Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[January Snowstorm]

The 12z isnt a bad run but the lack of proper blocking to our North is notable!!

[NickR]

LET BATTLE COMMENCE

stale mate ?? The UK sandwiched between HP to the West, LP to the East and dry, sadly I don't think were going to be any the wiser as to the eventual outcome, this is literally on a knife edge, the 12z run IMO will be an improvement on it's 06z ever so slightly, the pendulum swings steadily back IMO were still none the wiser ?

Now THAT'S a pair of rose-tinted specs!

[nick sussex]

sledge quickly put away

No I'd keep it to hand the GFS threw in its obligatory shortwave to the north that small feature to the north at 138hrs which rides in to stop the ridge from going nw over the top of the low.

[Weathizard]

Typical shortwave drama again, why can't it go over the top, gfs always produces drama, a few tweaks here and there though and we'll be in business, a much better run imo within a reliable timeframe.

Hard to believe that a little shortwave can turn into a massive 975-980 depression within two frames, and also that its there, disappears and comes back again!!

[Pixel]

Welcome to the net weather model output discussion thread. People who suffer with the following are advised to seek medical advice before viewing.

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Dr Nick Sussex is on hand to provide prozac pills for a small fee to those in need.

Out to 108+ and a slight hint of westward progression compared to the low pressure system...

LOL

Maybe the model thread should be closed as each GFS run starts ( a kind of radio silence) and then open up when it reaches t144. It may give folk a chance to count pills, hold on to something / pour a glass of something nice before writing epitaphs

Same happens every year…

[ITSY]

could still produce hefty snow at the 'breakdown' over the pennines at around t130. that will be gone by tomorrow though!

It's actually quite funny at t+156. look at the PPN charts and you'll see snow to the South, East, West and North of the UK. Pretty standard stuff then! - even Morocco fair's better

Edited November 26, 2012 by ITSY

[andy_leics22]

the t150 chart literally puts the UK slap bang in the middle of it!

The 12z is an improvement over the 06z for cold/snow lovers but i'll be interested to see what the 12z ensembles look like.

[Bobby]

It doesn't matter too much what happens after T120hrs.

This is still a very fluid situation, i think however we are getting more of an idea what might happen, attempts for the Atlantic getting in but hopefully when it comes to it getting pushed southwards and sheared away.

It's seems pretty clear to me from +114 how the rest of the run would go, that low can only flattern things and push the cold East.

Not much of a battleground either

Edited November 26, 2012 by Barb-

[Geordiesnow]

Pretty rubbish, standard UK weather. The block simply cannot handle a low of that magnitude, therefore the block gives up, allowing energy to be sent over the top, squashing the ridge.

Another poor run, and another step towards a chilly snap, rather than a cold spell.

Its not the strength of the lows that are the problem, its the energy from the jet stream which determines things, I mean, ideally a stronger low will send more WAA therefore strengthening any ridges.

In some way, previous outputs has cold winning but the mild air is fighting back and its one of those nail biting times in this thread.

[Ian Brown]

T144 and the low is deepening, it's only going to go one way from here. Maybe the crumb of comfort is that minor changes could see a different outcome but on this run the battle is lost.

[Hammer]

6z and then 12z key period during 0-90 hours subtle changes that at first glance appear more favourable for later on. Between say T90 hours to about T141 again though it looks messy. Less favourable as we move through T141 onwards.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Hammer

[The Eagle]

Could be another good run on the NOGAPS model

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php

[chionomaniac]

Pretty rubbish, standard UK weather. The block simply cannot handle a low of that magnitude, therefore the block gives up, allowing energy to be sent over the top, squashing the ridge.

Another poor run, and another step towards a chilly snap, rather than a cold spell.

You really ought to hold fire, because I think you are reading things wrong. In the semi reliable we are seeing a battle royale, with energy trying to cross the Atalantic and not getting any where fast. Meanwhile the warm wedge is getting eroded by both sides and ridging is doing its best to hold onto East Greenland.

[Weathizard]

UKMO on its way out, it MUST hold in my opinion, otherwise it could be kaput

[london-snow]

T144 and the low is deepening, it's only going to go one way from here. Maybe the crumb of comfort is that minor changes could see a different outcome but on this run the battle is lost.

However by 162+ that lp is getting squashed and looks to be retreating back west Ian could be game on here..

[bluearmy]

ITS OK EVRYONE - THE UKMO IS THE SAME AT 06 HOURS. PHEW

WHAT FUN - I HOPE NO ONE IS TAKING THIS TOO SERIOUSLY

[Backtrack]

Its not the strength of the lows that are the problem, its the energy from the jet stream which determines things, I mean, ideally a stronger low will send more WAA therefore strengthening any ridges.

In some way, previous outputs has cold winning but the mild air is fighting back and its one of those nail biting times in this thread.

Still time for that energy to dive SE'wards I guess, but it's really getting to the point of no return now, yeah waa toward Greenland would strengthen the block, but with the jet running that close to it, moving eastwards all the time, it's only a short amount of time before the exact scenario the 12z is suggesting actually happens.

An unbelievable backtrack (no pun intended) from the models since yesterday.

[Chris D]

You really ought to hold fire, because I think you are reading things wrong. In the semi reliable we are seeing a battle royale, with energy trying to cross the Atalantic and not getting any where fast. Meanwhile the warm wedge is getting eroded by both sides and ridging is doing its best to hold onto East Greenland.

Agree completely, the GFS is much slower with the Atlantic making much less inroads. That's very clear from this run.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Chris D

[SMU]

Afternoon-

The difference of the GFS being great at 150- 168 is probably a difference of 5 M/S on the jet & its subsequent attenuation.

Were still in the game.

S

[london-snow]

Its retreating back west with a whim by 168 all is not lost...

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogaps/runs/2012112612/nogapsnh-0-108.png?26-17

NOGAPS shows that critical slower jet

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

Afternoon-

The difference of the GFS being great at 150- 168 is probably a difference of 5 M/S on the jet & its subsequent attenuation.

Were still in the game.

S

I agree.....very knife edge situation this and the 12z is VERY close to being a very good run...doesn't quite get there on this run though.

[NorthernRab]

I am truly astounded how many people are putting so much faith in the GFS' handling of the depth a low 120 hours away or so. Once bitten twice shy I'd have thought, but apparently not!

Edited November 26, 2012 by NorthernRab

[andy_leics22]

Its retreating back west with a whim by 168 all is not lost...

It's as flat as a pancake though

[Backtrack]

You really ought to hold fire, because I think you are reading things wrong. In the semi reliable we are seeing a battle royale, with energy trying to cross the Atalantic and not getting any where fast. Meanwhile the warm wedge is getting eroded by both sides and ridging is doing its best to hold onto East Greenland.

Looks like a poor battleground to me though Chiono? I really do think we've hit the point of no return, and that any battleground will be pretty standard with any wintryness turning quickly to rain.

I can see erosion taking place, but the question is, can it erode quick enough?