Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[UV-RAY]

Are we any nearer to a solution you might ask, I would say not yet as this could got to +48 before we see model consensus. Certainly a great learning curve!

[AWD]

Yes the GEM is a Gem of a run

Not quite as good as the UKMO;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&carte=1

It flattens the pattern out after this but an improvement, like all 12z output so far tonight, towards the UKMO in the short term.

[UV-RAY]

I think on wetter it will tell that pressure is rising to the West, and yes anyway it's dry for Ireland and Western Britain.

It certainly would be dry for Western parts but at least the block holds, which is far better if this turns out to be the case then having to wait for the next instalment.

[bluearmy]

UKMO 144 if you look close

has a little area of 511 DAM thickness edging west from the low countries- Calculation- 520 dam along the 1010MB contour is 520 - 8.7 DAM = 511.3 thickness

S

Steve - you always get the meteociel tickness out by 4 dam. the blues start at 544 on the larger chart and 532 on the french one. last time i pointed this out to you it didnt matter as we all got snowed in anyway. lets hope its an omen.

ukmo helps to hold the pendulum back somewhat. would be nice for ecm to make a step towards it this evening although expecting it to look similar to the west and north seems forlorn. maybe we can hope it picks up the ukmo treatment of the trough to our east.

[Southender]

The Canadians are on board. Not perfect but leaning towards the UKMO.

[phil nw.]

Yes the UKMO would certainly be pointing to a colder spell and probably longer lasting as energy would possibly undercut the block later on drawing the cold further west from Scandinavia and E.Europe.

In that setup we could see a sort of battleground between the 2 air masses, with snow somewhere, as the Atlantic tries to make another attack..

The GFS much the same as earlier sending the energy further north and cutting through the block.This would send us into a more north westerly setup with less cold polar maritime incursions- or cold zonality as it`s often called- next week.

The energy distribution from the north west is key-too much going west-east-then it`s the GFS.

Ejecting further south east then we are looking at something along the lines of the UKMO.

[Jonan92]

This would be a nice solution

[Jupiters Winter]

Negatively - Still NO cross model agreement and UKMO has been known to shift in vice versa situations in the past at a closer timeframe, the gremlins of the past are out of the box at the moment and patiently waiting for the UKMO (next few runs time) to shift into the lines of GFS/ECM.

Positively - UKMO with its CONSISTENCY has been amazing and holding firm for over a week now. UKMO has had cross model agreement from all other models over the last week at some point.

[SMU]

BA you are correct.

but even so 515 DAM is cool-

thanks-

S

[Frosty.]

Once again the ukmo sticks to it's guns, and gfs pulls back the Atlantic after it's usual wobble with the handling of the block. Still details will not be resolved for a day or two yet. We just need the ECM to jump back on now for cross model agreement.

I don't think I can stand a repeat of what happened on here last night if the ecm flops, but again today we have more or less returned to where we were synoptically before the ecm carnage began, please ecm don't do that to us again

[January Snowstorm]

Yes the GEM is a Gem of a run

GEM shows the atlantic gaining control post 156hrs abit like the UKMO if it went out that far

I'm sorry folks but whilst I like the UKMO at 144hrs it looks to me as if the atlantic will take over shortly after that.

That's my interpretation of whats been shown

In general though it's well FI at that stage so liable to change for the better

In general am well pleased with UKMO

[MR EXTREMES]

Well upgrades tonight ecm could well deliver aswell but be warned downgrades tomorrow so best enjoy tonight's.

But I'm pleased to see a cold spell and confident of a cold Deember.

Let battle commence.

A day at a time been reading gp post and Steve m and john holms post really do make the picture clearer I'm sitting back and enjoying the ride and the most interesting model watching since Francis willson 1980s weather reports.

[Southender]

Huge ECM coming up in an hour or so. I would take a subtle shift back towards the UKMO at this stage.

[Buriedundersnow]

in the ukmo run what it does with the first low in greenland between 60h and 72h where it splits the low and takes part up west greenland and part comes into the trough would it not do the same to the low at 144h

then the block could build again in the atlantic towards greenland

Edited November 26, 2012 by Buriedundersnow

[Panayiotis]

Well upgrades tonight ecm could well deliver aswell but be warned downgrades tomorrow so best enjoy tonight's.

But I'm pleased to see a cold spell and confident of a cold Deember.

Let battle commence.

A day at a time been reading gp post and Steve m and john holms post really do make the picture clearer I'm sitting back and enjoying the ride and the most interesting model watching since Francis willson 1980s weather reports.

How would you ever know, how tomorrows runs will be downgrades?

[TAFKAP]

Well upgrades tonight ecm could well deliver aswell but be warned downgrades tomorrow so best enjoy tonight's.

But I'm pleased to see a cold spell and confident of a cold Deember.

Let battle commence.

A day at a time been reading gp post and Steve m and john holms post really do make the picture clearer I'm sitting back and enjoying the ride and the most interesting model watching since Francis willson 1980s weather reports.

'downgrades tomorrow' care to explain? What crystal ball are you using?

[SnowObsessor90]

Well, well, well, it looks we're still hanging on in there just about. Will the ECM start helping to pull us back up or will it stay true to recent form and completely push us off? I guess only the next or so will tell.

[Continental Climate]

Im not sure this chart screams of the atlantic being in control http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif!!

Anyway awesome run from the UKMO ive been saying that for two days now!!! because of its tenacity in these situations follow the UKMO as it has been rock solid throughout!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif!! excellent chart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif!! Awesome chart!!

There are a few posters on the forum who are on a wind up im sure one posted back that the UKMO was a dreadful run, a clear wind up!! Anyway rant over

[london-snow]

@ The Eagle - I am still waiting for you to explain what in the hell's bells is wrong with the ukmo at 144+?

@January Snowstorm post #713 - How can you say that when it only goes up to 144 hrs? Even at 144hrs the ukmo shows there is signs between 120 & 144 that anything attacking in from the west is going to fail.

[Chris D]

Huge ECM coming up in an hour or so. I would take a subtle shift back towards the UKMO at this stage.

I have absolutely no idea now! I am somewhat still recovering after that UKMO run! I hope NW servers can cope when the ECM comes out tonight...lol

I am simply amazed by the UKMO's consistency.

[camiscool]

if the ukmo is right all along massive respect to them ! who agrees?

[swfc]

'downgrades tomorrow' care to explain? What crystal ball are you using?

To be honest its as good a call ive heard in the last 24-36 hrs???from snowmaggedon to hell and back lol

[Bobby]

That low on the UKMO deepens 40-45mb in 24 hours, how likely is that? Seems quite extreme to me. Hopefully it's right.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Barb-

[January Snowstorm]

Just seen the UKMO on Wetter and it does look better for further down the line. (was previously viewing on meteociel)

Anyway back on topic, let's await the ECM

[phil nw.]

Some posters are straying off model discussions.

It spoils the thread for everyone else so let`s get back to the topic please.

Thanks all.