South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 1st 2012>

[Jo S]

I feel your pain. 22% for me!

Ouch that's even worse,im trying to be positive but mines going down hill like that as well

I have 3% lol,oh but its a chance never the less

Lol i dont feel so bad now,shall we bet,mine could be that when its 8pm lol

Now THAT is optimism. I like it.

Lol thats great it can only get better just

[Marie]

Now THAT is optimism. I like it.

I feel like crying inside lol but must stay optimistic

[Coast]

A little sneak preview of something from the Netweather NMM chart for 5.00am tomorrow morning, what do you reckon then? :winky:

[Jo S]

Think im going to get a caravan and follow the snow,anybody got thousands of pounds for petrol money so i can travel ,Oh and buy the way i dont have a driving licence

[Coast]

Think im going to get a caravan and follow the snow,anybody got thousands of pounds for petrol money so i can travel ,Oh and buy the way i dont have a driving licence

Here you go then, perfick!

[Jo S]

I feel like crying inside lol but must stay optimistic

Your looking rather ill there,it will be ok,stay strong and positive lol

[Suburban Streamer]

will be nice to see some flakes in the morning. nmm says yes(sleet), nae says no. i'm just about far enough north to warrant some hope!

thurs night/friday morning may provide a better chance, albeit, probably will be rain - snow - rain.

will be great to see my first flakes of the season - even if it's mixed with rain!

[Jo S]

Here you go then, perfick!

Oh yes that would suit me

A lovely wet splodge of wet sleet would do me for now,thats how desperate i am

[Suburban Streamer]

A little sneak preview of something from the Netweather NMM chart for 5.00am tomorrow morning, what do you reckon then?

hi coast

you know the WRF NMM 0.05°on meteociel - do u know if its the same res as the nmm on here?

[nanu]

oh come on ppl, be truthful to yourself, may get sleet at most. id rather hold off any cold and snow till xmas..

[Mr.Plow]

Got a feeling my part of Norfolk may just miss out, but good luck to those who manage to get some snow.

A small change here or there could swing things either way, so I will be lampost watching just in case!

Looking at the output I don't think it will be too long until the majority of us see some of the white stuff.

Winter 2012/2013 is shaping up nicely, it's very diiferent to last December,

However as usual in the UK we still need a little luck to hit the snow jackpot!

[Keraunic]

Well, Norwich looks good for snow tomorrow but typically, I'll be back in Ippy then. And that's not looking so good.

[Jo S]

Its raining here now,waiting for my blizzard,any moment now

[Keraunic]

My snow has now gone down to 60% for tom earlier it was 70% argggggg

I know THAT feeling only too well. Only in my case it's the THunder forecasts. Very frustrating when it's a big percent then it drops. And who can ever forget June 28th.

[Mrsf16]

Wooooohooooooo!! 70% in Peterborough tomorrow!!! GET IN!!!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

A little sneak preview of something from the Netweather NMM chart for 5.00am tomorrow morning, what do you reckon then?

BANK that particular chart.

I think this will be one of the issues as to who gets snow and who gets sleet, the timing of tonight's event will be key. Also, the more it peps up the better as it might modify the air the way we want it too.

Very much touch and go and IF (not always) the UKMO are correct, the best chance of anything lying will be at elevation. Personally, I think a few folk will see something if they're up at that hour but not much chance of a covering. Hopefully, I can be and will be proved wrong though.

Edited December 4, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[NO LONGER POSTING]

This quote has made my day:

Real risk of some snow from 3am onwards in Central England, spreading South even to the South coast #uksnow 1-3cm widely

[Mark Neal.]

This quote has made my day:

Real risk of some snow from 3am onwards in Central England, spreading South even to the South coast #uksnow 1-3cm widely

Who posted that quote and where from?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Who posted that quote and where from?

twitter TwitweatherUK

[Met4Cast]

The NMM does bring the snow risk into our region

So rain and sleet giving away to snowfall as the colder air digs in behind, I'd be surprised to see too much in the way of accumulating snowfall though away from higher ground

[Mark Neal.]

twitter TwitweatherUK

There not weather forecasters, they basically use sources and then post them on. Wouldn't listen to much, will always be more marginal near the coast. I think many will see some snow falling wether it settles/lasts long is another matter!

[Coast]

Of course, in reality it's down to one indicator now.......

[NO LONGER POSTING]

From model discussion:

a quick edit, I did post in the South West regional thread that whilst the 06 GFS output had quite a strong snow signal, the higher resolution NMM downplayed the snow signal, at least in south western parts, but still gives a moderate to strong snow signal for Scotland, Northern England, the Midlands, and the South East (away from the coast) for tomorrow morning

Good post Gavin, whilst the majority here are looking at the longer term outputs and trends, (and nothing wrong with that by the way) there are some very good synoptics in the shorter term to give many members a 'white surprise' over the next 24-60 hours.....GFS 06z shows a band of rain/sleet/snow moving steadily southwards across the nation giving a covering in many places.....A few charts to illustrate

First of all, T850 temps at 0600, one parameter conducive to snowfall in place, with a pool of colder T850's flooding southwards

t850 snapshot.pbx.png

Secondly dewpoints at 0600 & 1200z, a second tick in the box for snowfall parameters, again colder dew poimts flood southwards as shown by the snapshot charts

dewpoint snapshot.pbx.png dewpoint snapshot 1200.pbx.png

and also the progged preciptation & precipitation type charts for the same time periods

ppn snapshot.pbx.png ppn snapshot 1200.pbx.png

ppn type.pbx.png ppn type 1200.pbx.png

as you can see, snow potential for many parts over the next 24 or so hours, some areas could see substantial accumulations......and we haven't even touched on the potential for thursday night into friday!

Guess who is under that little blob of blue in the south before the dew points drop all over the south? ME

Edited December 4, 2012 by Surrey

[bobbydog]

simon "annoying voice" parkin just said on ITV weather - "maybe even a dusting over the downs by tomorrow morning"

[Coast]

simon "annoying voice" parkin just said on ITV weather - "maybe even a dusting over the downs by tomorrow morning"

Did he mean the North Downs?