Model Output Discussion 25/11/2012 12Z onwards

[chionomaniac]

A far better block by T+126 on the latest GFS run, no leakage of energy east as of yet. In fact it looks remarkably like yesterdays UKMO (144)

[Continental Climate]

Lots of energy going north

Yep that is true about the emergy however our northerly/noreaster is now a bit flabby and just meh

[EML Network]

I think this says it all really...what a mess !!

FI at +108

[Craigers]

12z06z

Better westward movement on the 12z GFS

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm not sure why people have a problem with this run, certainly compared to almost all previous GFS runs it's a much, much cleaner evolution.

[Continental Climate]

Im happy with this run now and ive seen enough http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png much better block in the atlantic and pretty much blocks eastward progression of low pressure systems hopefully sending all the energy north westwards instead of barrelling toward us

[ITSY]

Too early for such details, I know, but heavy snow for the north next Saturday morning (6 days away) on this run.

[Snowstorm1]

On the GFS12z on saturday morning a band of snow is pushing south already a feature has popped up..

EDIT Beaten to it but as im in the Northeast of England starting to get a little excited...

Edited November 25, 2012 by Snowstorm1

[london-snow]

Are we about to see the models in agreement going forward tonight?

Good GFS thus far and more inline with the ukmo which has remained consistent.

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO looks to be, by and large, holding firm:

[IDO]

Frontal snow next Saturday: http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

Turning very cold afterwards: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121125/12/144/ukmintemp.png

Edited November 25, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[AWD]

UKMO looks like its sticking to its guns with a renewed push of heights towards Greenland;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=120&archive=0

[chionomaniac]

UKMO out to T+120 and looks fine with the block as well. Very consistent with this.

[cyclonic happiness]

It is absolutely too far away to get excited about but............................................

Now, over the past few days, the Midlands has been shown as being 'bone dry', I know it's just one run, and it's a million years away, but I'm really ,really happy to see this

[AWD]

And the GFS has widespread snow over the UK from this time next week onwards;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=162&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

So very good output tonight so far for developments over the next week.

Over to the ECM later now!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012112512/UN144-21.GIF?25-17

EPIC UKMO

excellent GFS

S

[January Snowstorm]

Well it looks like Mr.Murr was right

The gfs has backed down this afternoon and followed the UKMO

The UKMO is coming out of all this very very well and is leading the way!

[Bobby]

Heavy snow, -7c uppers and sub-zero daytime temps on Saturday for central areas on 12z GFS. UKMO +144 looking good too

[london-snow]

That will do for me.....

[Barry12]

If the ECM at 6:30 has agreement with the GFS and UKMO then I and many others will start getting excited. Could be heavy snow in 6 days time for me!

[chionomaniac]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?25-17

EPIC UKMO

excellent GFS

S

The GFS is desperately trying to spit a shortwave out from the tip of Greenland - from around T+132 up until T+168 - it just can't cross the Atlantic bridge. Encouraging.

[snowice]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?25-17

EPIC UKMO

excellent GFS

S

are we happy with that low going towards greenland?

[cold snap]

The only disappointment I have is its a slow evolution

Brilliant gfs and ukmo

[PubliusEnigma]

Some real cold come T150 In fact this is the ideal evolution that we would all want to see. Solid Ridge, Low pressure stays generally to west of Greenland

Less short waves. Country wide north easterlies would see towering cumulus in the skies of central and eastern England and Scotland. And this is a week away.

If this were T84, I would seriously get excited. GFS is now in sync with the UKMO. ECM seems to have lost the plot, although its not the best model at handling

these cold blocking scenarios. Lets see if the ECM 12z moves towards the GFS 12z . Will become very encouraging it it does

[Jonan92]

The GFS is desperately trying to spit a shortwave out from the tip of Greenland - from around T+132 up until T+168 - it just can't cross the Atlantic bridge. Encouraging.

Yes, but after that it starts closing blocking again

Much better this run