Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[snowmadchrisuk]

Just going through the gfs ens and tbh they are a total mess' everything from. 1050mb Greenland high to. 950mb Greenland pv.

The biggest and strongest theme though is northern/arctic blocking and a jet which tends to be southerly.

Really though they are next to useless, despite some very tasty ones

Yes it is Interesting Ensemble members 9 11 12 13 15 17 19 and 20 still have the block at +144 . That works out at 40% , which says to me GFS could still end up having to back down ... Lots of Snow chances from the East on a lot of them as well.

[IDO]

fergieweather

"@95michael28: @fergieweather UKMO Bitter easterlies still on its sticking to its guns whats your thoughts?" Uncertain. We await 12z UKMO-GM

26/11/2012 16:53

fergieweather

@95michael28 i.e. awaiting the GM as modified by Exeter: not the raw output as already on web

26/11/2012 17:04

Matty H (on Two): Re ECMW

It'll be at odds with the MetO notes from earlier if it does. Personally I think it'll still be "poor" not my word for it I hasten to add.

MetO seemed pretty sure of the block being pushed back after the weekend, even if it is temporarily, and that even somewhat at odds with their own model toward the latter stages

Pros still not certain either way. All to play for I think.

Edited November 26, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[Snowstorm1]

fergieweather

"@95michael28: @fergieweather UKMO Bitter easterlies still on its sticking to its guns whats your thoughts?" Uncertain. We await 12z UKMO-GM

26/11/2012 16:53

fergieweather

@95michael28 i.e. awaiting the GM as modified by Exeter: not the raw output as already on web

26/11/2012 17:04

Pros still not certain either way. All to play for I think.

Yup thats me messaging him haha was going to post when he updated his thoughts

[snowmadchrisuk]

By the weekend the UKMO model is either going to be hero or zero. We should not forget how the models have handled this a we go through winter. Snowgasm is my word of the day 😃

Not really the 144 chart would be today's 120 and so on and most of the Models still have the ridge at +120 , so out to that stage I believe UKMO has already got it right what ever happens.

[Liam J]

BOM rolling out now, this model has been given credit in recent days as apparently it's based on the UKMO in lower resolution - http://www.meteociel...bome_cartes.php

Looking good so far....

Edited November 26, 2012 by Liam J

[labane1977]

Long time lurker and first time poster. Have been following the ups and downs like everyone else and it has been one rollercoaster ride so far. It would be no fun if it was straightforward and got rewarded with snow all the time so when we get wintry precipitation it makes it all the worthwhile. I hope the ECM increases the positive colder vibes further but I have a feeling it will just add further confusion!

[weather eater]

It’s great that the UKMO is sticking to its guns but its consistency is no guarantee that it is making a correct call. The only thing today’s runs have proved is that looking to predict synoptic evolutions post 96hrs is fraught with difficulty, its why the MO tend not to go even that far out and will only generalise post 48hrs and rarely give extreme weather warnings beyond that either.

[AWD]

BOM looking good at T96;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0&carte=1

[Hammer]

Re Ian F earlier comments were these based on the latest 12z data or will this last run be a slight surprise or still fit with general outlook hinted at?

[london-snow]

Forgive me if this is slightly of topic ... but those who are upset about this recent 'mild blip' around Monday 7th - Tuesday 8th should stop. I mean, how much more cold do you want!

To be frank the answer is -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pm4fQRl72k

[Frosty.]

This is real tension now, the ukmo is once again epic and the gem is pretty good for a while, by good I mean cold although I know there are some mildies in here who won't like it. If the Ecm can make some ground back towards the ukmo then it will be a much happier place here tonight, the ecm has already done a moderate backtrack from it's 12z horror show last night, lets hope it can complete the job in the next hour.

750 + are bracing themselves for an EPIC ECM 12Z

[bluearmy]

Matty H (on Two): Re ECMW

It'll be at odds with the MetO notes from earlier if it does. Personally I think it'll still be "poor" not my word for it I hasten to add.

MetO seemed pretty sure of the block being pushed back after the weekend, even if it is temporarily, and that even somewhat at odds with their own model toward the latter stages

Pros still not certain either way. All to play for I think.

matty isnt a pro !! he's a moderator. he wont mind me saying he is far from an expert

[AWD]

This is real tension now, the ukmo is once again epic and the gem is pretty good for a while, by good I mean cold although I know there are some mildies in here who won't like it. If the Ecm can make some ground back towards the ukmo then it will be a much happier place here tonight, the ecm has already done a moderate backtrack from it's 12z horror show last night, lets hope it can complete the job in the next hour.

750 + are bracing themselves for an EPIC ECM 12Z

To be fair even if the ECM is poor we won't have gone any further backwards. We just wouldn't have gone any further forward either. :p

Edited November 26, 2012 by AWD

[PolarWarsaw]

My prediction is a slight backward movement from the ECM- nothing epic though, but a slight improvement.

[snowmadchrisuk]

JMA brings Snowfall in from the East on Thursday, this is looking more and more of a possibility from what I have seen tonight.

My prediction is a slight backward movement from the ECM- nothing epic though, but a slight improvement.

I just want to see the ECM holding that block strong at +120 ...

[Frosty.]

To be fair even if the ECM is poor we won't have gone any further backwards. We just wouldn't have gone any further forward either.

eyes down for an epic run

[Cheese Rice]

BOM/JMA both trending in a positive direction.

[Ice BIast]

JMA much better at than yesterday at T84

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Forgive me if this is slightly of topic ... but those who are upset about this recent 'mild blip' around Monday 7th - Tuesday 8th should stop. I mean, how much more cold do you want!

Monday 7th - tuesday 8th? you mean January?

[Tim Bland]

BOM shows some widespread snow on sat 😃

And a snowy breakdown from SW Mon. Just like the meto update ⛄

Edited November 26, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Weathizard]

BOM/JMA both trending in a positive direction.

Yep, neither are as good as the UKMO(that would be difficult) but they are very similar in their handling of the lows around Greenland The tension we have as the ECM churns out, is palpable, its on a real knife edge here, come on ECM.

[AutumnMists]

Monday 7th - tuesday 8th? you mean January?

3rd and 4th I should say. I'm not with it today

[Yorlum11]

Hey everyone I'm new to net weather,love the forum if a little dramatic lately.I like Steve M's posts,great poster.So I'm coming along for the ride.ECM has the casting vote this evening.My location is West of Ireland.

[snowmadchrisuk]

BOM shows some widespread snow on sat 😃

Quite a few Models have shown a disturbance in the Irish Sea bringing some organised ppn in at the weekend. That would be great as we would still be Cold enough to be all Snow hopefully .. The PPN charts on JMA / Bom and some of the other smaller Models are low resolution though , so we will need to be on Thursday / Friday to have any real idea if this will happen.

[Ice BIast]

Looking not as good on ECM:

The angle on the low is not as good as the UKMO, but could be worse

Edited November 26, 2012 by lce Blast