Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[Met4Cast]

I'm looking forward to the ECM Ensembles.

If it's not a massive cold outlier I'll be shocked! That's about as extreme as you can get

[Harsh Climate]

I wonder if the Met will come off the fence this evening?

Not a chance.

To be honest though before we can give this run any credibility we must at least see where it's sits in the De Bilt esembles, could be an outliar for all we know lol

[Jezzer]

942 members reading this topic now, sums up some extraordinary charts!

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

I wonder if the Met will come off the fence this evening?

Lol they got to after this :-D

[PolarWarsaw]

If this could be correlated into human terms.

The 12z ECM is like a night's free access to Ashley Roberts in a hotel room.

[mcweather]

The brilliant thing about this run is not just the synoptics produced but also that the process to get us there starts in the reliable time frame when it comes to the ECM.

[alan776600]

Greetings from Asia!!

Hi there, Ive been watching all your comments for the past couple of years and pretty much stayed as a viewer, I dont study the pictures often as I go by what you guys say. Im wondering about this picture and how this is like a major snow event for uk, I dont seem to get it lol Many thanks

[chionomaniac]

Haha I bet that 12z run beats even what you thought might have been the best case situation from say 2 weeks ago.

In all honesty, that is some nice eye candy but there is still time for things to shift...but for now...WHAT A RUN!!

Yes I think that a run like this is the theoretical perfect run that Crewe cold has been searching for. I think that if the real easterly is half as good as the one forecast here, no-one will be disappointed

[Buriedundersnow]

now we have all three models in agreement can someone say if they know which model is better at showing what might happen when they have all got there ideas sorted out and know the pattern

[Jason M]

In its own way that ECM run would be more remarkable than jan 87. To get uppers like that so early in winter would be astonishing.

Jason

[Cloud 10]

I wonder if the Met will come off the fence this evening?

Tension rising in the met-office.

[snowice]

wow 922 users ! you know something big is comming?

Edited December 5, 2012 by snowice

[phil nw.]

That`s one incredible ECM run for cold and snow.It will be interesting to see the mean charts and ensembles later.

There`s little doubt that with all the operational runs showing the block establishing across to our north by day5 that this pattern change is coming.

It`s just down to how the block sets up and details wrt any little disturbances in the flow that would bring snow to many areas of the UK.

Let`s not forget we are already in a cold spell and some have had snow already, and with chances of some snow,particularly in Scotland and over high ground further south in the next 2 days.

To see this even colder set up modelled for next week is really an added bonus for cold lovers.

[Backtrack]

Yes I think that a run like this is the theoretical perfect run that Crewe cold has been searching for. I think that if the real easterly is half as good as the one forecast here, no-one will be disappointed

I think something along these lines would suffice, Chiono.

[MKN]

I wonder if the Met will come off the fence this evening?

First mention won't be till Friday night with more detail in the week ahead forecast Sunday. Any easterly is yet to be guarenteed imo

[I remember Atlantic 252]

942 members reading this topic now, sums up some extraordinary charts!

942 users but around 380 members, snowfest for all between wed 12th to Sat 15th, 00Z of course will downgrade, but chances gone up now of snow for all next week

[Bonjangle]

wow 922 users ! you know something big is comming?

949 and Getting bigger , server breakdown very soon .

[Jason M]

No need for met office to come of the fence. There will be plenty to occupy them over the next 36 hours I suspect. The near term could throw some surprises up

[weatherguy]

Analysing that run is pointless when it can be summed up in 3 letters...

wow.

[phil nw.]

WOW...

240hrs is actually even better than 216hrs...

Jeez that is just otherworldly.

Honestly every other run is a downgrade compared to that, we'll probably not see a better model run all winter...unless this winter turns into a 62-63/47 type winter...

You can imagine what could follow Kold.The vortex is moving across to Siberia on this run-Greenland rebuild of heights/Scandi/Siberian trough and another injection of bitter cold.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well it's fair to say that the signs are there for an amazing cold and snowy easterly to develop. It's good to think that it actually isn't without support either , we may be heading for a historic event if these begin to verify, certainly haven't seen charts like that before, not with such good background signals and support from other models.

We no it has gone wrong before , we have watched it before our eyes disappear , but I have a serious gut feeling that this time will be different.

By the way il ask again, is there anything to suggest a more widespread snow event tomorrow in England ? Can the hills further south expect some snow ? The uppers look -3/-4 , the ground temps are cold , and the due points low. Any thoughts?

[Essex Boy]

I'm in awe of these charts. Yes the eye candy is pure FI, but it's virtually beasterly perfection. FI aside, I'm happy with the 144h

[Jezzer]

942 users but around 380 members, snowfest for all between wed 12th to Sat 15th, 00Z of course will downgrade, but chances gone up now of snow for all next week

yep, apologies. Getting far too excited! Just been reading this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_January_1881

[SMU]

Guys + Girls- lets just be cautious here & wait for the 12s tomorrow when hopefully the UKMo will be on board at 96 & 120.-

If everything is still as planned then we can start to complete our usual checks Like:

All outside lamp bulbs working,

Stocks of Salt,

Anti freeze

Etc etc

THose seasoned campaigners have all been burnt before from this- I recall 4/5 years ago the GFS went for Beasterly after Beasterly in the 192-240 range, run after run of charts better than tonights ECM-

This was before meteociel days, we used to use the ECMWF link & WZ.-

The ECM came on board at 168 - the GEM was the same as the GFS & easterlies with sub -16c's at 156-168 adonned the forum. meltdown ensued.

It all disapeared overnight.

Also if we go back 7 years we had a smilar series of events from the GFS & got burnt from that- here was one of the runs- which ive got saved-

http://www.jp2webdes...s5/Rtavn961.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1201.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1681.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1801.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn1921.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2161.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2401.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2521.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2641.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2761.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn2881.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3001.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3241.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3481.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3721.gif

http://www.jp2webdes...5/Rtavn3841.gif

Yes thats 7 years saved that run!!!!!!!!!

Note at the 384 hour mark it looks like the overnight GFS00!

So we have been burnt before- we need another day & full model agreement at 96 to feel safe.

Lastly *IF* something like the ECM arrived then totals of +50cms in the east like 1987 would be challenged-

S

Edited December 5, 2012 by Steve Murr

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Fantastic run. This has to be the most rising excitement I have seen since joining earlier this year. Could anyone give me the nearest historic example of these charts at 0 hrs in Mid December?