South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 19th 2012>

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Deffo going to be one of the windiest nights I have ever experienced..

I am going for the lowest point to be 988 when it leaves the east coast ..

Edited November 24, 2012 by Surrey

[bobbydog]

anyone fancy a stroll down brighton pier at 3am?

[knightrider]

anyone fancy a stroll down brighton pier at 3am?

It would certainly put the colour in your cheeks wouldn't it? lol

Rain getting heavier here now and breeze picking up abit.

[bobbydog]

It would certainly put the colour in your cheeks wouldn't it? lol

hmm. brown i should imagine!!

[knightrider]

hmm. brown i should imagine!!

LMAO

[VillagePlank]

Deffo going to be one of the windiest nights I have ever experienced..

I am going for the lowest point to be 988 when it leaves the east coast ..

Certainly the potential for lower than that,

[knightrider]

BBC midday forecast has just downgraded the winds from 70mph down to 60mph for coasts and 60 down to 50 for inland, every other forecasting source increasing their gust predictions, another example of the Beeb down playing an approaching storm to prevent panick?..

[VillagePlank]

BBC midday forecast has just downgraded the winds from 70mph down to 60mph for coasts and 60 down to 50 for inland, every other forecasting source increasing their gust predictions, another example of the Beeb down playing an approaching storm to prevent panick?..

More likely the track of storm has changed slightly.

[knightrider]

Well brighton beach is now predicting 75mph not 80mph, I do hope this isn't going to fizzle out into a very damp squib!

[jamesbhx]

The shipping forecast for "Thames, Dover and Wight" later is giving "Southeast 5 or 6, veering southwest 7 to severe gale 9, occasionally storm 10 later." This would be in line with the beaufort scale 55-63mph for storm 10.

[Jason T]

More likely the track of storm has changed slightly.

http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/latest.htm

Edited November 24, 2012 by Jason T

[VillagePlank]

The shipping forecast for "Thames, Dover and Wight" later is giving "Southeast 5 or 6, veering southwest 7 to severe gale 9, occasionally storm 10 later." This would be in line with the beaufort scale 55-63mph for storm 10.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~All

[anything-but]

Kent looks like getting a battering,

I am NOT looking forward to going into work on the bike at 7:30am tomorrow morning....or will it have eased a bit by then?

[VillagePlank]

I am NOT looking forward to going into work on the bike at 7:30am tomorrow morning....or will it have eased a bit by then?

Main risk subsides by 6am; but you should still expect gusts in excess of 45mph, even by 9am

[knightrider]

The shipping forecast for "Thames, Dover and Wight" later is giving "Southeast 5 or 6, veering southwest 7 to severe gale 9, occasionally storm 10 later." This would be in line with the beaufort scale 55-63mph for storm 10.

Yes but wasn't the Beaufort Scale based on averages in gusts? I think that means 55-63mph regularly but occasionally more, I wouldn't start using the term storm-force until the winds where exceeding 70mph.

Rain getting abit heavier here now, steady breeze increase too!

[VillagePlank]

Yes but wasn't the Beaufort Scale based on averages in gusts? I think that means 55-63mph regularly but occasionally more, I wouldn't start using the term storm-force until the winds where exceeding 70mph.

Rain getting abit heavier here now, steady breeze increase too!

You can classify Beaufort scale numbers where the mean speed of the wind is in that category, or, that frequent gusts of speeds in that category are expected. "Storm" force is 55-63mph; at 70mph you are talking violent storm (which is currently forecast for Brighton, and a few other places along the south coast) Greater than 74pmh indicates hurricane force winds,

Unfortunately, we don't know the frequency of the gusts. it could happen once, or every ten minutes for all we can tell.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[jamesbhx]

Yes, its mean wind speed as far as I'm aware. The definition of a gust, certainly in terms of aviation is 10kts (11.5mph) above the mean so if storm force 10 is anything to go by then I'd expect any mean wind speeds to be in the 55-63mph area with gusts from 66-74mph. This is still broadly in line with that the various models and agencies are saying.

I certainly wouldnt rule out the odd exposed place on higher ground to get a sniff of 80mph. I'm thinking the eastern side of the south downs really.

Edit: As Boar says above.

Edited November 24, 2012 by jamesbhx

[Jason T]

updated fax charts for tuesday and wednesday

tuesday

showers some heavy throughout the day

COLD north easterly wind but not bitter yet and not a long cold drag

8 degrees but will feel cold

some showers in the very far south east

now a COLD north easterly wind which will be quite strong

we have 528 dam air on its way down from the north

also we have a trough to our north east

could we see some wintry showers later in the day

more closer to the time

fergieweather UKMO go for cold & blocked into at least 10-15d based on MOGREPS-15 & EC Monthly. They say the 'wobbles' typical in this scenario 18 minutes ago ·

Good news JP.

[Canalboy]

Flood meadows here are allready deep in water,

this low pressure system is about as welcome as Rafa Benitez at Chelsea.

Yup, both originated near the Bay of Biscay, and both are likely to have short lived stays.in the South East before moving Eastwards

[Dexter29]

BBC midday forecast has just downgraded the winds from 70mph down to 60mph for coasts and 60 down to 50 for inland, every other forecasting source increasing their gust predictions, another example of the Beeb down playing an approaching storm to prevent panick?..

The Beeb would not do that to prevent panick.

More than likely the storm system isn't a strong as first thought or its changed track slightly.

I always knew we probably wouldn't achieve over 60mph gusts here anyway.

Maybe a little over-hype has been going on past few days. Who knows!!!

[80sWeather]

I am NOT looking forward to going into work on the bike at 7:30am tomorrow morning....or will it have eased a bit by then?

If the wind is behind you then it will be a fast one!

[gottolovethisweather]

The shipping forecast for "Thames, Dover and Wight" later is giving "Southeast 5 or 6, veering southwest 7 to severe gale 9, occasionally storm 10 later." This would be in line with the beaufort scale 55-63mph for storm 10.

Must be said, at this stage, that implies a typical blowy depression, the likes of which comes around each season.

I'm not getting caught up in the hype just yet BUT I will be watching things develop.

It will obviously be a non-wind event for my area but I expect the top gusts to be along some stretches of the East coast as the depression moves off into the North Sea.

Rainfall currently 3.0mm and much more to come.

Edited November 24, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[VillagePlank]

Yes, its mean wind speed as far as I'm aware. The definition of a gust, certainly in terms of aviation is 10kts (11.5mph) above the mean so if storm force 10 is anything to go by then I'd expect any mean wind speeds to be in the 55-63mph area with gusts from 66-74mph. This is still broadly in line with that the various models and agencies are saying.

I certainly wouldnt rule out the odd exposed place on higher ground to get a sniff of 80mph. I'm thinking the eastern side of the south downs really.

Edit: As Boar says above.

Top of Bluebell Hill, and other places like that, I think, may well top the normal sea-level equivalent mean temps forecast. I'm not even sure that these speeds factor in convective gusts,

So, here, we are talking of a risk of 60kt convective gusts (which don't require pressure lapse rates) which is 69mph! I am currently forecast with gusts to 54mph. I think it will easily top that once we get there.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Lauren]

Heart radio forecast just said 75mph gusts and 3 inches of rain. Hmmmmm

[VillagePlank]

Heart radio forecast just said 75mph gusts and 3 inches of rain. Hmmmmm

Yeah, but Heart have started playing Xmas tunes in November