South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 12th 2012>

[Ben_Cambs]

Good evening, here's another model summary based primarly on tonight's output!

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=1

In the very short term, we have the risk of some rather dense fog forming through tonight and maybe not clearing in some areas until around lunchtime tomorrow.

UKMO T+72: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm721.gif

Thursday and Friday will be dry and mainly cloudy, with maximum temperatures around 8-10C and not much below at night. As we enter the weekend, there will be a change in the pattern, with LP mainly centred near Iceland set to control our weather. Saturday will begin dry however a band of rain, sometimes heavy will cross the region during Saturday afternoon – ushering in cooler Polar Maritime air. It will turn increasingly windy; temperatures could reach 12-13C though will be lower once the rain arrives. Saturday night will be cold, with temperatures possibly falling to freezing in rural areas. Sunday will begin dry and sunny though another area of rain will set in during the afternoon. Temperatures will be on the cool side, maxing out at 7-8C. However, the rain will re-introduce milder Tropical maritime air.

GFS T+120: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

UKMO T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

ECM T+120: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

By Monday, mild SW’erly winds are covering the region. More pulses of rain are likely to arrive into the region on Monday, so at this stage Sunday evening into Monday could be notably wet and is certainly one to keep an eye on. However, it will be mild for the time of year, with temperatures maxing out at 11-13C and with cloud cover, Monday night may be very mild for the time of year. (This chart not to be taken too seriously at this range):

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn13217.png

The wet theme continues into Tuesday with more prolonged rain possible. Again, it will be mild with temperatures maxing around 11-13C.

GFS T+168: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1681.png

ECM T+168: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1681.png

There is a stronger possibility for a couple of useful drier days around mid-week according to the models after the wet days beforehand and the winds may turn a little lighter. Both models have a deep low in the mid-Atlantic with the centre closer to the UK on the GFS. This may provide more unsettled weather further out. Temperatures will still remain mild for the time of year, though night-time minima will be much closer to the average.

ECM 0z ens T+240 : http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

Milder SW’erly winds are more likely at Day 10, with mainly changeable weather.

GFS 12z ens for Hertfordshire: http://cdn.nwstatic....rtfordshire.png

Support for milder conditions after a cool weekend, though cooling a little towards the end. PPN spikes for Hertfordshire (12z) show that a wet start to next week, if not for the first half is likely to be wet and unsettled:

http://cdn.nwstatic....rtfordshire.png

More’ interesting’ weather to come from the weekend onwards if tonight’s models verify!

By the way, we certainly have some excellent photographers on this thread!

Edited November 14, 2012 by Ben_Cambs

[Ben_Cambs]

Very foggy here already this evening. Could be tricky on the roads in the morning.

[Methuselah]

Aye, fog's come-down here now, too...

[Mark Neal.]

Ah MKSA, Brill is a few miles from me. You get lovely views from up there!

Clear skies here. No sign of fog yet.

[dubmuffin]

OK, can anyone help me out here? I'm having a bonfire and fireworks party on Saturday night, the met office have 6 hours of heavy rain starting at 6pm and ending at midnight, the Netweather forecast has the rain starting at 3am on Saturday and ending at 12pm. Can anyone put me out of ny misery and tell me that Netweather have got it right?

[Nick F]

Absolutely stunning weather today for November, had a very nice walk along the English Channel coast, though the sun is so low now - it was difficult to see out to sea!

[Guest archiesmummy]

Ok, am I a miserable so and so for not liking this mild weather? Seriously yeah was lovely seeing the sun but too warm to wear a coat today? In November? No thanks! Sun yes, frost yes, a wind I have to snuggle up against, yes but double figures, no thanks!

I hope the cold is going to put in an appearance soon!

[lottiekent]

Not just you Archiesmummy! I am not keen either..it should be cold!!

[john pike]

OK, can anyone help me out here? I'm having a bonfire and fireworks party on Saturday night, the met office have 6 hours of heavy rain starting at 6pm and ending at midnight, the Netweather forecast has the rain starting at 3am on Saturday and ending at 12pm. Can anyone put me out of ny misery and tell me that Netweather have got it right?

Hi dubmuffinI will give you a fax update laterAnd do a proper one tomorrow night

[john pike]

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

I will do a proper update tomorrow night. If I was saying saturday I would say rain from about 1pm to around 6pm

Be easier to do a more detailed one tomorrow

[Mark Neal.]

Fog started to form here. Not too dense yet though.

[john pike]

High pressure to our north east north west and east

The low that is causing the problems with the charts starts to head north

Also note another low pressure has been picked up which could be a problem that will need watching

Until this has been resolved any forecasts past monday have to be classed as fi

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Interesting aberdeen ensembles tonight

Says it all really

[Snowangel-MK]

It is foggy....stay safe peeps !!

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

London ensembles hahaha

[pottyprof]

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

London ensembles hahaha

A bit of uncertainty then?

[john pike]

Hi pottyprof

I reckon the pub run is quite apt tonight :-)

[Great Plum]

Morning all... Off to be a poll clerk... Deep joy!

[chilly milly]

Morning all. It is an exciting day today. My other half has a job interview. It is foggy. But most exciting of all. John P gets his internet today. Yippee!!

Tis foggy here today and it's a nice cool 5.4c, which is much better than the double figures yesterday morning.

Have a good day everyone.

[Pixel]

Good morning - was just about to turn the fog lights off from last year and looked outside

but a mouthwatering sight for the end of the month on the PC > scroll through these:

http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=1

yes yes it's FI (fantacy Island) but there's something exciting about the way these have chopped and changed these last few weeks. All good fun. Just want it to show up on the previous page before T144 etc..

pick of the crop:

edit.. gotta laugh when compared to the latest one out this morning for around the same time!

always an optimist (-:

Edited November 15, 2012 by Pixel Precipitation

[Coast]

Hello you mob!

Clear but overcast on the coast, a little fog in land. Off to North Surrey in an hour or so, how are things up along the M25/A3 regarding fog?

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

Very foggy here, do take care

If your out and about on the roads early this morning put your fog lamps on !!

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. It was a bit misty here earlier and damp and cold. It's lifting now though.

Take care everyone and have a good day.

[Coast]

Very foggy here

Who said that?

[Dexter29]

Morning guys,

Fog is the word here this morning. Very grim, at least it's not raining, would prefer any kind of weather other than rain especially from someone who works outside.

Would love a repeat of yesterday later today but I'm not sure about that.

Mod thread - still no clue as to whether we can expect a cold end to the month.. We are now being told to look towards December, guessed that was going to happen.

Edited November 15, 2012 by Dexter29

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Low of 2.5c overnight, dull this morning but not really foggy.