Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[Weathizard]

Not sure at T120, to my eyes the pressure looks lower to our north but the ridge looks stronger and the low is in exactly the same place as the UKM

[Met4Cast]

ECM is further east at 120h with lower heights south of Greenland

It will probably be faster to warm up compared to its 00z run and a fairly long way from the UKMO

Thanks for that, with no charts to backup what you're saying either.

UKMO and ECM look similar at T96 to me

ECM

UKMO

Why people feel the need to make comments like this so early into a run is beyond me.

[January Snowstorm]

@ 120hrs emmmm..................NO

Cold yes but dry and frosty

Could be worse, could be better!

Edited November 26, 2012 by January Snowstorm

[Geordiesnow]

The ECM at 96hrs bombs that low to the extreme! That's a good sign for us,

much different trough set up over Europe though compared to UKM and heights lower to the north.

Yep although to be fair the low did "bomb" on the 00Z run which produced a much improved ridge, in fairness all the models are similar with the ridging but the UKMO still produces the strongest ridge and by far the more favorable troughing over Europe.

Its really interesting even at 72 hours, both the UKMO and ECM are disagreeing over how the troughing over Europe will occur.

[pyrotech]

Meto take on what the 12zUKMO shows (Ian fergussons own thoughts)

" Uncertain. We await 12z UKMO-GM awaiting the GM as modified by Exeter: not the raw output as already on web "

So alot looking positive, yet uncertain. will be interesting few hours

Edited November 26, 2012 by pyrotech

[Matty M]

With the way other models have behaved today you would have to favour the consistent UKM]

ECM has moved more towards the UKM again this evening.

Still differences but a big move towards it at the T120hr timeframe.

Again, more runs needed but we appear to be moving towards a cold outcome.

A major difference is indeed the troughing over Europe.

UKM being much more favourable with its southerly orientation.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Matty M

[snowmadchrisuk]

@ 120hrs emmmm..................NO

Cold yes but dry and frosty

Could be worse, could be better!

What i'm seeing at +120 is that High Fighting off the Low with all it's Mite . The High is bound to move East a little as the Low tries to break it down ... Low will probably get through on this run but as FI is so short to see the Low not being able to break straight through is a good sign to me .. Considering this is at yesterdays +144 time frame.

[nick sussex]

As the ECM improves upstream it goes downhill downstream, here the problem is shortwaves to the north, it also bloats out that troughing stopping the Arctic high from ridging south.

Its hard to tell but it looks like it ejects the Greenland shortwave east into the troughing to the north. Overall its like banging your head against a brick wall !

Edited November 26, 2012 by nick sussex

[Backtrack]

@ 120hrs emmmm..................NO

Cold yes but dry and frosty

Could be worse, could be better!

Can't work out whether this is a serious post or not.............

[AWD]

JMA at T120 anyone;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=120&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

A well respected model within the Meto!

[Matty M]

As the ECM improves upstream it goes downhill downstream, here the problem is shortwaves to the north, it also bloats out that troughing stopping the Arctic high from ridging south.

Its hard to tell but it looks like it ejects the Greenland shortwave east into the troughing to the north. Overall its like banging your head against a brick wall !

It's all going to fall in to place at T72hrs and we'll have the last laugh!

[Southender]

So the ECM improves in the early frames, then goes downhill! A slight movement towards the UKMO in the reliable though. Which is the important thing.

[Geordiesnow]

ECM and UKMO are similar regarding the ridging but the 2 models as I said in my previous posts are still disagreeing hugely regarding the trough over Europe and they have for days now! Which means if any ridge is amplified, we have not got a clue whether we get a cold easterly or a slightly less cold Northerly/NNW'ly! Because both models have been so consistent in their view of the trough to our East, I can't decide which model will most likely to be correct, I would rather have the UKMO's version of the trough though, much more likely to be colder and longer lasting.

As it happens, the GFS is closer to the UKMO regarding the trough but it has backed the ECM more in its outputs in that respect. So basically, the ECM and UKMO are sort of similar but they still not in full agreement at all.

[SMU]

JMA follows the UKMO out to 120 tonight- which is nice-

However ecm has the upper trough a long way north at 120- massive divergence............

ECM 144

poor.

what a day. we have gone nowhere.

[swfc]

low comes threw at 144 hours but it is a slight improvement

[The Eagle]

Small progress on the ECM.

JMA will cheer people up

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=0&nh=0&archive=0

[January Snowstorm]

JMA at T120 anyone;

http://www.meteociel...&nh=1&archive=0

A well respected model within the Meto!

Looks very good at 120hrs anyway and not a bad model

[Weathizard]

With the way other models have behaved today you would have to favour the consistent UKM]

ECM has moved more towards the UKM again this evening.

Still differences but a big move towards it at the T120hr timeframe.

Again, more runs needed but we appear to be moving towards a cold outcome.

Agreed. ECM and UKMO(within 120) and other minor models support now against the GFS.

UKMO

ECM

Not great, but better than 00z imo

Edited November 26, 2012 by Weathizard

[ITSY]

either UKMO is broken, or all other models are not worth the money put into them.

[snowmadchrisuk]

-10 850's into the Midlands at +144 , Eastern Coasts would get some Snow from that Chart ..

Edited November 26, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[xioni]

The whole of the UK is in mild air and westerly flow at 168h on this run

It could be short lived though

[AWD]

Whilst the ECM does collapse the block at T144, with uppers like these over the UK;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

There is always the risk of a Wintery breakdown. Not what most want, I know, but it's something!

[NickR]

JMA follows the UKMO out to 120 tonight- which is nice-

However ecm has the upper trough a long way north at 120- massive divergence............

ECM 144

poor.

what a day. we have gone nowhere.

In a nutshell.

Since last week we don't seem to have got any closer to resolving what will happen this Friday!

[UV-RAY]

Another day and another stalemate, thinks it's best to look no more than +48 really.

[phil nw.]

Hey everyone I'm new to net weather,love the forum if a little dramatic lately.I like Steve M's posts,great poster.So I'm coming along for the ride.ECM has the casting vote this evening.My location is West of Ireland.

Hi Yorlum-welcome to the forum.

Stick your location in your avatar if you would please.thanks.