Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[snowice]

In a nutshell.

Since last week we don't seem to have got any closer to resolving what will happen this Friday!

your correct models all over the place FI is +96

[nick sussex]

JMA follows the UKMO out to 120 tonight- which is nice-

However ecm has the upper trough a long way north at 120- massive divergence............

ECM 144

poor.

what a day. we have gone nowhere.

Yes the ECM manages to throw another spanner in the works by deciding to bloat that troughing out too far north.

Steve can you tell what it does with the Greenland shortwave? Because of the 24hr jumps its hard to see what happens to it.

Overall I agree we have gone nowhere, just as the ECM looked a bit better upstream it pulls out a Freddie Kruger special with that troughing!

[Frosty.]

Can't work out whether this is a serious post or not.............

Well there is a serious risk of frost by later this week and especially by the weekend, max temps around 3c by friday and plenty of wintry showers peppering northern and eastern coastal counties, really need more of a NE'ly component to blow the wintry showers inland though, cold, crisp and sunny for most and frosty nights.

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Oh dear

[AWD]

FWIW, the JMA offers a snowfest for the UK in FI;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=156&mode=1&nh=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=156&mode=0&nh=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=168&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=168&mode=1&nh=0&archive=0

With a nice little Arctic high;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=168&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

[Matty M]

Not a very pretty ECM after T120hrs!!

But up to T120hr there are good signs. If they can be enhances and the downstream patter change to something closer to the UKM then this can all finish well.

But at the moment the outlook for UK&IRE is very uncertain.

[Geordiesnow]

And this is why since we been following this cold shot why I don't want the trough to head Northwards into Scandinavia because a Northerly would risk the Atlantic coming in probably much quicker than if we have a more blocked easterly flow like the UKMO. Of course, we may keep height rises to our North so even if the westerly winds do make there presence over us, you can't rule out a re-load at least.

Looking at the trough over Europe at 72 hours, it looks like to me its ECM/GEM vs UKMO/GFS/JMA/NOGAPS with both the ECM/UKMO very consistent in what they prefer whilst the others have alternated with both ideas.

So, its which model is the closest regarding the trough and Atlantic ridge which will determine what weather we will get.

[Frosty.]

Another day and another stalemate, thinks it's best to look no more than +48 really.

Yes FI starts early, ecm 12z has at least made some progress for the first part of the run but the ukmo is again leading from the front, just waiting for those movember whiskers to say something that sparks another riot

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[Continental Climate]

ECM pretty ugly at 168 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif!!! I wasnt expecting this !! Im still going with UKMO though, we cant even get agreement about friday lol

[chionomaniac]

Well I am happy with ECM 192 - the underlying trait is maintained.

That mild will get squeezed both ends, I am sure.

Edited November 26, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Jonan92]

It gets a little nicer later

[Southender]

So one step forward from the ECM in the reliable and one step backwards in the not so reliable timeframe. In summary we are no nearer to knowing anything! Something has to give shortly.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012112612/ECH1-192.GIF?26-0

ECM is essentially the JMA without the 120-144 blocking - with the trough driving south East-

More to be resolved on the 00s

S

[chionomaniac]

ECM pretty ugly at 168 http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif!!! I wasnt expecting this !! Im still going with UKMO though, we cant even get agreement about friday lol

Nothing ugly with that chart - it's called resetting.

[Bristawl Si]

I'm surprised at the level of surprise on here this eve.

Ian Fergie, with input from Meto, explained the Pros views earlier this eve - a large degree of uncertainty over the coming week.

Obviously an East meets West scenario - a number of outcomes if we look 5 days+ ahead one would think. Possibly colder towards the weekend, then less cold MAYBE.....then colder again. But who really knows?

[weatherguy]

What was encouraging in the early timeframe...didn't amount to much

No further on from where we were earlier really (minor improvement perhaps regarding the dismal prior upstream pattern?), but it's fantastic news that the UKMO is staunchly sticking to its guns. I'll say exactly what I said yesterday: Hopefully things become by clearer tomorrow!

Edited November 26, 2012 by weatherguy

[Troubleatmill]

never thought i would see this forecast come true!! Still plenty of hope and definately not zonal which has to be good as there is going to be more chances as we head into Winter proper, think this is just our first shot for cold (if we use the ensembles) with another not far behind...not that this one is totally done for. 90's? not

Edited November 26, 2012 by arron123

[andymusic]

ECM pretty ugly at 168 http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif!!! I wasnt expecting this !! Im still going with UKMO though, we cant even get agreement about friday lol

at the start of any cold spell like this - in the past - this has happened time and time and time again - models in dissagreement - only to fall into place with the cold 24-48hrs before the alloted date - patience and nerves of steel are required to see this one through to the bitter cold blizzard end!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Is ECM having another go in FI , This ties in well with Exeter and myself's thoughts ..

[bobbydog]

is it just me or are the fax charts stuck on +72? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000

either that or time stands still for 24 hours.... bit like reading the model thread really....

[Frosty.]

It gets a little nicer later

SNOWFEST for NE BRITAIN, still a few glitches but miles better than last nights nightmare on ecm street.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looking at the bigger picture, once again heights remain across the Arctic with no sign of a strong polar vortex, which means that, no matter how the short term issues with shortwaves are resolved, there's very likely to be another shot not too far down the line:

[bobbydog]

I'm surprised at the level of surprise on here this eve.

Ian Fergie, with input from Meto, explained the Pros views earlier this eve - a large degree of uncertainty over the coming week.

Obviously an East meets West scenario - a number of outcomes if we look 5 days+ ahead one would think. Possibly colder towards the weekend, then less cold MAYBE.....then colder again. But who really knows?

that's not surprising.....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

SNOWFEST for NE BRITAIN, still a few glitches but miles better than last nights nightmare on ecm street.

Uppers do not look that cold, between -2 to -4