Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012

[mcweather]

Memories of Feb 78 in deep FI. a thoroughly cold run 12z run and some continuity beginning to show on the GFS now.

Edited December 1, 2012 by mcweather

[lorenzo]

LOL @ Jetstream in FI. Ha ha !!! Look at that bottom arm..

[bobbydog]

i won't use the word 'trend' yet but thats 2 consecutive runs which have tried (by slightly different routes) to fire a chunk of the vortex at us!

[Eskimo]

Where's that bit of PV going? Purely speculatively of course.

I have never seen that being modeled ever before. If anyone knows at all, when was that sort of synoptic last shown? (verified/unverified)

[UV-RAY]

Memories of Feb 78 in deep FI. a thoroughly cold run 12z run and some continuity beginning to show on the GFS now.

Was it not Feb 79?

The signal for an extended cold spell has definitely gone up a notch or two during the last 24 hours, it seems that we are entering a win, win situation as heights build left right and centre.

[bluearmy]

we have a trend from gfs and it fits with a fair sized cluster of gefs members from the past few suites. other models are headed in a similar pattern so if this the direction of travel for second week december, would be nice if the nwp behaved itself and counted down nicely. (fat chance!!)

[Panayiotis]

Where's that bit of PV going? Purely speculatively of course.

Its going to head south of the UK bringing us +50mph winds all the way from China (not a hopecast!), 4 days before the end of the world....(although i dont believe in it) Edited December 1, 2012 by panayiotis

[cyclonic happiness]

This is rather a striking image for this time of the year, Greenland near thawing point in one frame!! Now has that ever happened in December?

[phil nw.]

Another cold FI but in all honesty nothing different in the first week on either the GFS/UKMO run.

Still that tough digging into Europe fed by the vortex to our north on a nw-se track so keeping things rather cold.

Pretty much as the 00z mean outputs show.

GFS shows more amplification of the Atlantic heights towards the end of the HR period bringing the UK a colder northerly ahead of the High.

[bobbydog]

Where's that bit of PV going? Purely speculatively of course.

it would be great to see that modelled at +48 hours out. as in the day after tomorrow........

[Methuselah]

Was it not Feb 79?

The signal for an extended cold spell has definitely gone up a notch or two during the last 24 hours, it seems that we are entering a win, win situation as heights build left right and centre.

Yee Haa!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119781231.gif

[weather eater]

Wonderful but.

Now I don’t want to spoil a great run, but when do these ever come off, a decade of model watching and I’ve seen it once in 2010 and that was 240hrs. Easterly’s at 120hrs I can buy into, but at 300 plus I’ll hang back on the excitement for a good while yet, so much time for changes. What is pleasing is the continuity out to 120hrs; I’ll bank that for now.

[Zakos]

Quite an amazing run from the GFS. UK stays cold throughout, apart from 2 mild blips.

]

Current pattern of NE winds

mild blip

plunged back into cold conditions again

2nd mild blip

straight back into cold from a northerly.

Cold throughout the rest of the run.

The next 2 weeks look to be dominated by cold conditions, with perhaps some very short lived mild spells. These could potentially bring major snow events in places.

I think the image below depicts where i think the cold conditions are most likely to prevail.

Areas inside the 528 dam line on this image, I would expect to see cold and, any snow, to last for the majority of the next two weeks.

Areas outside this boundary will see cold and snow. I firmly believe cold air will sweep across the whole UK at times. The boundary simply marks where there will likely be mild spells at times.

The UK is looking like being on the boundary of cold and mild. At least for now.

Edited December 1, 2012 by Zakos

[The Northern Ramper]

If Calsberg did model runs for the lead up to xmas.....

If that verified i would be buried until new year.

