Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[southbank]

It's the infamous , famous Scandinavia sausage shape high !!! If only it would verfy

[Harsh Climate]

240 is going to be a beeeeast!

[kold weather]

WOW...

240hrs is actually even better than 216hrs...

Jeez that is just otherworldly.

Honestly every other run is a downgrade compared to that, we'll probably not see a better model run all winter...unless this winter turns into a 62-63/47 type winter...

[nick sussex]

For the key timeframe upstream in the USA NOAA have gone with a combo of the GEFS/ECM ensemble means:

A 00Z/05 GFS/ECMWF BLEND PROVIDES A REASONABLE ACCOUNTING FOR THE

LATEST CLUSTERING FOR DAYS 3 AND 4. THE GFS/ECMWF WEIGHTING WAS

REDUCED BY DAY 5, WHEN THOSE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO STRAY FROM

ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS FOR THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT

LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE REMAINDER OF THE MANUAL FORECAST

WAS BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE GEFS AND ECENS MEANS.

And this was nice to see:

WHILE THE 12Z/05 GUIDANCE DID NOT CLEAR UP ALL THE FUNDAMENTAL

MEDIUM RANGE ISSUES (E.G. THE SLOW UKMET WAVE OVER THE EAST DAY

6), A CONSIDERABLE CHUNK OF THE SOLUTIONS WERE WELL CORRELATED

WITH THE PRELIMINARY/UPDATE PACKAGES. THE GEM GLOBAL AND GEFS MEAN

WERE BOTH WITHIN A REASONABLE MARGIN OF ERROR ACROSS THE NATION

WITH THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. AS SUCH, MADE ONLY COSMETIC

CHANGES TO THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

[Jason H]

Certainly a brisk wind from the East. Might have to put my jacket on if that come to fruition. As someone mentioned earlier, the odd run like this has been appearing in the ensembles so it's no surprise one has become the OP. The 216 chart is properly scary. Not too sure many people would really want that! I would have thought this would be an outlier, but just shows what the current synoptics COULD deliver.

[Hammer]

Holy smokes 240h on the ECM is remarkable. Earlier pretty special as well.

[snowice]

I see everyones 192 chart & raise you a 216..

Its on gone pete tong.

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?05-0

For greece!!!!

-12s in to the UK

S

Hi Steve

Whats the percentage of this ecm run pulling it off 85% would you say!

Edited December 5, 2012 by snowice

[Southender]

WOW:

Jesus H Christ.

If this isn't a big cold outlier I am off to B&Q for a snow shovel and a truck load of salt.

[kold weather]

I think it is a complete let down, JS!!

Haha I bet that 12z run beats even what you thought might have been the best case situation from say 2 weeks ago.

In all honesty, that is some nice eye candy but there is still time for things to shift...but for now...WHAT A RUN!!

[Weathizard]

Those charts are a true thing of beauty BUT, and sorry to be realistic but it won't happen like that will it? If it does it would be incredible but I can't see it! Within 144 I'm very happy though

[on the coast]

http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?05-0

BETTER THAN 1987.

Widepspread snow for the UK- mostly heavy esp in the E-

uppers-

http://www.meteociel...F0-240.GIF?05-0

-14c in EA

S

Cant think of a better run up in all the years I have been watching these charts. Stunning stuff. I know it always downgrades nearer the time but still what a stunning run.

[mcweather]

Watch the track of the low coming up from biscay on ecm 240

JAN1881 anyone!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited December 5, 2012 by mcweather

[Jupiters Winter]

MY BIRTHDAY PRESENT from the beasterly ------ SOME One POKE me ...

WOW !!

If the world ends on Dec 21st 2012 I will die a Happy man if this comes off

ECM 12z 05/12/12 the best run I have ever seen in my 24 months of model watching !!!

[PolarWarsaw]

Does the 12z ECM show any chilly synoptics by any chance?

Edited December 5, 2012 by PolarWarsaw

[seabreeze86]

Steve have you broke into the ECM center and fiddled with the model because this run is insane.

Before anyone says its Fantasy Land and it wont come off at the minute i dont care it was pure brilliance to see it unfold the perfect run.

COME ON

[Methuselah]

Watch the track of the low coming up from biscay on ecm 240

JAN1881 anyone!!!!!!!!!!!

Eh? Even I can't remember that far back!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ecm brings tears to my eyes

please god let ukmo look something like this in the morning.

[Wilxy]

That ECM run is teasing us it won't look like that on the 00z.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Steve have you broke into the ECM center and fiddled with the model because this run is insane.

Before anyone says its Fantasy Land and it wont come off at the minute i dont care it was pure brilliance to see it unfold the perfect run.

COME ON

I heard he stuck his USB stick in the server....his USB stick with the greatest winter synoptics of the 1800's on it.

[Backtrack]

ECM is a mild outlier. Marginality is an issue I fear.

[SMU]

Hi Steve

Whats the percentage of this ecm run pulling it off 85% would you say!

75% on the longwave pattern- 25% UKMO.

20% finer detail past 168.

S

[mountain shadow]

I wonder if the Met will come off the fence this evening?

[ITSY]

Best. Run. Ever.

I ask someone to beat it! I'm sure it can't be done!

It won't happen like that (necessarily) but what a picture! If these sorts of runs are being progged in a couple days' time and the SW does indeed continue to sink SE, then I will be absolutely chuffed!. Take note UKMO and 18Z's...more please!.

[karlos1983]

Did this just happen, I would be 4 weeks without smoking, but if that verifies I'm having a cigar!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

[latitude]

Even Epic !!!

I'm loving where i live right now

At last a chart that shows the easterly everyone been talking about. Only one direction from that output!!