Model Output Discussion 18/11/2012 12Z onwards

[cooling climate]

Also fairly sizeable Asian Mountain Torque now showing its hand - might be worth keeping an eye on stratosphere within the next 10-12 days.

Do you not mean American mountain torque

Hope you and Steve etc are on the money as we go into December

and if you are (American torque is a big positive)then I would

expect to see warming in the low to mid stratosphere at 65-90n

over the coming days.

Although it is still yet to verify I am quite happy with my

forcast from 6-7 days ago that latter part of November will

see colder, drier and frostier conditions with high pressure

to the north, northeast or east of UK at about the 60 to 65n

latitude.

[weather_it_will]

Look East!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18z is so much better shorter term......................Steve, you can't be that cryptic.....explain please re the jet profile as it is subtle

BFTP

Edited November 19, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Met4Cast]

Just to show how huge the differences can be in the lower resolution part of the run

12z

18z

[AWD]

Look East!

Regardless of the 18z evolution, look north, not east at first!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Look East!

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-288.png?18

East fro what?

BFTP

Edited November 19, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[swilliam]

Would be some interesting weather for Canada if something like this happened

[SnowObsessor90]

As far as the GFS FI I hope it's just gone of on and not caught to a new trend.....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As far as the GFS FI I hope it's just gone of on and not caught to a new trend.....

Maybe GFS other runs have been off on one? GP mentions something re that type of thing happening, maybe its what will happen or not. Not to worry...its all FI and worth monitoring....s for me........I have thought this Dec has been as hard to call as any (if not moreso) over last 5 yrs or so of trying....

BFTP

Edited November 19, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Geordiesnow]

Just to show how huge the differences can be in the lower resolution part of the run

12z

18z

And that applies to any time of year in all honesty, its a very long range and with so much going on before hand, then one change changes the whole pattern completely hence why long range forecasting to detail will never occur I don't think.

The 18Z does keep a better blocking theme mind if albeit without delivering the goods but at least the models are in better agreement than perhaps previously and its a little bit closer to the reliable timeframe.

The potential for more flooding to occur is quite high though if indeed we do get an Atlantic ridge to the West and a high pressure block to the East with the low pressure in the middle stalling for a while as per the GFS run. One perhaps to keep an eye on in future runs for sure.

[Snowy Easterlies]

not to be on the pub run tonight, FI is a borefest with the high just sitting over us, but as its FI im not gonna worry just yet

[bobbydog]

whats going on here then?.....

[chionomaniac]

not to be on the pub run tonight, FI is a borefest with the high just sitting over us, but as its FI im not gonna worry just yet

I look at this totally differently. The hosepipe is fetched from the garage, plugged in, tap switched on with water coming out. It just needs a little fine tuning to water my garden, not the neighbours- that's all!!!

[Nick F]

For sure a more blocked/amplified pattern is now creeping into the outer reaches of the reliable period, but as Nick S has pointed out, the flow over the UK around the developing blocks has yet to be decided. Which will have a big impact to how cold it will get for us, Wouldn't like to pin my hopes on an easterly delivering deep cold just yet ...

Edited November 19, 2012 by Nick F

[Robbie Garrett]

Would love to see those purple's over the UK... hate to think this place would go into meltdown.

[Duane S.]

As far as the GFS FI I hope it's just gone of on and not caught to a new trend.....

Put together every GFS run's +384s chronologicaly from the past 5 years, I guarantee no trend will show. GFS low res beyond 10 days is just a bit of fun.

[chionomaniac]

whats going on here then?.....

It looks like a later version of this:

A split followed by a displacement with corresponding warming - getting near a CW, I would imagine.

[EML Network]

Well the way I see the past days runs, is that once again were chasing FI to tap into the really cold air masses.

At 240 synopticly the SE in particular has the jackpot, more often than not that type of set up would deliver a good dumping of snow right at the end of November , but we have no cold air to tap into... might deliver some winteryness over the hill tops at best IMO.

GFS and ECM singing from the same song sheet at +240 tonight, beyond that is anyone's guess.

So to sum up, a colder spell of weather does look to be on the cards from the last 3-4 days of November onwards, but it's unlikely this bite at the cherry will deliver any decent snowfalls , so were then looking at how it evolves from there and hoping that we get lucky, orientation and placement of the High over Iceland suddenly becomes something to watch....roll two dice and see if we get lucky.

Edited November 19, 2012 by EML Network

[Dampdorset82]

It looks like a later version of this:

A split followed by a displacement with corresponding warming - getting near a CW, I would imagine.

Whats a CW? thanks

[TEITS]

Nothing has changed for me since my post last night. The cooler E,ly looks very likely but I still don't see this bringing anything wintry. If we are to see a cold, wintry spell develop then we ideally need to see blocking develop to our NW to allow a surge of cold air to move S along the right hand flank of the HP.

So whilst the cool E,ly looks likely, I still think we are some way away from a cold, wintry spell developing and this potential remains well into F.I. I still have concerns about HP being centred just to the N of Scotland rather than ideally being centred over Greenland.

Hope over the next few days im proved wrong.

Edited November 19, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[liam300]

Unrealistic ?

[bobbydog]

It looks like a later version of this:

A split followed by a displacement with corresponding warming - getting near a CW, I would imagine.

thats what i was wondering. so even if the FI charts don't look impressive, if by the slim chance they were to verify, the strat could have a surprise up its sleeve, - wasn't 62/63 a CW event?....

CW- canadian warming (for dampdorset)

Edited November 19, 2012 by bobbydog

[liam300]

whats going on here then?.....

Thats called a new ice age.

[chionomaniac]

Whats a CW? thanks

Sorry, it is a Canadian Warming - often seen high up in the stratosphere in autumn.

[Duane S.]

Whats a CW? thanks

Canadian Warming. Split coming from wave 2, displacement from wave 1 I presume.