spells?

[Continental Climate]

some quite good statements coming out in last couple of days regarding blocking and the upcoming winter, which has surprised me really seeing as the strat is not really playing ball, maybe because its elongated

[Barry12]

Wonder how accurate the models will be in 20 years, as our knowledge and technology gets better.