[jonnybradley]

here we go guys 138 we have atlantic link up towards Greenland-

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-138.png?12

WATCH IT BUILD

Help me out here guys? How dose this look picture look compare to what the 500mb anomalies are showing for this period, re John's PDF from yesterday?

any thoughts

[ChartViewer]

To my eyes the 12z paints a much more plausible way to cold...Stunning run in my eyes.......Much better than the 06z.....but the trends are there from all runs...UKMO even joining in..................

Could be a very cold Dec what with Strat thread, models now startng to show trends to Scandi/GH connection........interesting times model watching over next 7 days.............Also all forecast anomalies show blocking NW/NE...Only one way that would go with low heights in Europe.....Us cold!!!!!

[MKN]

Realistically that's the most extreme outcome shown by the gfs. What is more pleasing is the consistancy earlier on for continued cold apart from these mild blips. Whether or not we end up with the day after tommorow scenario or not the chances are very much in favour of cold. Hopefully it will stretch out till we get to Xmas.

[mcweather]

Would be interesting to get GP's thoughts on where the GFS seems to want to take us.

[london-snow]

Loving the enthusiastic approach over the past day from some. However we are seeing these very exciting charts at 300+ again and again which has virtually no chances of being correct unless it has support.

My punt for the pattern in the next 8-12 days is for a reoccurring pattern of brief milder blips followed by colder air (A tug of war if you like). Coldest in the north and mildest in the south and west.

I did ask a question last night after GP saying look for a average of -3c. How doe's he expect this to come off?

More of the same as we are seeing?

HP taking over which would keep the temps below average?

Or the GFS charts we are seeing in fi coming off?

Edited December 1, 2012 by london-snow

[MR EXTREMES]

Yee Haa!

http://www.wetterzen...00119781231.gif

is this really a realistic outcome i cant see this happening 1963 wont be a touch on this chart.

greenland heights and scandi heights this surely needs to be taken with a pinch of salt but nice to see uk in the cold theme and i wonder if GP would put his neck on the line to answer whether this chart outcome is a little to far fetched or a strong possiblity??????????

[mcweather]

Loving the enthusiastic approach over the past day from some. However we are seeing these very exciting charts at 300+ again and again which has virtually no chances of being correct unless it has support.

My punt for the pattern in the next 8-12 days is for a reoccurring pattern of brief milder blips followed by colder air (A tug of war if you like). Coldest in the north and mildest in the south and west.

Actually LS the exciting bit starts as early as 168

[UV-RAY]

is this really a realistic outcome i cant see this happening 1963 wont be a touch on this chart.

greenland heights and scandi heights this surely needs to be taken with a pinch of salt but nice to see uk in the cold theme and i wonder if GP would put his neck on the line to answer whether this chart outcome is a little to far fetched or a strong possiblity??????????

I think GP is far too wily to get involved in Synoptics at + 10000. Edited December 1, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Frosty.]

Stunning GFS 12z, building on the 00z and 6z, from a coldies frost tinted perspective, the gfs so far today has been amazing and the ukmo 12z is also stellar, just need the ecm 12z to make it a full house. The PV never stood a chance against edward and the office shredder

All this and a cold metoffice update, life is good.

[Polar Maritime]

Loving the enthusiastic approach over the past day from some. However we are seeing these very exciting charts at 300+ again and again which has virtually no chances of being correct unless it has support.

My punt for the pattern in the next 8-12 days is for a reoccurring pattern of brief milder blips followed by colder air (A tug of war if you like). Coldest in the north and mildest in the south and west.

But.. thats the thing LS, the trend overall in the models is for a severe cold spell from the middle of the month, hence why we keep it in FL. and it keeps showing up.

Edited December 1, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[snowking]

Well whilst the UKMO is a tiny bit less favourable than the GFS (and I mean the teeniest little bit - the nit-picking would be the slightly weaker slider LP's, though in all honesty it would probably still end up similar to the GFS up until 192) also worth remembering as Nick showed last night that its verification at present actually means we should be looking at the JMA with baited breath:

If both the JMA and ECMWF are trending in a similar direction this evening, then serious cause for optimism

SK