South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 12th 2012>

[john pike]

ukmo raw charts for 12z

i can see a battle between high pressure to our east

and low pressure to our west

i can see high pressure winning this at present

around the 24th could start to see a north easterly flow starting

to benefit from this we will need to see europe cool down a lot

however if this high pressure can get a foot in here it can stick around

for quite a while (i am not talking warm high pressure here)

this is only my opinion at present

[john pike]

this fax is for 1800 hours saturday

the weather front is just touching the south east corner

think it will start to dry out by then

dubmuffin assuming these are right it should be dry from around 5 pm

sunday 00 chart looks the same as saturday 1800

chilly and mainly dry except the very very far south east

sunday looks dry and chilly now

high pressure is now further south

sunday night looks dry but windy

not quite as cold

monday looks like windy with the odd shower

warmer flow so not as cold low teen temperatures

tuesday looks identical to monday

note the low pressure heading south

wednesday looks warmish again

poss low teens

windy and showers on and off throughout the day

note the 2 differences between the fax chart and ukmo charts

the fax chart shows the high to our east retreat

the ukmo chart shows high pressure moving towards the uk

this is what is making the forecast for the latter part of the week very tricky

we want to see the low pressure head south under us or away from us

i think confused .com for next week at present

however i still go for colder weather from 27th onwards (my opinion)

[Ice Day]

a nice chart from the various ensemble members

To my very much untrained eye, that looks a corking chart for our region. There does seem to be a tentative confidence building on the Model forum that the end of November could get interesting?! Fingers crossed!

[john pike]

To my very much untrained eye, that looks a corking chart for our region. There does seem to be a tentative confidence building on the Model forum that the end of November could get interesting?! Fingers crossed!

hi ice day

all what i try to find is for us in the south east

heres a few nice looking charts

still see a mean temperature drop from 27th onwards

interesting model viewing days on the way

[Iceni]

Haven't had time to look at all the models and forecasts and whatever the stratosphere is doing, so this is gut feeling, But it struck me this afternoon that November 2010 was exactly like this.

I remember thinking, oh no another mild, damp dismal winter and feeling really depressed… then a couple of weeks later I was trudging down to the village shop in the snow towing a sledge for the shopping. You just never can tell.

[Dexter29]

Morning everyone,

Dull damp and gloomy here this morning.

Looking at the radar not as much rain heading our way, was expecting to be a rather wet day going by TV forecasts yesterday. Not that I'm complaining.

Have a good Saturday

[Coast]

Morning Regional dwellers!!!

How are we all this morning? Same old, same old out here in Sussex with a proper grey and grim sky and mushy damp 12.5 °C.

To be honest I can't see it changing much during the daylight hours with this huge band of could over us today:

Edited November 17, 2012 by Coast

[Summer of 76]

Morning everyone,

Dull damp here, we may have to change the Christmas Meal date according to the Daily Express

http://www.express.c...00-years-on-way

I quote from someone on uk.sci.weather

Here's a quote from last year (Express on November 2nd 2011):

"James Madden, of Exacta Weather, warned the theme of this winter would

be “very cold and snowy across many parts of the UKâ€. He said there

would be “frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to

January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average

temperaturesâ€.

And this was after the Mail Online had quoted him in September 2011:

"James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said: ‘I expect to see the first

signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or

November in certain parts of the UK."

Perhaps James Madden thinks that if he says the same thing year after

year, it will eventually become true!

Could this be the year

Edited November 17, 2012 by Chris Mantle

[Coast]

Dull damp here, we may have to change the Christmas Meal date according to the Daily Express

http://www.express.c...00-years-on-way

Not unless you're planning on moving it to Scotland!!

[Snowangel-MK]

Dull damp here, we may have to change the Christmas Meal date according to the Daily Express

Don't worry Chris I have everything under control, it will start to snow at exactly 18:00 hrs so there is enough on the ground for a snowball fight in the car park after the meal and it will all be gone by morning

Not unless you're planning on moving it to Scotland!!

Not this time.....but maybe another year

....anyway morning all,

It's a bit of a damp squib here today but that was to be expected due to my hair appointment this afternoon, oh well

[Dexter29]

I still even now find it absolutely absurd that the Express and some other national press still continue to print utter garbage.

As posted above they also made exactly the same predictions for last winter and look what happened.

It completely leads joe public down the garden path, I know it's only weather and nobody is harmed or affected by this nonsense but IMO it shouldn't be allowed to print unless strong evidence is their to back it up. Eg. A week before snow and a severe cold spell is forecast.

[chilly milly]

It was 12c this morning when I woke up. Now down to 9.7c. Feeling damp and drizzly out there this morning. Thankfully I have nothing much planned outside today, other than a visit to the shops. Will be mostly indoors baking.

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Another grey and totally boring day. One is getting a bit peed off with this dullnes.

Have a fab day, everyone. Even though its dull outside, let it be forever sunshine in your soul. (Now where on Earth did that come from? :o )

[Coast]

One is getting a bit peed off with this dullnes.

One?? We all are!!!! :lol:

I still even now find it absolutely absurd that the Express and some other national press still continue to print utter garbage.

But it sells Dexter

[Summer of 76]

Sure does, I bet they have an offer in side for thermal gloves that keep you warm down to minus twenty. good price, six coupons from next weeks mail plus £4.99 postage and packing

[lottiekent]

Damp murky 12c - boring!

[gottolovethisweather]

9.1c and sunny intervals, hopefully cooling down as the day goes on.

[Steve C]

Same grotty weather here as everyone else is experiencing. Edit, apart from gottolovethisweather.

Looking forward to tomorrow's sunshine (without writing off today )

Edited November 17, 2012 by Steve C

[Eskimo]

One of these days where I wish I went back to bed.

[Snow Queen one]

Now it is my turn to moan I have held off for quite a while but it is so yuck out there today dull and boring 13 deg which is too mild for this time of year and to top it all off it looks lke it could rain but sometimes you can see the sun is still there above the cloud. I can't wait for this weather to go away even wind and rain would be better than this dross.

Anyway off to walk the dog wish me luck lol

[Floatylight]

Turned dark again after it started to brighten just a bit.

It feels like 4pm?

oh maybe coz its just started to rain as i am typing this.

Do i venture out tonight to watch colchester turn its christmas 'light' on?????

Always such a dismal effort by the council here.

have a good day all,despite the grey x

[gottolovethisweather]

Suffice to say, it's not as bright as it once was, a bit like me really.

[Eskimo]

Turned dark again after it started to brighten just a bit.

It feels like 4pm?

oh maybe coz its just started to rain as i am typing this.

Do i venture out tonight to watch colchester turn its christmas 'light' on?????

Always such a dismal effort by the council here.

have a good day all,despite the grey x

Go watch the lights, you will regret it if you don't Any celebs turning them on?

[dubmuffin]

this fax is for 1800 hours saturday

the weather front is just touching the south east corner

think it will start to dry out by then

dubmuffin assuming these are right it should be dry from around 5 pm

sunday 00 chart looks the same as saturday 1800

chilly and mainly dry except the very very far south east

Thanks John, looks like we could be very lucky again! It's dry here at the moment so good setting up weather, and dry tomorrow for the clean up too

Then I can start looking on here for the cold spell updates instead.

[Eskimo]

The Depress...I mean The Express has stuck its neck out with a story about this winter being the coldest in 100 years.

In other news, Santa has made an official statement that he may have to move his base in Lapland to Gravesend, Kent due to rising raw material costs and snow-melt.