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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 19th 2012>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

post-5986-0-85520500-1353753814_thumb.gi

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 24 Nov 2012 06:00 to Sun 25 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Fri 23 Nov 2012 22:52

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

We will watch the area between the occlusion and the backside of the cold front/or triple point for enhanced DMC chances, which would mix severe wind gusts down to the surface.

www.estofex.org

I imagine this is precisely when the MetO think the strongest gusts will arrive. The timing of which will be crucial as to how we, as weather observers, will subsequently view the event. I believe the suspected triple point is a similar feature to that which passed over us the other day and at the time, it did somewhat catch them (UKMO) and us off guard. excl.png

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Top of Bluebell Hill, and other places like that, I think, may well top the normal sea-level equivalent mean temps forecast. I'm not even sure that these speeds factor in convective gusts,

post-5986-0-68141500-1353761935_thumb.pn

So, here, we are talking of a risk of 60kt convective gusts (which don't require pressure lapse rates) which is 69mph! I am currently forecast with gusts to 54mph. I think it will easily top that once we get there.

Agree my location is forecast 54mph but I think 60mph could materialize during it's peak! Let's not forget that predicted wind speeds are often exceeded, for example the highest winds forecast for Thursday where also 70mph and somewhere in Wales got 86mph.
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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Yeah, but Heart have started playing Xmas tunes in November sad.png

I know! I refuse to hear any until December so I am forever turning over.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Agree my location is forecast 54mph but I think 60mph could materialize during it's peak! Let's not forget that predicted wind speeds are often exceeded, for example the highest winds forecast for Thursday where also 70mph and somewhere in Wales got 86mph.

Yes, I think that's because gusts are calculated (if I recall correctly) from a regression of previous values in similar circumstances (perhaps from isobar distance?). So, essentially, the gusts are the average of what happened last time; given an average, some will see higher gusts, some lower gusts, and it's really a ballpark figure.

There are other ways of forecasting potential gusts using roughness length, for instance, here

Edited by Boar Wrinklestorm
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

I think its moving through rather more quickly than anticipated too.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

It sure does show a nicely defined back edge to it.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

I imagine this is precisely when the MetO think the strongest gusts will arrive. The timing of which will be crucial as to how we, as weather observers, will subsequently view the event. I believe the suspected triple point is a similar feature to that which passed over us the other day and at the time, it did somewhat catch them (UKMO) and us off guard. excl.png

Yes, and I think that the triple point, if it occurs, could be quite damaging.

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suffolkboy_ Aficionado

suffolkboy_

Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
Posted

Agree my location is forecast 54mph but I think 60mph could materialize during it's peak! Let's not forget that predicted wind speeds are often exceeded, for example the highest winds forecast for Thursday where also 70mph and somewhere in Wales got 86mph.

Capel Curig recorded the 86mph gust, which is at high elevation (the weather station is actually about 2 miles from Capel Curig itself towards Snowden). As far as populated areas go 70 mph wasn't far off the mark.

It seems a long time since we last had a proper storm in the South East/East Anglia. Mosts storms have lost their puff by the time they have crossed the west of England. A storm tracking from the Bay of Biscay usually provides our best hope of strong winds. I feel an all nighter coming on! Otherwise I WILL sleep though it......I could sleep through a nuclear war.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

I think its moving through rather more quickly than anticipated too.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

It sure does show a nicely defined back edge to it.

The "eye" is just starting to form on the final image,

post-5986-0-86603100-1353763157_thumb.pn

Will certainly be looking out for a hook, tonight. Although it must be said there's no suggestion that such a thing might occur.

Capel Curig recorded the 86mph gust, which is at high elevation (the weather station is actually about 2 miles from Capel Curig itself towards Snowden). As far as populated areas go 70 mph wasn't far off the mark.

It seems a long time since we last had a proper storm in the South East/East Anglia. Mosts storms have lost their puff by the time they have crossed the west of England. A storm tracking from the Bay of Biscay usually provides our best hope of strong winds. I feel an all nighter coming on! Otherwise I WILL sleep though it......I could sleep through a nuclear war.

Not forgetting this one forms as it crosses us (ie the pressure is still dropping)

Edited by Boar Wrinklestorm
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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Capel Curig recorded the 86mph gust, which is at high elevation (the weather station is actually about 2 miles from Capel Curig itself towards Snowden). As far as populated areas go 70 mph wasn't far off the mark.

