Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[peterf]

Hey everyone I'm new to net weather,love the forum if a little dramatic lately.I like Steve M's posts,great poster.So I'm coming along for the ride.ECM has the casting vote this evening.My location is West of Ireland.

pop it in your profile.

[Met4Cast]

Looking not as good on ECM:

The angle on the low is not as good as the UKMO, but could be worse

Looks fine to me?

Perhaps we should wait until the run actually progresses until we make judgement

[fergieweather]

Re Ian F earlier comments were these based on the latest 12z data or will this last run be a slight surprise or still fit with general outlook hinted at?

12z. Raw output no real surprise (other than 12z has no hint of the low over E English Channel that 00Z run had progged for midnight Sunday). Just been chatting it through with UKMO. Anyway, happy enough in these parts as currently looks a decent, effectively dry if cold weekend for my patch at least... Modified output and cross-model analysis to that range (4-5d) will be sent to us later this evening from Ops Centre's MR desk. Scope of any Atlantic incursion early next week remains subject to considerable uncertainty, of course.

[london-snow]

Hey everyone I'm new to net weather,love the forum if a little dramatic lately.I like Steve M's posts,great poster.So I'm coming along for the ride.ECM has the casting vote this evening.My location is West of Ireland.

Welcome to N-W Yorlum11 better strap yourself in its going to be one heck of a hour coming up.

[Methuselah]

Long time lurker and first time poster. Have been following the ups and downs like everyone else and it has been one rollercoaster ride so far. It would be no fun if it was straightforward and got rewarded with snow all the time so when we get wintry precipitation it makes it all the worthwhile. I hope the ECM increases the positive colder vibes further but I have a feeling it will just add further confusion!

Welcome to netweather labane...Please put location in profile.

[Isolated Frost]

STUNNING Gfs 13z-- can't wait for the ensembles, well worth the £799.99 a week btw if you want to pm me your bank account details-

look at the flow- superb

BANK

[london-snow]

Looking not as good on ECM:

The angle on the low is not as good as the UKMO, but could be worse

Its only up to 72+ atm have a bit of faith that low is not even developed yet.

[Matty M]

ECM 72hr not looking too good compared to UKM

[Geordiesnow]

Looking not as good on ECM:

The angle on the low is not as good as the UKMO, but could be worse

Looks the same too me regarding the low but the angle of the low in Europe is different to the UKMO once again on this run, this could suggest if any ridge does form, we will see more of a Northerly flow instead of an easterly?

Next few frames will be interesting too see.

[Jonan92]

It seem to be too east

[The Eagle]

ECM 72hr not looking too good compared to UKM

Looks ok to me. That's an interesting front straggling Ireland btw at 72hrs.

[Matty M]

The ECM at 96hrs bombs that low to the extreme! That's a good sign for us,

much different trough set up over Europe though compared to UKM and heights lower to the north.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Matty M

[January Snowstorm]

Looks fine to me at 96hrs

[Tony Beets]

Low is looking good at 96!!!

Lol

Edited November 26, 2012 by The MilkyBarKid

[LomondSnowstorm]

STUNNING Gfs 13z-- can't wait for the ensembles, well worth the £799.99 a week btw if you want to pm me your bank account details-

look at the flow- superb

BANK

Nah, too slack for my liking, looks like the Atlantic's about to come in and smash the block and we'll be stuck in a positive NAO phase for the next ten years.

[warrenb]

This could quite easily go the way of the Meto

[snowice]

STUNNING Gfs 13z-- can't wait for the ensembles, well worth the £799.99 a week btw if you want to pm me your bank account details-

look at the flow- superb

BANK

12z you mean

[weatherguy]

Signs good from the ECM so far, that deep low should really drag that high up through Greenland as long as it behaves itself!

[kumquat]

This should follow the UKMO - there's really nothing in it. Although agree with Geordie re: the northerly flow in our neck of the woods.

Edited November 26, 2012 by kumquat

[Zenarcher]

ECM at 96 hours is very alike to the UKMO and disagrees with the GFS. Places the low in the same place as the UKMO while the GFS has it further North.

[Weathizard]

T96 looks pretty much identical to me?

[london-snow]

Would people just hold their comments until that low develops this is what holds the key and looks fine to me at 96+ next two frames crucial...

Edited November 26, 2012 by london-snow

[xioni]

ECM is further east at 120h with lower heights south of Greenland

It will probably be faster to warm up compared to its 00z run and a fairly long way from the UKMO

[LomondSnowstorm]

Much better looking at +96 than last night's run, the issue with that low off the eastern seaboard seems to have been resolved favourably for us, although that's certainly not the only issue to watch out for.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

12z you mean

Whoosh!

Looks like the Atlantic high further to the east.