Model Output Discussion 25/11/2012 12Z onwards

[Swave Snow]

We are going to have a MASSIVE split tonight-

ECM poor. UKMO & GFS excellent.

HUM-

stay on the fence im afraid.

S

Don't think so Steve,

Remember what happened in 2010, they all wobbled very close to the onset of the cold? Plus on Wetter it doesn't look as bad at all.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Swave Snow

[Jonan92]

Please care to explain WHY?

Compare it to GFS and UKMO

Edited November 25, 2012 by Jonan92

[nick sussex]

We are going to have a MASSIVE split tonight-

ECM poor. UKMO & GFS excellent.

HUM-

stay on the fence im afraid.

S

At 72hrs it looked all so good, then went downhill as the failure for that Canadian low to develop and head up west into Greenland.

Thats harpooned the festive spirit! I'm off to see what NOAA have to say, hopefully they've trashed the ECM!

[Geordiesnow]

Must say, when I was reading earlier the GFS is trending the UKMO, I was expecting it to show the low pressure system over Europe to be over Europe, not on the Northern edge of Scandinavia. GFS is NOT like the UKMO and going by the ECM run I'm seeing at the moment, the UKMO is once again sadly on its own.

In all honesty, the charts are not bone chilling cold at the moment, only the UKMO in my eyes may provide some significant snowfall by next weekend, the GFS and ECM don't look cold enough in my eyes.

In fairness, the ECM has probably trended towards the UKMO regarding the low pressure over Europe but it shows a rather poor looking Atlantic ridge in comparison to the UKMO.

[Southender]

ECM following the cannon fodder output and firing up the Atlantic and sinking the block. Wrist slitting about to set in on here?...

[Ice BIast]

The development of that low to the west is very different on the ECM.

[Swave Snow]

Compare it to GFS and UKMO

Look at Wetter please to see why I said what I said

Edited November 25, 2012 by Swave Snow

[PubliusEnigma]

This was the ECM 00z at T120 by way of a comparison..

Low to the south of Greenland MUCH further east at T120 ECM. Worse run than the 00Z. Not sure where it will go from here.

[london-snow]

Very poor ECM out to 120 Hrs that low out to the west is heading east where it needs to head n-nw ideally. Back to the drawing board i guess

[Frosty.]

I'm going to nail my colours to the mast and say I am not buying this cold spell until there's decent ensemble and NAEFS agreement whatever the OP runs show. Hopefully it comes soon but personally I'm waiting til or if we get that.

Well I trust John Holmes a lot more than I trust wobbling fickle ensembles, I also think there is enough evidence of a prolonged cold spell from todays runs so far, just a few rogue runs from the more obscure models, the ukmo and gfs 12z look peachy to me, just hope the ecm is too.

[MR EXTREMES]

dont panic perhaps we need a second bite of the cherry.

[Polar Maritime]

The trend is still for strong blocking, and cold/snow from midweek onwards, and maybe early'er for those living at high elevations.

We will always have the the odd run in FI flip/flopping, it's normal.

[January Snowstorm]

Good grief it's dire at 144hrs.

Let's just hope its wrong

[johnholmes]

as promised a pdf for the next 2 weeks about the overall weather pattern

3-500mb patterns for going into December 2012.pdf

[Chris D]

Hide behind your sofa for the T144 chart. It is not good. HP approaching from SW.

[The Eagle]

oooh that's a kick in the nuts

Worst possible outcome for coldies.

[SMU]

ECM 144 isnt to bad actually -

THe low gets into greenland & starts sending energy SE -

So initially the UK will warm up- however its not destroying the huge cold pool to the east-

I am slightly happier now-

lets see the 168

S

[Mark Neal.]

Ouch! The Block sinks and The Atlantic edges back in by 144hrs- lets hope the ecm is wrong!

[Liam J]

oooh that's a kick in the nuts

Worst possible outcome for coldies.

Yes, and it's the ECMWF so unfortunately this cannot be ignored as a possible outcome, not without support either.

[snowice]

ECM 144 isnt to bad actually -

THe low gets into greenland & starts sending energy SE -

So initially the UK will warm up- however its not destroying the huge cold pool to the east-

I am slightly happier now-

lets see the 168

S

have you given up on ukmo gfs 12z then?

[Jonan92]

The ECM backs up the trend showed in the minor models, while GFS and UKMO stand alone now.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Jonan92

[Harsh Climate]

Looks like people use the term outliar far too much as well lol, I don't really see an outliar out of all the perpetrations!

Let's not forget though in the winter of 2010/11 many times did we have agreement in the esembles of a return to mild only for them to be proven wrong time and time again! Also we saw so called 'cold outliars' prove to be trend setter's and in fact correct when they seemed to have little backing.

People seem to be looking for fine details and shortwaves over a week out, complete madness! .

What we know is the AO and NAO are expected to go quite a lot negative so that says one thing to me at this time of year, COLD and BLOCKING. So what we are seeing is a great start to winter, a couple of months ago I think we would all have given our left arms for charts like these.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Frosty.]

ECM is a disaster

I've seen worse charts : )

[london-snow]

The trend is still for strong blocking, and cold/snow from midweek onwards, and maybe early'er for those living at high elevations.

We will always have the the odd run in FI flip/flopping, it's normal.

The thing is though is that we are now entering reliable time frame between 96 & 120 is where the main action is and where our fate is decided.

Have to admit i am worried now the minors and the ecm v the ukmo & gfs.

[Swave Snow]

as promised a pdf for the next 2 weeks about the overall weather pattern

3-500mb patterns for going into December 2012.pdf

Excellent analysis