Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[iowpompeylee]

Would this set up not be the very very cold/dry set up?

[PolarWarsaw]

I think we can safely say that this run WONT happen, at all-

But that's not to say SOME of the synoptics wont remain SIMILAR.

That's what we need to happen-

I still remain to get excited- I think we can take tonights 12zECM out of the general 'model consistency' heading toward this potential event.

It's just TOO out there.

Sadly I may add before I'm shotdown.

[Frosty.]

OMG 12 pages filled up since I last looked 2 hours ago

WOW the Ecm 12z is E P I C, can we now start believing in narnia landscapes next week?

You know there's a freeze on the way when terry.. I mean ib goes into rampage mode.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?05-0

BETTER THAN 1987.

Widepspread snow for the UK- mostly heavy esp in the E-

uppers-

http://www.meteociel...F0-240.GIF?05-0

-14c in EA

S

Steve

Now this is utter perfection.....it can't get better.......................YES IT CAN WHEN ITS T24 !!!! I experienced Jan 87 folks and this chart usurps that and I tell you Jan 1987 was unbelievable.

Look at this

Yummy.....right now lets get sensible here...its too good isn't it?

BFTP

[Mark Bayley]

As mentiond a stunning ECM. Towards the end of the run the PV has transfered from the Candian side and into Siberia so if the run extended i bet we would see heights retrogressing towards Greenland. As GP touted earlier this is supported by the ensemble means from the GFS and ECM (the 0z)

Also shown on the NAEFS as well

The MJO is projected to move into phase one, which the GFS has indicated for some time. This gives us the following compostite, adding further support to eventual height rises over Greenland.

Whatever happens i would suggest we are in for one long cold spell!!

Edited December 5, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[Duane S.]

Unfortunately I don't want to sound like a 'Glass half empty man' but the chances of that coming off or even remotely close to it are pretty minimal - an absolutely incredible run, the best I have seen in the medium term and as been mentioned probably snowier than 1987 and more widespread. Saying that though we certainly overall have seen some pretty good op runs now for the last day so there's a chance we could see a good easterly!

I'm one of the more 'glass-half-full' but you are right to point out to those newer to this that nothing is 'nailed on' yet and won't be for a while yet (longwave pattern, I'm not even thinking about the details).

We've just had a dose of what is probably just about the best case scenario from the ECM and we have to expect relative downgrades (in terms of less good charts and indeed some backing off a half-decent Easterly altogether) over the next few days. This is not the same as watching a Greenland High setting up on the charts, they are generally a more straight forward evolution to cold, a proper easterly is NEVER straightforward by its very nature.

That said, for us not to get at least a good continental feed for a few days from mid next week is going to be unlikely and somewhat gutting. It's the details that are going to make ALL the difference! Hang on tight, the rollercoaster hasn't even started yet...

[Fred Sykes]

Steve

Now this is utter perfection.....it can't get better.......................YES IT CAN WHEN ITS T24 !!!! I experienced Jan 87 folks and this chart usurps that and I tell you Jan 1987 was unbelievable.

Look at this

Yummy.....right now lets get sensible here...its too good isn't it?

BFTP

I don't know how this Country would cope if that were to come off! I wouldn't mind finding out though!! LOL

[Stuie]

I have always wanted snow as per probably 90% of posters recently. If this does come off it could be a case of "be careful what you wish for". Imagine the total meltdown of the country, today was a mess here in north Essex with 3cms but regardless of any snow, being extremely bitter would affect members of the elderly community who in this scenario, would be in trouble.

[chris55]

There are not enough superlatives to describe the ECM 12z tonight, if it's cold and snow you like!!!!!!!!!!

I think the 240 chart is the best I have ever seen from the ECM. GFS does throw these out in FI every now and again but it's a very rare beast from ECM.

But as ever it's only one Deterministic run, and although the ensembles have been excellent of late at range it's open to change.

But this is the MO thread so lets enjoy, and one day a chart like this will verify, so who's to say the ECM hasn't got it spot on!

[bobbydog]

all this talk of "perfection" "as good as it gets" along with "expect downgrades" "we know it won't happen" etc. etc. etc.

what if?...... it upgrades............

[ronan]

I think we can safely say that this run WONT happen, at all-

But that's not to say SOME of the synoptics wont remain SIMILAR.

That's what we need to happen-

I still remain to get excited- I think we can take tonights 12zECM out of the general 'model consistency' heading toward this potential event.

