Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012

[Zenarcher]

ECM today at 144 hours is great and much better than yesterdays,

Yesterday for the 11th,

Today's for the 11th,

Also looking at the Northern Hemisphere charts today the PV has been pushed back further West and made weaker as well.

[Matty M]

Not as good at 144hrs

We need that high pressure further North for convection to kick off

JS that is the 144hr chart for next Tuesday, it is excellant, it's not just going to happen over night, i expect the rest of the charts will show the cold moving southwest and LPs developing to our southwest.

[kold weather]

uppers -7/-8 and thicknesses approx 520dam into eastern uk at day 6. that'll do off an easterly flow

Yep thats a cold feed, though obviously the SST's will probably raise temps a little higher than you might expect off such a cold feed. Even so, your looking at generally 1-2C for most as a max.

Good upto 144hrs!

[January Snowstorm]

Excellent at 168hrs though

Yep, its all aboard!!

[ITSY]

How close will that patch of Siberian -20's get to us on this run?

haha 'not very' is the answer.

[london-snow]

You Beauty BEAST !!!

[Continental Climate]

This is just getting crazy now http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120512/ECH1-168.GIF!! A near perfect easterly as rare as hens teeth

[PolarWarsaw]

This all seems to smooth to be true-

When are we going to see the collapse and disaster?

Makes it all the harder if you see some consistency in the models beforehand.

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM looks like the best of the lot, though all three are good runs tonight.

[kold weather]

If anyone even had a feeling the 144hrs was not good, then the 168hrs MUST get nearly everyones approval!

Superb chart, a nice little disturbance forming, we've seen such system develop into really good snowfalls, remember early December where many southern areas got a good fall, that came from just such a disturbance as the one shown on the 168hrs chart.

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is a fine chart...

[ITSY]

That'll do boy that'll do it!!

If things backtrack to the Atlantic now it will be uber depressing. BUT IT COULD HAPPEN, so don't count your chickens just yet (although if this comes off i'd advice bringing them inside pronto!!!)

haha you have got to be kidding me! 192:

If charts like these verify we will be talking about this month for some time!

Edited December 5, 2012 by ITSY

[london-snow]

This all seems to smooth to be true-

When are we going to see the collapse and disaster?

Makes it all the harder if you see some consistency in the models beforehand.

Why dont you try and be positive for once in your life these are truly epic charts we see in front of us...

[snowking]

JMA still slight further east with the pattern but not too shabby:

Reasonable chance of one or two snow flurries

SK

[Matty M]

YES Please!!!!!!!!!! Mega run, and the bonus of the uppers below -8c meaning high chance of lake effect convection in the Irish sea!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120512/ECM1-168.GIF

[sn0wman]

ECM looks like the best of the lot, though all three are good runs tonight.

I know it will change a bit, but do you think there's any snow potential on this chart for us in Scotland?

[bradymk]

A great 168 chart, the 6 to 7pm good feeling is taking over

[Southender]

This is a fine chart...

Greetings from Asia!!

[nick sussex]

Nice ECM , outbreaks of snow moving west at 168hrs!

Oh well another run with no shortwave drama. We just need the UKMO to develop that upstream low similarly to the ECM/GFS tomorrow.

[london-snow]

Even Epic !!!

I'm loving where i live right now

Edited December 5, 2012 by london-snow

[Dave Kightley]

WOWOWOW

[Ice BIast]

The ECM JMA combo is EPIC.

ECM:

JMA:

[bluearmy]

dont let steve see that the road to the urals is open again. it'll be 1991/1987/1963/1947 all over again !!!

[Wilxy]

Thats a serious looking block, all day its been hard not to get excited but that just to good.

[January Snowstorm]

192hrs is better than 2010 !!

Perfection