Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[london-snow]

It's as flat as a pancake though

My point being is that block is one tough cookie to break.

[Southender]

UKMO looks to be holding firm...

[Iceberg]

look at the jet peeps, the low does not have the only option of going towards us, it shoots a bunch of energy over but we have a fantastic retogressive jet, see below with the jet going east to west from iceland and up the west of greenland. GFS has tried so hard to get the recipe right, but just hasn't got things in the right order, a few tweaks and this would be a METO run from the last few days. Hang in there.

[Jupiters Winter]

Change spotted on UKMO towards the NW - UKMO to shift now I suppose to the GFS solution?

[Matty M]

850hpa temps on the 72hr UKM chart are quite interesting! Down to -6c over Ireland and -4c generally.

[Mucka]

UKMO looks to be holding firm...

72h

Better than the GFS 12z

Pattern backed slightly further West and a little more amplification to the West as well.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Mucka

[chionomaniac]

Looks like a poor battleground to me though Chiono? I really do think we've hit the point of no return, and that any battleground will be pretty standard with any wintryness turning quickly to rain.

I can see erosion taking place, but the question is, can it erode quick enough?

I am not talking specifics BT like will it rain or snow. I am talking block vs Atlantic short wave energy. I wouldn't even look at specifics regarding the UK yet - you will be disappointed or elated every run if you do that!

[Jonan92]

[AWD]

It ain't budging;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

Edited November 26, 2012 by AWD

[Southender]

Stick that in your pipe GFS/ECM

Edited November 26, 2012 by Shrimper

[LomondSnowstorm]

Consistency once again from the UKMO.

[Matty M]

UKM i love you! What a run to 120hrs.

I anticipate NW to meltdown in T-60 seconds

[SMU]

UKMO SAYS

PWNT > GFS

S

[Chris D]

Staggering output from UKMO.

The saga of epic proportions continues further!

Edited November 26, 2012 by Chris D

[Geordiesnow]

No backtrack from the UKMO, more amplified than the GFS, the plot thickens!

Although how does a low deepen that much so quickly is a bit unbelievable mind you!

[January Snowstorm]

UKMO says freezer baby!!

[Weathizard]

NOGAPS and UKMO look to have stuck to their guns.

[karlos1983]

UKMO Still looks good to me at 120. All in all a better run id say, will explain my reasons when I have a bit of time later, will be a good test for me, better go before I get sacked!!

[Southender]

UKMO @ 144

[Azores Hi]

As a long term user of this forum it constantly frustrates me that every year we get the same issues. Are people not able to watch a model run without constant comment on every single frame? It fills this thread with utter drivel year after year and I'm sick of it! In this one run alone we have had dozens of one line comments which add nothing to the discussion. One second winter's over the next it's all to play for, all on the position of a shortwave! Wait a few minutes and see what happens, please don't post on every frame...

I pity the poor moderator who has to watch this thread, if it was me at least 70% of the last 4 pages would be in the bin! Including this post

[Matty M]

Will we start to complain a little bit about the T144hrs for it lacking perfection?!

Certainly some low minima inland UK, negative double figures.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012112612/UN144-21.GIF?26-17

KABOOM

[Chris D]

Pretty much a hurricane-esqe system heading for Newfoundland at T96 on UKMO!

Edited November 26, 2012 by Chris D

[January Snowstorm]

Not a great 144hrs from ukmo though

[Zenarcher]

Interesting 12z runs so far but at the moment I feel the GFS may be wrong due to lack of support so far at the moment,

Yes the GFS and the ECM have changed around in the last day but now agree on it moving up to the West of Greenland it's just that at the moment the GFS creates an annoying little low around 120 hours this travels along and breaks down our ridging, the UKMO does not show this and NOGAPS still backs it up, therefore they are both much better runs this afternoon,

UKMO 120 hours 12z

GFS 120 hours 12z

UKMO remains consistent and does have support from the 00z ECM it didn't show this annoying low either.