It's just TOO out there.

Sadly I may add before I'm shotdown.

You being serious!! I think you will find that right now it's over 900 people that's going to shoot you down! How can you make a statement like that without backing it up? I'm no expert but I know that something is coming but stop speculating on future runs and enjoy what is actually infront of you at the minute! If we get to the weekend and this is still showing then its nailed!! The models are amazing at the minute!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Are we all in agreement that the Synoptics shown now, in the models, in the strat conditions, and strat forecasts, the other teleconnections and background signals are as good as 2010 dare I say it even better. I honestly never thought that was possible but It is, and it's showing its hand now, the only other thing we need is to get this to t48 .

[Frosty.]

Steve

Now this is utter perfection.....it can't get better.......................YES IT CAN WHEN ITS T24 !!!! I experienced Jan 87 folks and this chart usurps that and I tell you Jan 1987 was unbelievable.

Look at this

Yummy.....right now lets get sensible here...its too good isn't it?

BFTP

That is the BEST chart for cold and snow potential that I have ever seen since I started model watching on here in 2005, it's sheer perfection and beautiful but also brutal and unforgiving, BRING IT ON

[chionomaniac]

Go on, admit it.

How many of us have gone back and looked at that run again and again and again.....

[Jan_Bromley]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

"@gas82coops: @fergieweather i nearly droped my coffee when i seen the ECM tonight...looks cold" yes: good agreement now on this outcome

Just found this post on twitter. Seems UKMO agree?

Jan

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Steve

Now this is utter perfection.....it can't get better.......................YES IT CAN WHEN ITS T24 !!!! I experienced Jan 87 folks and this chart usurps that and I tell you Jan 1987 was unbelievable.

Look at this

Yummy.....right now lets get sensible here...its too good isn't it?

BFTP

Why would it be better, if it were to come off, than Jan '87 if the uppers were around 5C colder back then?

[bradymk]

and to throw netweathers servers into lockdown, imagine if the ECM is a mild outlier......

[weather_it_will]

all this talk of "perfection" "as good as it gets" along with "expect downgrades" "we know it won't happen" etc. etc. etc.

what if?...... it upgrades............

God himself must be a member on this forum to issue a statement that the ECM run will never happen.

I am sure we could get much colder runs.

[January Snowstorm]

Fair to say the ECM run this evening has been coming for a while.

GP has been adament all along that this Winter would be memorable and that Dec/Jan would be well below average

We need about 2 more days of runs to be sure what's coming though and as others have said we have been bitten many times before.

Can it, will it, for now I doubt it!

[Met4Cast]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

"@gas82coops: @fergieweather i nearly droped my coffee when i seen the ECM tonight...looks cold" yes: good agreement now on this outcome

Just found this post on twitter. Seems UKMO agree?

Jan

I highly doubt they agree things will be as severe as the ECM OP. Ian has posted on here talking about how their MOGREPS model is starting to firm up on the Easterly solution but continued to stress uncertainty

[Jan_Bromley]

OK Dan, thanks

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

WOW WOW WOW, I remember January 1987 very very well, if those charts come off we will all have a covering, with some lovely drifts. Looking forward to the Beast, will be interesting to see how it does compare with 1987, as in Eastern England, the snow started melting after 3 days as the wind shifted to the south east and introduced milder continental air.

This Easterly, this early in the season must be very rare, do we have any info on when we had comparative charts in DECEMBER?

What will the pub run give us when it starts churning out?

Finally, GP seems to have been right on the money throughout.

[dragan]

Ecm 12z is incredible!! People mentioning 2010, would this setup not be colder than 2010 (December) as these synoptics are two weeks further on into winter and darkness? My part of the world in 2010 the cold started Novemeber 27th!

[PolarWarsaw]

You being serious!! I think you will find that right now it's over 900 people that's going to shoot you down! How can you make a statement like that without backing it up? I'm no expert but I know that something is coming but stop speculating on future runs and enjoy what is actually infront of you at the minute! If we get to the weekend and this is still showing then its nailed!! The models are amazing at the minute!

Im just being realistic - this was the best run many members have EVER seen.

Think of how many runs we see that dont come to fruition at t240-

I'm just saying, stranger things have happened than an easterly downgrade at t144.

[snowblues]

The word Trend has been used alot this past months but that has been the biggest trend for cold in N/W History by the ecm

Edited December 5, 2012 by snowblues