It seems a long time since we last had a proper storm in the South East/East Anglia. Mosts storms have lost their puff by the time they have crossed the west of England. A storm tracking from the Bay of Biscay usually provides our best hope of strong winds. I feel an all nighter coming on! Otherwise I WILL sleep though it......I could sleep through a nuclear war.

Lol me too probably, although I did wake up in the October 2000 storm when we had winds around 80-90mph. I think as far as tonight goes 45-55mph seems likely to be the scenario inland with 60-70mph on coasts perhaps a little higher as the back edge moves through, it'll probably be a very brief spell of the really squally winds though perhaps only lasting a couple of hours max!
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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

It's raining in Ippy but very calm. Back to Norwich later so I don't expect I'll be seeing much wild weather. :(

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Winds are due to start gusting around 6pm onwards here when they'll start touching 25 perhaps 30mph there's already a steady breeze developing approx 14mph by my guess and steady rain becomming gradually heavier!

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Good old Heart........... the Daily Express of the radio world rolleyes.gif

LOL :-) I know exactly what you mean about The Daily Express, the biggest scare mongerers of the lot. If you where to believe them then we are going to get 100mph+ hmmmm but hey as long as it sells papers that's all that matters to them! This isn't Florida blum.gif
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

LOL :-) I know exactly what you mean about The Daily Express, the biggest scare mongerers of the lot. If you where to believe them then we are going to get 100mph+ hmmmm but hey as long as it sells papers that's all that matters to them! This isn't Florida blum.gif

Spot on, here. Gusts exceeding 100mph!

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

The breeze is already picking up, quite worrying considering it's not due to peak until the early hours of the morning. Already gusting to over 20mph I'd say sorry.gif

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Spot on, here. Gusts exceeding 100mph!

They do make me laugh, they probably make up their so-called forecasters who are supposed to have quoted this I bet they don't even excist. I'd luv to investigate them over this and sue the laminate floors! What they write is just out of order in my opinion, they could be responcible for widespread hysteria.

LOL it just said laminate floors, I leave you guys to guess what I actually put!

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

I think its moving through rather more quickly than anticipated too.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

It sure does show a nicely defined back edge to it.

Yes, the northern extent of the rain is slightly further north than 06z GFS predicts.

Heaviest rain looks like ending up across the southwestern England and Wales, where it really is least needed!

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Dexter29 Newbie

Dexter29

Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex
Posted

Yes I have just watched the latest BBC news24 forecast and Chris Fawkes has wind gusts at 60mph on the coast and 50mph inland at 03:00 tomorrow morning. A downgrade from the mornings forecast it would seem.

Also they don't seem too concerned about the wind, he said :

"maybe localised travel disruption and enough to bring down some tree branches maybe uproot weakened trees" hardly widespread disruption!

Main concern is the poor folk in SW England and Wales 30-50mm of rain potentially once the system passes through

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knightrider Enthusiast

knightrider

Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Posted

Yes I have just watched the latest BBC news24 forecast and Chris Fawkes has wind gusts at 60mph on the coast and 50mph inland at 03:00 tomorrow morning. A downgrade from the mornings forecast it would seem.

Also they don't seem too concerned about the wind, he said :

"maybe localised travel disruption and enough to bring down some tree branches maybe uproot weakened trees" hardly widespread disruption!

Main concern is the poor folk in SW England and Wales 30-50mm of rain potentially once the system passes through

Hmmm they say that whilst holding the breath I imagine, here's hoping they havn't over looked the potential of the wind tonight to save them from having lots of egg on their faces tomorrow morning!

holding *their* breath

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Dexter29 Newbie

Dexter29

Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex
Posted

Hmmm they say that whilst holding the breath I imagine, here's hoping they havn't over looked the potential of the wind tonight to save them from having lots of egg on their faces tomorrow morning!

holding *their* breath

Maybe if there wasn't so much rain to contend with in the SW then maybe the BBC would make more of an issue of the winds forecast for later.

Either that or there has been just a tad of over-hype floating about!!

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Dexter29 Newbie

Dexter29

Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex
Posted

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

good satellite

i am glad i am not a paid forecaster predicting tonight

its ok for us to get it wrong

Looks good on that satellite.

Really hope we get some really strong gusts tonight. Love the sound of the wind howling when laying in bed.

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