Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[lorenzo]

EARTH TO STEVE - ARE YOU STILL HERE...???

[I remember Atlantic 252]

192 FI remember folks

[Harsh Climate]

Sorry can I just ask a daft question..if these charts verify are we looking at nationwide potential snowfest?

East of the pennines would get battered, even to the west there would be a couple of inches in places

[TEITS]

The crazy thing about the ECM +168/+192 charts is whilst we were experiencing heavy snowfalls and very cold temps the outlook would be turning colder!!

You cannot get a more extreme E,ly synoptically speaking that what the 12Z ECM is showing.

Edited December 5, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[I Cumbria Marra I]

even on the west coast of the uk? doubt it

[bluearmy]

the tough part of the run is within a timescale that ecm generally doesnt get wrong. its getting harder to work out where this could go wrong although we have, on occasion, grabbed defeat from the jaws in the past. quite honestly, the only thing i can see being an issue is the behaviour of the trough which could mean we end up without the flow being squeezed to generate precip and instability. infact. there is a small chance that the trough could be too close aswell which would generate snow anyway.

[nick sussex]

OMG that ECM 192hrs is sensational.

A textbook set up,wow shame its at 192hrs and not 72hrs.

[kold weather]

192 FI remember folks

Very much so, you are very right...120hrs though when the fun really starts is edging into reliable territory. Not quite there, but getting there steadily.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I suggest someone saves that ECM 192 hrs chart as you don't get much better than that

[london-snow]

Quick send the ambulance to Steve murr's house i think he has just gone in to cardiac arrest !!!

[Snowy Liverpool]

East of the pennines would get battered, even to the west there would be a couple of inches in places

I'm moving back to Liverpool from Leeds on Sunday, I think I'm going to cry.

[tonbridgemole]

Can you imagine and if? 1987 comes to mind

[surfersparks]

Not sure if this post is relevant (or allowed in here)but does this chart for next Tuesday mean bitter cold or Massive snow event...sorry not trained in these matters but love to read all the posts in here. My motive for asking is because I have to drive from east yorkshire yo sheffield and back on Tues...Madness concert ;-)

[IDO]

I suggest someone saves that ECM 192 hrs chart as you don't get much better than that

You sure:

[bradymk]

216 even colder, wow! Being in Pembrokeshire West Wales, an easterly brings us very cold but usually dry weather so it is not my favourite cold weather evolution however these charts are IMMENSE, you know its a great run when you save the images to your computer

[Harsh Climate]

the tough part of the run is within a timescale that ecm generally doesnt get wrong. its getting harder to work out where this could go wrong although we have, on occasion, grabbed defeat from the jaws in the past. quite honestly, the only thing i can see being an issue is the behaviour of the trough which could mean we end up without the flow being squeezed to generate precip and instability. infact. there is a small chance that the trough could be too close aswell which would generate snow anyway.

I wouldn't be so sure of that, we still have a bit to go before we can wax the sledges.

[kold weather]

Wow just obscene 216hrs chart...

Surely going to be on the colder end of the ensembles, that is just unreal!!

Large wedge heading our way, winds turning E/ESE, thats going to be easily sub-zero by that point!

[SMU]

I see everyones 192 chart & raise you a 216..

Its on gone pete tong.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120512/ECH1-216.GIF?05-0

For greece!!!!

-12s in to the UK

S

[Weathizard]

The ECM ens have been pointing towards a run like this for a few days now. Its 192 out but if things develop like they do at 120-144 we'll be in the money no matter what, the block is far to strong for the Atlantic

[Harsh Climate]

I'm moving back to Liverpool from Leeds on Sunday, I think I'm going to cry.

If that chart came off I think you should cancel that until further notice or least stay at a friends lol.

[london-snow]

Somebody Pinch Me....

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Holy moly

[weather_it_will]

That 192 chart!! WOW

Yeh, but not as good as the 216

[Matty M]

WOW, I think it's time for the 'No comment' ticker to come on when you view the 216hr chart.

[January Snowstorm]

It gets better lol

At 216hrs JS is sending flares into the sky looking to be dug out of 10 foot drifts.

The ECM wont happen, if it the UK / Ireland and most of Europe would close down!!