South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 12th 2012>

[Eskimo]

Temp 7.5C and still foggy

[john pike]

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=144647

this chart is for got to love this weather

[Snowangel-MK]

.......and now the cat is out of the bag, you know what that means.

but that isn't one of my cats

Of ron i meant

Ron who ?

It's dark here as well floaty but I think that has something to do with the fact it's wine five o'clock

[Jasmine]

Not too bad to start, deteriorating as the week marches on?

Any Wintry Showers

[Steve C]

The Hi Res Model here suggests to me that most of us are in for nuisance value rain only tomorrow, apart from along the south coast. Here is the total precipitation it indicates until midnight on Saturday.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Had absolute manic shower here, really belted it down with fog too, was crazy!

[Floatylight]

but that isn't one of my cats

Ron who ?

It's dark here as well floaty but I think that has something to do with the fact it's wine five o'clock

indeed it is.

ron barcardi...........my xmas drink x

[gottolovethisweather]

The Hi Res Model here suggests to me that most of us are in for nuisance value rain only tomorrow, apart from along the south coast. Here is the total precipitation it indicates until midnight on Saturday.

Certainly seems so, I badly misjudged that one then, according to yours and Coast's posts. looks like another gloomy one though.

indeed it is.

ron barcardi...........my xmas drink x

Sounds like an Italian footballer.

Edited November 16, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Eskimo]

Visibility has dropped to 50m here, very foggy!

[Lauren]

The fog was insane on the way home. Like driving through a cloud.

[john pike]

gfs 12z fi charts

nice to see

[Eskimo]

gfs 12z fi charts

nice to see

Snow showers a plenty along the whole of the UK coastline. Showers digging a little inland due to the strong northerly winds....bank!

[Keraunic]

Had a drop of rain in Ippy earlier. According to rain alarm there's more on the way. Feel like I've been living in a cement mixer all day it's been so GREY. :o

Edited November 16, 2012 by Keraunophile

[dubmuffin]

a quick look at saturday

rain overnight friday and continueing saturday morning

saturday lunchtime shows front still over the south east

expect showers around that time

sunday 00 shows the front has cleared the south east

now the tricky bit is working out how long it will take that front

on the 12 hr chart to clear

certainly cleared by midnight. hopefully clears by early evening

gonna go down to radar this to be exact

Thanks for posting the charts, been busy covering the woodpile so I'll be glued to raintoday tomorrow. If the fire is big enough maybe we can dry the rain out before it reaches the ground

[john pike]

nice to see gfs main run was not a cold outlier

[snowblues]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121116/12/360/npsh500.png Wish some of this blocking into Greenland would start showing on earler frames times .Always teasing us. Edited November 16, 2012 by snowblues

[Ben_Cambs]

Fog hasn't formed here yet though judging by reports from other members I wouldn't be suprised to see some fog forming over the next few hours. Will be doing another model summary tonight though I won't be posting it till quite late.

[Eskimo]

Visibility now 40m, can't see the end of my street, and it's a short street!

[john pike]

very good looking ecm 240 chart

the low pressure to our north west is being pushed away from the uk

this in turn will start to pull the much colder air to our north east towards europe

and fingers crossed towards the uk note the block to our east-north east

a nice chart from the various ensemble members

[Summer of 76]

John, I seem to remember a couple of years ago we had a cold spell towards the end of November, was that the same year when it snowed a week before December

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=6&carte=0&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

gefs control run

haha

[john pike]

hi chris that was 2010 which was the set up from the east

which was only picked up very late by the models

europe stayed cold as well for ages

[Summer of 76]

Thanks John, funny after i posted that I came across an article about how cold it was for switching on the Xmas lights in town, fingers crossed

[Ben_Cambs]

It's turning increasingly misty here though no where near as dense as Wednesday evening. Here's my model summary based mainly on tonight's output.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

Synoptic situation for Monday shows a return of a milder Tropical Maritime air mass with a fairly deep LP system just off the coast of Scotland. Before then, after a foggy night in places tonight, tomorrow will be a fairly damp day with a cold front crossing the region, and will be relatively slow moving. Once the rain clears, this will introduce the polar maritime air mass. Temperatures reaching up to 12C, before the PM air mass arrive; leading to a mainly clear night on Saturday, with temperatures possibly falling to freezing in rural areas. Sunday should be a very nice, crisp day with plenty of sunshine and blue sky though much cooler than of late with maxima of around 6-8C.

Monday will be a cloudy day with an increasing breeze through the day, temperatures maxing up to 11C. Winds may gust up to 40mph in places. In the evening, a narrow band of rain will cross the region. Tuesday may be a very wet day at this stage, with temperatures maxing out at around 11-12C.

UKMO T+120: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

GFS T+120: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

ECM T+120: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Mid-week, HP over the continent may just have enough influence to keep the weather mainly dry over Wednesday and Thursday. A few showers cannot be ruled out however. Temperatures ranging from 8-11C maxima during the day and falling to 4-5C in any clearer spells at night.

GFS T+168: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

ECM T+168: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

There is change by next Friday however as the weak ridge of HP is forced east by an area of LP. There are key differences between GFS and ECM, GFS has a much deeper centre (c.985mb) compared to ECM (c.1005mb). The GFS scenario would provide some rather windy and wet conditions with longer periods of rain and showers behind, while the ECM scenario would deliver some rainfall but the winds would be much lighter. Temperatures would be around average for the time of year, possibly a touch below at times.

ECM ens mean (12z) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Perhaps more settled weather a little further out, with temperatures around average or even slightly below.

GFS 12z ens Bedfordshire: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20121116/12/t850Bedfordshire.png

After a mild first half of next week, the mean has temperatures falling back to around or slightly below the average for the time of year.

[Dexter29]

Driving home from work and hit some very dense patches of fog. It looked like plumes of smoke every so often against the M25 motorway street lights. Very pretty to watch float over as I was driving.