South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 19th 2012>

[Mrsf16]

Sorry to go slighty off topic peeps but can i ask and particularly to mrsf16

relatives over your way say the red cross is going door to door handing out emergency blankets for severe weather, have you seen this?

Not that I am aware of, the certainly haven't been here. Perhaps they might to some of the sheltered housing schemes but I know nothing of it.

[john pike]

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

there you can see the activity to our south east

[john pike]

12z ensembles starting to agree on a much colder spell from 27th onwards

gfs main run (thick green line) loses the plot from the 5th onwards

[Snowangel-MK]

Evening all,

I hope everyone has enjoyed the first half of their weekend as much as I have mine, the rain and even more so the laying water in the fields may have scuppered the plans of a longer walk than was had but the day couldn't have been nicer

Certainly a night to stay in and keep warm by the fire now

[john pike]

ecm at 144 goes very close to ukmo

cold

[Ice Day]

ecm at 144 goes very close to ukmo

cold

168 should be very nice!?

[JennyJane1]

Not that I am aware of, the certainly haven't been here. Perhaps they might to some of the sheltered housing schemes but I know nothing of it.

ok thanks,not to sheltered housing, just normal houses.Never heard of them doing that before.

[Ice Day]

Flippin 'eck! If this comes off next Sunday will be very cold and maybe snowy!?

Edited November 24, 2012 by Ice Day

[snowblues]

Well going by the ukmo and ecm very wintry outlook,countryfile should be interesting,unless they go for there usual saying...Theres some uncertainty about this at the moment.

[Methuselah]

Still lashing it down, in this wee part of the world...

[shotski]

Another poor run from the ECM, ONLY -8 uppers reaching the southcoast by the 2nd and maybe widespread snowfall by the 3rd

I hope we get some upgrades soon or I'm writing this winter off.

[Floatylight]

V funny shots.on mobile waiting for concert to start .reading mod thread sad or wat?colchester is having to cope with a major water pipe bursting in town centre.15h homes evacuated this morning.The road is a nightmare now cones and diggers etc.just what you need run up to xmas.be back later about 10 might pop in chat x

[shotski]

V funny shots.on mobile waiting for concert to start .reading mod thread sad or wat?colchester is having to cope with a major water pipe bursting in town centre.15h homes evacuated this morning.The road is a nightmare now cones and diggers etc.just what you need run up to xmas.be back later about 10 might pop in chat x

Yeh that is a bit sad floaty Have a good one

[snowblues]

Another poor run from the ECM, ONLY -8 uppers reaching the southcoast by the 2nd and maybe widespread snowfall by the 3rd

I hope we get some upgrades soon or I'm writing this winter off.

What horrendous charts, maybe next year Edited November 24, 2012 by snowblues

[Dexter29]

Just back home from shopping, very surprised: it's stopped raining here and there isn't much wind to speak of...

Just looked at the radar, poor SW England they are getting an absolute soaking

[suffolkboy_]

Just back home from shopping, very surprised: it's stopped raining here and there isn't much wind to speak of...

Just looked at the radar, poor SW England they are getting an absolute soaking

Wind won't be a factor until the center of the low begins to pass.....expect the winds to really wind up around 3am onwards.

[Marie]

Very calm here ,rained for most of the day but no wind .Lets see what over night brings .

[Ben_Cambs]

4.5mm has fallen so far since around midday. Rain has picked up a little in the past few minutes. Here's a model summary based mainly on tonight's output:

Turning very windy during the night as the low passes through:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121124/12/18/ukwind.png

Some very strong gusts up to 70mph not out of the question around parts of Kent and Essex for example. Windy everywhere but the winds will die down as the day progresses. Tomorrow will be largely dry with decent sunny spells. Maximum temperatures ranging from the 8-12C, mildest on the south coast. Cloud increasing overnight will lead to yet more rain on Monday. Night-time minima around 7C.

Monday will be a wet day though no-where near as windy as Sunday. It may not be until Monday evening when the rain finally clears. Maximum temperatures 9-11C. Cool night into Tuesday with clear spells, night-time minima of 3-5C.

Tuesday may be quite a wet day for parts of the region such as Norfolk and Suffolk, better chance of drier weather further west. Maximum temperatures 7-9C. Night-time minima into Wednesday 3-6C.

More showers along the east coast and maybe the SE corner during Wednesday are likely, though again most likely drier further west. Maximum temperatures 7-9C. Night-time minima into Thursday 2-6C.

UKMO T+120: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

GFS T+120: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

ECM T+120: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

All three models are similar out to T+120 with the low over central Europe (some differences on positioning of the low). Temperatures by day and night cooling due to the NE’ly winds. Increasing risk of frost at night. Maximum temperatures by Friday perhaps 5-7C with temperatures falling below freezing at night in clearer spells. Into the weekend, temperatures again colder by day and night maximums of 3-5C and minima again below freezing. Mainly dry though some showers, particularly in the east of the region cannot be ruled out.

Can’t seem to access the ECM ensemble mean tonight, so here is the GEFS T850 for London:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20121124/12/t850London.png

Mean around -4C until FI.

[tinybill]

just looking at the radar looks like its going to be a nasty old night for some people

[Jason T]

Another poor run from the ECM, ONLY -8 uppers reaching the southcoast by the 2nd and maybe widespread snowfall by the 3rd

I hope we get some upgrades soon or I'm writing this winter off.

ye of little faith my friend,Shotski come on,You of all people should know, Get the cold in first, We are looking at min 10 day event, Melt down in the model thread Monday. There has always been erratic output where Winter is concerned,Especially when we are fine tuning, Keep the faith my friend.

Here we go letter box Knocking on the door.

Edited November 24, 2012 by Jason T

[john pike]

ye of little faith my friend,Shotski come on,You of all people should know, Get the cold in first, We are looking at min 10 day event, Melt down in the model thread Monday. There has always been erratic output where Winter is concerned,Especially when we are fine tuning, Keep the faith my friend.

Here we go letter box Knocking on the door.

hi jason

shotski was messing

[Dexter29]

So calm outside

[Jason T]

Another poor run from the ECM, ONLY -8 uppers reaching the southcoast by the 2nd and maybe widespread snowfall by the 3rd

I hope we get some upgrades soon or I'm writing this winter off.

Bugger, I so walked into that one.

[suffolkboy_]

So calm outside

That surprises me! Can hear the wind from inside the house hear. Only gusting 22mph at the mo.

[Fujita Pearson Scale]

Nasty little low this is......

Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk in for some ferocious winds around Dawn.

Downed trees and some structural damage likely.

Batten down the hatches!!

FPS