South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 12th 2012>

[Snowangel-MK]

I don't know which four blokes they might be, but I'll let the other chaps indulge. I'll stay in the nice and warm.

yep...me too

I'm just sooooo relieved it's not going to snow in MK this side of midnight and therefore I've not got to carry out my forfeit....

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

High of 8.5c today, no sunshine at all

[Coast]

I'm just sooooo relieved it's not going to snow in MK this side of midnight and therefore I've not got to carry out my forfeit....

Cheeky!

[gottolovethisweather]

12°C and milky sunshine with a slight haze in the distance. Got some of the usual odd stares on the M25, with the roof down in mid-November, but what choice do I have - I just love that sun!!!!

Only maxed out at 8.3c in Newbury and besides, if I did what you did, I'd probably catch pneumonia. Were there any other folk with their tops down Coast?

[gottolovethisweather]

Cheeky!

Yes nicely so.

Edited November 15, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

if I did what you did, I'd probably catch pneumonia. Were there any other folk with their tops down Coast?

No, obviously not as hardy as us Eastbourne types!!!!! :lol:

[Steve C]

Back home now. Foggy here now, but not dense.

[Keraunic]

Back home now. Foggy here now, but not dense.

There's only one thing that's dense round here....me. Burnt nippers lunch, couldn't put the push chair up and fell headlong over the Slobrador. *sigh*

But it is foggy here now. I'd better not go out again or Lord knows what'll happen. :o

[john pike]

im back

27th onwards starting to look good

(if you like cold that is)

be back later to do a fax update

[Methuselah]

Patchy fog floating about around here, too...

[Guest archiesmummy]

im back

27th onwards starting to look good

(if you like cold that is)

be back later to do a fax update

I knew today was going to be a good day

[Mark Neal.]

Fog has returned here after a fairly decent afternoon again. Temp now 6c.

[Methuselah]

Fog has returned!

[Summer of 76]

Same here although I have both white and yellow fog as the lamp post outside has a yellow bulb and the one further up the road has been changes to a white one. Fun this winter lamp post watching when the fist flakes of snow arrive.

[dubmuffin]

All I can add to John's excellent appraisal are these:

So heavier the further South you go in our region?

Thanks Coast, looks like the fireworks are going to be late this year, hope the new neighbours are understanding. I'll be on tenterhooks waiting for the next fax output

[Jasmine]

im back

27th onwards starting to look good

(if you like cold that is)

be back later to do a fax update

You made my day Bless you

[john pike]

fax update

friday morning looks dry and cloudy

highs around 11 degrees

however it looks like rain some heavy

will reach south east by mid afternoon

saturday night

wet and some persistant heavy rain

not cold around 8 degrees

saturday

at midday heavy rain across the very far south east

with a breaking front headed towards the south east

still feel this should clear up early evening around 5ish

temperatures still around 11-12 degrees feeling cold in the rain

saturday night

although dry and very light winds

could be a cold night 3-4degrees

note the 528 dam line over the middle of the uk

sunday

sunday looks dry and could feel quite pleasant

high pressure over the south east

13-14 degrees possible

will update monday and tuesday when it comes out

sorry had to do some smileys

[Sprites]

Im hoping for a repeat of last sunday, mist and frost early on, then lots of sunshine, good weather for photography.

[dubmuffin]

fax update

saturday

at midday heavy rain across the very far south east

with a breaking front headed towards the south east

still feel this should clear up early evening around 5ish

temperatures still around 11-12 degrees feeling cold in the rain

saturday night

although dry and very light winds

could be a cold night 3-4degrees

note the 528 dam line over the middle of the uk

sorry had to do some smileys

Hi John,

Thanks for the optimistic update, I feel a few smileys coming on myself

Cold I can cope with - bring on the pyrotechnics...

[Snowangel-MK]

It's very smiley in here tonight

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

hi all flick on the charts from 96-120

spot the high pressure to our north east pushing westward

this is what we want to see build

note the lows to our west get pushed either south or 1 even

gets pushed back away from us

this shows blocking to our east is getting stronger

now getting the cold here will take a little time however the

longer this takes the colder europe will be

another smiley

some really good 12z charts today

will post the ensembles for the 18z just after 12

[gottolovethisweather]

Just to add further comment to JPs wonderful summary, I just want to link to Robbie Garrett's post from the model output discussion. Yes, as ever, there are conflicting views in there but my view, as to where we stand for the final third of November, hasn't changed over the last few days. Please pay attention to the trend he has picked on, it's this that is noteworthy, not the specifics. Having said that, I do believe he has misjudged the timing of the first cold blast, but as ever time will tell, clearly an unfolding pattern to watch.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2404872

Here's a post from myself from the snow and ice thread, hinting at similar prospects longer-term.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2399845

Let's not forget this was the same day the BBC with MetO guidance, had issued their late November prediction. It must be said that particular situation does look like coming off, in one form or the other.

FI in my opinion is now out to approximately 20th November, judging by the 12z ensembles. It is at precisely this timeframe, that we should see the first signs of the stagnating trough heading into Iberia or a somewhere nearby and consequently a building high slowly migrating northwards over the UK. I say look North or Northeast for the first cold blasts.

Edited November 16, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

hi got to love this weather

sums up pretty well what i am thinking as well

not sure if you have spotted this but the fax charts

show a possiblilty of some cold zonal weather mid next week

the 528 dam line coming in from the west could wrap up with

one of the lows in the atlantic and sneak up on us (especially if they head south of us)

not calling snow etc but interesting to watch

[gottolovethisweather]

http://www.meteociel...arte=2000&ech=0

hi all flick on the charts from 96-120

spot the high pressure to our north east pushing westward

this is what we want to see build

note the lows to our west get pushed either south or 1 even

gets pushed back away from us

this shows blocking to our east is getting stronger

John, also keep an eye on developments regarding the surface lows/troughs way out over the Eastern USA on the t+120 you posted. It is these, to which I am referring in my previous post. I think that when looking at the Fax Charts, you can clearly see how complicated it becomes in the t+96 to t+120 timeframe. Nevertheless, the upper atmosphere is loaded, as indicated by repeated runs of continent-shifting split vortices on the H500 charts. As to where they want to go for winter is still up for debate but we can only hope, the cold gets a damn sight closer than last year.

[john pike]

John, also keep an eye on developments regarding the surface lows/troughs way out over the Eastern USA on the t+120 you posted. It is these, to which I am referring in my previous post. I think that when looking at the Fax Charts, you can clearly see how complicated it becomes in the t+96 to t+120 timeframe. Nevertheless, the upper atmosphere is loaded, as indicated by repeated runs of continent-shifting split vortices on the H500 charts. As to where they want to go for winter is still up for debate but we can only hope, the cold gets a damn sight closer than last year.

Hi gtltw

gotcha on the low over easten usa

could get some interesting fax charts within the next 2-3 days

also note the high pressure building in the atlantic.

that would aid the cause as well

sorry had to do a cold one (sort of smiley)

Edited November 15, 2012 by john pike