Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[london-snow]

UKMO says i am not budging a inch and sticks two fingers up to its western enemy

God Almighty even i need a subscribed dose of Prozac after that roller coaster down to you ECM show why you are rated no1 in a good way please..

[SMU]

UKMO has 518 Thickness in the SE at 144-

that is 100% snow from that trough-

S

[Isolated Frost]

Wow- the pattern arrives earlier and STICKS on the UKMO- snow showers for much of Scotland and E England- from Fri to Sun onwards- 144 a dream chart

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

So are we happy again then

[The Eagle]

The UKMO is really cold from 72 hrs really.

[Jonan92]

GEM

[sebastiaan1973]

Please take a look at this chart. You can find the 850hpa temperatures.

Edited November 26, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[IDO]

Looks like we are heading for a week of faux zonal from next Monday if GFS 12z materialises. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121126/12/228/npsh500.png

Reload potential keeps showing up in FI so hope if we do miss out on the first attempt. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121126/12/312/h500slp.png

Mind you that looks similar to the coming weekend. Deja Vu?

[london-snow]

Not a great 144hrs from ukmo though

Why is that not good please explain...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not a great 144hrs from ukmo though

144 is absolutely fine.....don't by misled by that deep low, it should just keep disrupting with the block able to hold firm as it does so. All conjecture though, it's not going to be an easy ride getting to that point,if we do at all!

[Jonan92]

GFS showing that blocking is trendy in the long FI

[Tony Beets]

Not a great 144hrs from ukmo though

Why??

[Southender]

Not a great 144hrs from ukmo though

Eh?

What on earth are you looking at?

[Panayiotis]

At 276hrs we are looking at a repeat of what could happen this week (hopefully)! With the low off eastern USA bringing the high pressure northwards to Greenland. (FI though)

[nick sussex]

Wonderful UKMO with low pressure to the west already disrupting, you'd likely see a shortwave ejected after that with this running se, could bring some significant snow on its eastern flank.

As long as the block holds for this first Atlantic attack then things could look very good.

[Downburst]

Folks, look at the met office guidance also, not just the model run, the written reports and indeed the actual presented forecast. Also you have to wait for ECM this evening to verify this.

[Geordiesnow]

The only suspect thing on this UKMO run is how the low off the coast of Canada/America to deepen from just under 1000MB to 960MB in just the space of 24 hours, would deliver some severe Blizzards to Canada though if this run did came off.

I thought it would back down in fairness to something like this morning's ecm run but nope it has not and its still wants to keep the troughing over a favorable place aswell. Much more potential if this run came off.

[Matty M]

The UKMO is really cold from 72 hrs really.

Yup look at 72hr 850hPa temps

Not to snow levels yet but certainly wintry showers.

[Weathizard]

Not a great 144hrs from ukmo though

Serious comment? If so, Explain?

Can't quite blieve how solid the UKMO is at the moment, probably some of the best consistency we've seen from any model. Lets hope the ECM gets on board tonight. UKMO & ECM vs GFS would be a formidable team.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Weathizard

[Cheshire Freeze]

IF we can get ECM on board with UKMO tonight, it'll be most models ganging up on GFS......that would be a good position to be in!

[January Snowstorm]

The 144hrs chart to me says absolute brutal cold for most but the atlantic about to fight back from the West

That's my interpretation anyway though I suppose it is IMBY a bit

[EML Network]

The 12z GFS looks like the same run repeated twice...a gentle breakdown, a week of more mobile weather, and then an exact repeat.

What are the chances ??

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

GFS showing that blocking is trendy in the long FI

Yes trendy indeed sir, here comes the GFS with his Jimmy Choo's

[SMU]

Please take a look at this chart. You can find the 850hpa temperatures.

For the SE I would be using the 532 DAM contour line & the 1012/1013 MB pressure so ~ -9C.

S

[January Snowstorm]

Yup look at 72hr 850hPa temps

Not to snow levels yet but certainly wintry showers.

Yes it has definatly upped the cold uppers, pardon the pun