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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 1st 2012>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

simon "annoying voice" parkin just said on ITV weather - "maybe even a dusting over the downs by tomorrow morning"

Now that statement I can believe, perhaps at 95% or above accuracy too. acute.gif

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Here is my snow risk map.

post-15503-0-73525300-1354635984_thumb.j

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

5c here and light to mod rain showers.

Wondering if viewing the 12 z later is possible with my eyes closed??

according to steve m ,its a big one!

Has he seen into the future, mind you, if I dare to look, it is rolling now.

IMHO, it is the one run that you can trust, with still a high degree of uncertainty.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Southender Seasoned

Southender

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
Posted

GFS 12z goes for a touch of the white stuff in more Northern & Eastern parts of our region around rush hour tomorrow...

21-779.GIF?04-12

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

At t+78, the GFS 12z is indeed trending very nicely in the direction of entrenched cold and maybe some snowy outbreaks. drinks.gif

So far, so good. It is only one run but yetserday's was also a belter, if a wee bit dry, IIRC.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

That map is perfection, Perfect Storm. biggrin.png

I was wondering whether to go into further detail or not... tongue.png

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Mrsf16 Apprentice

Mrsf16

Posted
  • Location: SW Peterborough (A1/A605 Jct)
  • Location: SW Peterborough (A1/A605 Jct)
Posted

ment to push south too so looks good

Not if you live in the north of the region ;):p
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

12z looks like a downgrade to me.

Precipitation is now due to hit a little later - so, somewhere between 9am and noon,

post-5986-0-36769800-1354638276_thumb.gi

At that time, dew points are "marginal" to "certainly not" at sea-level; get's better with height, of course,

post-5986-0-63922600-1354638329_thumb.gi

Theta-W's are OK - I guess - this is the highlight (and it's reasonably good news)

post-5986-0-29404600-1354638361_thumb.gi

But heights for Kent/E Sussex are right on the cusp of simply raining,

post-5986-0-03034200-1354638399_thumb.gi

If you pushed me, I'd say for North Kent, but mainly the Eastern part of North Kent.

Only one run, still got others to come ...

sad.png

Edited by Boar Wrinklestorm
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afcone Apprentice

afcone

Posted
  • Location: Gravesend, Kent
  • Location: Gravesend, Kent
Posted

Met Office has now come into line with the NMM model and predicts light snow for my area tomorrow morning. That's NMM, GFS and the MO saying we're on for snow.

I'm starting to get my hopes up...

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

I'm watching the updating GFS 12z run. You have to laugh really.rofl.gif No wonder people get over stressed! I'm just going to wait till next week to see what really happens! :)

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Dexter29 Newbie

Dexter29

Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex
Posted (edited)

ment to push south too so looks good

I'm confused, BBC latest TV forecast has changed again for later tonight into tomorrow morning.

They are forecasting snow for East Wales West Midlands pushing into Somerset and Dorset. Not just on graphics, Nick miller also spoke of it.

:-(

Edited by Dexter29
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chilly milly Experienced

chilly milly

Posted
  • Location: Stevenage - Herts (110m ASL)
  • Location: Stevenage - Herts (110m ASL)
Posted (edited)

I was wondering whether to go into further detail or not... tongue.png

No you'll spoil it, besides, you can't improve on perfection. blum.gif

Edited by Chilly Milly
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Met Office has now come into line with the NMM model and predicts light snow for my area tomorrow morning. That's NMM, GFS and the MO saying we're on for snow.

I'm starting to get my hopes up...

Met Office app on my 'phone goes for 40% chance of light sleet for 9am - I assume that's at sea-level for Rochester.

Edited by Boar Wrinklestorm
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Mrsf16 Apprentice

Mrsf16

Posted
  • Location: SW Peterborough (A1/A605 Jct)
  • Location: SW Peterborough (A1/A605 Jct)
Posted

Met office calling light snow now for 6am for Peterborough. Think I might set the alarm earlier than normal ;)

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

I'm watching the updating GFS 12z run. You have to laugh really.rofl.gif No wonder people get over stressed! I'm just going to wait till next week to see what really happens! smile.png

It is a corker Steve, that's for sure. A whole lot of the best action in FI though. acute.gif

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

12z looks like a downgrade to me.

Precipitation is now due to hit a little later - so, somewhere between 9am and noon,

At that time, dew points are "marginal" to "certainly not" at sea-level; get's better with height, of course,

Theta-W's are OK - I guess - this is the highlight (and it's reasonably good news)

But heights for Kent/E Sussex are right on the cusp of simply raining,

If you pushed me, I'd say for North Kent, but mainly the Eastern part of North Kent.

Only one run, still got others to come ...

sad.png

Downgrade in the shorter-term maybe, but upgrade or even normal service resumed (as per yesterday's 12z) in the slightly longer-term.

Patience is needed but I am personally looking forward to the weekend firstly, rather than worrying about the odd flake here and there beforehand.

Met Office has now come into line with the NMM model and predicts light snow for my area tomorrow morning. That's NMM, GFS and the MO saying we're on for snow.

I'm starting to get my hopes up...

You're certainly in the right part of the country, if away from the immediate coast. good.gif

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Here's my proper one.

Anywhere in central areas through to the East will have a good shot at lying snow due to lower 850's and low 2m temperatures bordering from -1/0C. There's a pocket of milder 850's between North Wales to Birmingham which needs to be looked at because it doesn't seem at the moment indicative of lying snow, perhaps wet snow/sleet. It all depends on whether the colder air can undercut faster, if it does then a nationwide snow event may be on the cards....depending on precipitation amounts of course.

post-15503-0-85569700-1354639475_thumb.j

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BB1979 Contributor

BB1979

Posted
  • Location: Bexley
  • Location: Bexley
Posted

Quick question ... perhaps more for the Model thread but they get stroppy in there if your not talking in what appears to be riddles ... what does FI mean? Seen it mentioned a lot. Im assuming something relating to fictional??

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kate1 Aficionado

kate1

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers and cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
Posted

It's Fantasy Island, Reevesie.

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Quick question ... perhaps more for the Model thread but they get stroppy in there if your not talking in what appears to be riddles ... what does FI mean? Seen it mentioned a lot. Im assuming something relating to fictional??

Fantasy Island, it's to which a point where the models begin to fall out of the reliable timeframe.

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