South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 1st 2012>

[gottolovethisweather]

Quick question ... perhaps more for the Model thread but they get stroppy in there if your not talking in what appears to be riddles ... what does FI mean? Seen it mentioned a lot. Im assuming something relating to fictional??

FI = Fantasy Island. By that, a person means la-la land, the point at which the model suites vary in the analyses.

The precise timing of any FI is more often that not, gained from following the ensembles and where the model members begin to differ, i.e. scatter/spread starts to occur.

Never be afraid to ask questions, we are all here to learn.

Edited December 4, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Dexter29]

Quick question ... perhaps more for the Model thread but they get stroppy in there if your not talking in what appears to be riddles ... what does FI mean? Seen it mentioned a lot. Im assuming something relating to fictional??

Fantasy Island (not sure)

[Guest archiesmummy]

Quick question ... perhaps more for the Model thread but they get stroppy in there if your not talking in what appears to be riddles ... what does FI mean? Seen it mentioned a lot. Im assuming something relating to fictional??

Fantasy island ie long way off!

[BB1979]

Heros all of you. Was killing me

Thanks,

[Jo S]

*Oh god, what have I done now?"

Yep PARTYYYYYYYYYYY

[Dexter29]

Here's my proper one.

Anywhere in central areas through to the East will have a good shot at lying snow due to lower 850's and low 2m temperatures bordering from -1/0C. There's a pocket of milder 850's between North Wales to Birmingham which needs to be looked at because it doesn't seem at the moment indicative of lying snow, perhaps wet snow/sleet. It all depends on whether the colder air can undercut faster, if it does then a nationwide snow event may be on the cards....depending on precipitation amounts of course.

Great chart PerfectStorm. I'll take that :-)

Although I am slightly worried at the latest BBC TV forecast. They have snow not over our region but over East Wales, pushing towards Dorset before clearing away south. Why are they forecasting so different? :-(

[Methuselah]

Fantasy Island (not sure)

Quite right, Dexter...After an old TV programme, of the same name!

[Mrsf16]

Here's my proper one.

Anywhere in central areas through to the East will have a good shot at lying snow due to lower 850's and low 2m temperatures bordering from -1/0C. There's a pocket of milder 850's between North Wales to Birmingham which needs to be looked at because it doesn't seem at the moment indicative of lying snow, perhaps wet snow/sleet. It all depends on whether the colder air can undercut faster, if it does then a nationwide snow event may be on the cards....depending on precipitation amounts of course.

But, but, but.... I'm under the blue, not the red

Edited December 4, 2012 by Mrsf16

[Eskimo]

But, but, but.... I'm under the blue, not the red

The blue is the precipitation lol

[Steve C]

It is a corker Steve, that's for sure. A whole lot of the best action in FI though.

Yes, that's what I mean by waiting for next week. I think (almost) for sure though it's going to be a close call.

[gottolovethisweather]

I don't want to get in trouble with Paul, but the following paragraph, taken from the netweather guides proves exactly why the ensembles are so important.

Many leading agencies now believe that ensemble forecasting is the way forward for

anything beyond 5 days – and sometimes even shorter.

It is precisely for the above reason, why many folk wait patiently, in between runs, to see IF the individual models are being backed up by the actual ensembles.

[Floatylight]

Here's my proper one.

Anywhere in central areas through to the East will have a good shot at lying snow due to lower 850's and low 2m temperatures bordering from -1/0C. There's a pocket of milder 850's between North Wales to Birmingham which needs to be looked at because it doesn't seem at the moment indicative of lying snow, perhaps wet snow/sleet. It all depends on whether the colder air can undercut faster, if it does then a nationwide snow event may be on the cards....depending on precipitation amounts of course.

is the red blob on me or not i cant see:)(colchester)

[Coast]

is the red blob on me or not i cant see:)(colchester)

Yep, apparently Colchester could be snowed in and shut off until Monday morning.....

[Buzzit]

Quick question ... perhaps more for the Model thread but they get stroppy in there if your not talking in what appears to be riddles ... what does FI mean? Seen it mentioned a lot. Im assuming something relating to fictional??

I always have a quiet chuckle to myself when someone calls it Formula One It is definitely Fantasy Island - which is the perfect description with respect to the UK and thinking that what a model shows at +144 etc will be exactly what happens on a land mass as small as the UK with the Atlantic on one side and Europe on the other.... We still have difficulty forecasting to 3 days accurately of course, so if you do not want to hurt your head I recommend sticking to current to +96 as it is also easier to learn with. The ensembles for your location will give you an idea of the current trend (but trend is never locked in stone)

Edited December 4, 2012 by Buzzit

[gottolovethisweather]

Heros all of you. Was killing me

Thanks,

No problem, we are a clever bunch.

Would you kindly update your profile to show your location?

Just want to make sure that we know where you are, when you start reporting 20 feet of snow.

[VillagePlank]

I don't want to get in trouble with Paul, but the following paragraph, taken from the netweather guides proves exactly why the ensembles are so important.

Many leading agencies now believe that ensemble forecasting is the way forward for

anything beyond 5 days – and sometimes even shorter.

It is precisely for the above reason, why many folk wait patiently, in between runs, to see IF the individual models are being backed up by the actual ensembles.

Yep - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page__st__120#entry2405138

[Coast]

Yes, that's what I mean by waiting for next week. I think (almost) for sure though it's going to be a close call.

The encouraging thing it does look like though, is that conditions can be nearly right for some limited snow currently and that's enough for me to keep an eye out on charts and indicators 2/3 days hence.

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes, that's what I mean by waiting for next week. I think (almost) for sure though it's going to be a close call.

Indeed, I was agreeing with you.

We definitely need something from the North or East as I reckon it then takes away any frustration of it not being cold enough etc.

[Marie]

Can i ask a question please,where is Yamkin ? i havent seen any ramping from him in a long time?

[Jo S]

So now im confused is Essex getting a snow flake or am i going to do a snow dance around my white stilletoes lol,im now taking the pee

[Mrsf16]

The blue is the precipitation lol

[Jasmine]

How Long for London?

[Nights King]

Can i ask a question please,where is Yamkin ? i havent seen any ramping from him in a long time?

He is sitting tight in his underground bunker waiting for the 21st to pass before he comes back to us!

[Floatylight]

Yep, apparently Colchester could be snowed in and shut off until Monday morning.....

very good

[Reefseeker]

Can i ask a question please,where is Yamkin ? i havent seen any ramping from him in a long time?

I want to know that too, not the same without him.

As I was scraping the ice off the car windscreen this morning, I couldn't help think that this was the quickest mild blip in the history of the blippiest blips in blipsville, especially as we may get 5 flakes of snow tomorrow:)