Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[snow drift]

Now that would be an impressive block to our NE 1050!!!!!!!!

I hope when people wake up and see these charts they haven't just had a mouthful of coffee or there is going to be some coffee splattered computers!!

Edited December 5, 2012 by snow drift

[Jupiters Winter]

ECM STUNNER, GFS EPIC, UKMO >>> COME ON your safe now from your previous years easterly failures...

EDIT: -8c Uppers in Ireland have huge meaning. now that is a MEGABLOCK AT 1050MB . Watery eyes.

Edited December 5, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[Iceberg]

Fantastic runs this morning from gfs and ECM and coming inside the 144 range as well.

The most striking thing for me is that 48 hrs ago people were saying that it was almost over, the models kept putting everything back, but the last 2 runs have pretty much reverted back to what was being shown at 48 hrs ago, but kept it at that timeframe I.e the very nice blocks for 192 are now at t144.

An easterly starting at t144 looks very possible then snow in. Deep cold surface low, then breakdown lows into the sw that don't work, then rebuild of high pressure over Greenland, it would surprise me if the models went out to t500 to see a further movement to an easterly for Christmas.

[snowking]

Pretty good GFS Ensemble mean at +168 too

All in all, pretty happy after the 0z's

UKMO still the slight stinker, but backing that trigger SW west all the time

SK

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Massive upgrade with the over night runs, massive, it's nice to see gfs and ECM singing from the same hymn sheet, Iv been waking up night to check radar and been hanging out the window with a torch , only to watch it go east and I get 10 min of wet snow, not worth this crap nights sleep Iv had! Still happy though.

[Snowy Easterlies]

blimey how cold will it be at 168 and 192 on the ECM, Atlantic is held back too on this run, hopefully this trend continues

[Jonan92]

You will like this

[snow drift]

blimey how cold will it be at 168 and 192 on the ECM, Atlantic is held back too on this run, hopefully this trend continues

[Snowy Easterlies]

yeah uppers look cold enough for snow, and surely we would have ice days, anyway im not getting carried away yet

[TAFKAP]

My congratulations to the GFS precip type chart. Yesterday's 12z accurately progged snow IMBY when the big guns, ie the Met Office and most posters on this forum were forecasting sleet, well done GFS. Mind you I'll probably curse it soon enough.

[Met4Cast]

WAA being pumped up into Greenland, no sign of the PV like there was on the 12z. Retrogression time!

[Jupiters Winter]

T216 the Vortex awakes towards the west. Better than last run cant see it breaking the block... IF ANYTHING EAST MEETS WEST

EDIT: T240 the vortex splits and Mid Atlantic battle with cold winning either way. WHAT beautiful ECM and GFS I have witnessed in my time on the models.

EDIT 2: -12 uppers in central scotland. Surface Temps -5 day time. POTENTIAL ICE AGE on the cards (excuse ramp - deserves it today)

Edited December 5, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[Matty M]

T216 the Vortex awakes towards the west. Better than last run cant see it breaking the block... IF ANYTHING EAST MEETS WEST

Ye run to run the shift west is very good.

Now the GFS 0z really is the dream scenario! Incredible run.

[Snowy Easterlies]

amazing and the easterly still goes on even at 240, can this really happen ?

[stainesbloke]

Lovely big flakes coming down here

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Stunning now into the reliable time frame, 120z is the bench mark for things to begin evolving , I wonder if we will have supprises Thursday from this front further south??

[Met4Cast]

WAA being pumped up into Greenland, no sign of the PV like there was on the 12z. Retrogression time!

Bingo

Trough moving into EA and SE England bringing heavy snowfall!

[winterof79]

Oh heavens.....that is a thing of beauty

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=1&archive=0

And i know its FI but look at the rest of the run(s) its all coming together boys and girls

[cooling climate]

Excellent runs this morning I said yesterday it looked like the easterly was

nailed for the 6-8 day timeframe and that has been reinforced this morning.

It is also now looking likely that apart from being very cold we will see a

lot of snow showers in the flow.

Snow still coming down outside, winter is definitely here.

[danm]

Off topic but it's snowing currently in London. Unexpected!

[Ian Brown]

ECM STUNNER, GFS EPIC, UKMO >>> COME ON your safe now from your previous years easterly failures...

EDIT: -8c Uppers in Ireland have huge meaning. now that is a MEGABLOCK AT 1050MB . Watery eyes.

Well JW, the train isn't coming until you can see the train.

I was looking at the GFS this morning and my only slight criticism was that I would have preferred to see the core of heights a little further North to allow for greater instability underneath the block for larger portions of the UK - then the ECM delivers exactly that ! Not sure where the UKMO is going with it's shortwave at T144 but I will put that on one side for now.

The key developments to form the upper High to the NE of the UK are ALMOST in the reliable timeframe, so yes a step forward this morning. However, it has all gone wrong for easterlies before with cross model agreement at T96-120 so caution advised.

[karlos1983]

amazing and the easterly still goes on even at 240, can this really happen ?

Why not? It's only 4 days from when it gets going, quite feasible if you ask me, it's massive!!

[snow drift]

The caution has to be that this needs to be resolved. All though ukmo has moved more to ECM than the other way round.

[TAFKAP]

amazing and the easterly still goes on even at 240, can this really happen ?

Of course it can happen, the models may produce some unlikely solutions but when functioning correctly the solutions they produce should in a broad sense be plausible. People always seem to forget that weather is a chaotic system and must be modelled as such. In short, chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, an effect which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general (hence why we have perturbations in the model output, ie slightly different starting points). So the deterministically chaotic outcome which members are currently wetting themselves in excitement about is indeed possible.

If you remember this premise model watching will be much less stressful.

Edited December 5, 2012 by jbuffett1980

[Penicuikblizzard]

That's a chart for next Sat details will change, we have been here so many times, models will probably back off quite a bit near the time