South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 4th 2012>

[Ruthie]

Going by the weather graphics on BBC (Dont they never are right) I am at 3 degrees atm..Hang? Unless freezing point has risen by 3 degrees or someone outside has opened a MASSIVE freezer something is wrong lol!

Just by any chance anybody else got frost on the roofs or grass?

Here in the brentford massive we've got frost on the car and the grass is hard. I know as I took recycling to the car and the boot was a bit froze, and I put some scraps out for Foxie and didn't sink into the doodah pile he usually leaves behind. We've also got a bit of mist here in the field...

[Lt. Dan]

Sleet & snow heading into the midlands on radar, temp and dewpoint heading in the right direction. hmmm maybe :-)

Interesting read here as well http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-11/25/how-to-forecast-snow

[Corrigan87]

I'm feeling very jealous. Here in West Sussex there isn't a sniff of sleet or snow in the forecast. It is a chilly 0.1 at the mo though with clear skies.

Felt very hard done by also when at 1C on Sunday night it was pure rain grr!

Love winter but the will it/won't it sure is stressful!! :-)

[Jayces]

Snow is cool.

Can't believe Yamkin isn't here

[lottiekent]

Sooo...my weather station is ramping:

Though what we're looking at here is put into context when receiving a text from my brother in law today - he lives in Stockholm - where they had a warm day at -7c!

Edit: forgot to mention DP is -1c and temp down from the pic to 1.6c

Edited December 4, 2012 by lottiekent

[HammerJack]

Should be fairly well placed for this one, so might get up to watch the cricket and the weather

That's my plan Stu

[Reefseeker]

Ian Fergusson on the model discussion thread gave some interesting possibilities for the morning:)

[HammerJack]

Snow is cool.

Can't believe Yamkin isn't here

Where is he. I love his ramping!

[Hughsey]

Slowly getting colder here, conditions improving, although temps will inevitably rise once the precipitation arrives in the morning.

Current Temp: 1.2°C

High Temp Today:5.6°C at 11:00am

Low Temp Today:1.2°C at 10:14pm

Dew Point: -1.0°C

Precipitation off the Irish coast slowly dying, chances of reaching this far east do seem slim, may just survive though.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Hughsey

[Met4Cast]

Reports of sleet in Cornwall from a friend, if they can see sleet then we sure as hell should be able to see some snow!

[Mrsf16]

Dear snow Gods,

This year, please don't do that annoying thing of giving the SE'ers a dumping whilst you tease the EA'ers with something that looks like someone dropped a bag of icing sugar. Being a snow lover is hard enough without having to read about people getting inches and inches and all you can get excited about is frost.

So please, remember us in the East, we like the white stuff too x

[Jason T]

Evening all. Here we go First snow event for the Winter 2012/13 and hopefully plenty more. Anyway those new to thread Welcome and those not Hello.

Please feel free to view these links and save them to your favs.

http://booty.org.uk/...ate/2000_on.htm

http://www.metbrief.com/charts.html

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/140

Brilliant links here with loads and loads of info. Anyway of to bed up early for work, Anything more than 2 cm im staying home.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Change of plan..Look west

[pinball wizard]

Netweather Extra radar is now showing sleetiness beginning to appear around The Wash - this is a good sign, fingers crossed guys I smell a surprise on the way

[Me & angel fiance]

Help 😱 they turn our lamp posts off at night round here !

I was saying the same thing the other day I think its very inconsiderate of them lol. Going to make it really hard to this year. Where about in Stevenage are you?

[Great Plum]

Ooh, my met office iPhone app says light snow shower at 9am tomorrow!

[Jason T]

I was saying the same thing the other day I think its very inconsiderate of them lol. Going to make it really hard to this year. Where about in Stevenage are you?

Tell me about it,

[Met4Cast]

Just compared the current radar to both NMM and NAE

Both forecast models are off with the precipitation, NAE is a little closer but not by much. This pretty much places us into the unknown, nowcasting it is!

[chilly milly]

I was saying the same thing the other day I think its very inconsiderate of them lol. Going to make it really hard to this year. Where about in Stevenage are you?

The lights will be on in Gunnels Wood Road if you want to plan a meet-up. Bring a flask.

[Ice Day]

Ruddy hell, I pop off the the model forum for 20 mins and we're on page 4.......and we haven't had any snow yet! Much excitement from the pub run tonight, looking very interesting to say the least. And the chance of a dusting tonight as well, awesome start to winter 2012.

[HammerJack]

Com'on let it snowwwwwwðŸ™â›„⛄⛄⛄

[Me & angel fiance]

The lights will be on in Gunnels Wood Road if you want to plan a meet-up. Bring a flask.

can just imagine 3 of us camping out on the side of gunnels wood with our flasks! tempting though

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi all.

I hope everyone is cheery in here. I have attempted an analysis over the CSE & SW thread which you are welcome to view but I will repeat the general theme in here with slight adjustments to cover this region.

Firstly, for folk out West (currently perhaps Bristol area and Somerset) should stand by their lamp-posts over the next couple of hours. (MAIN SNOW RISK SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARDS IN THE COMING HOURS)*

*applies to this thread, throughout the overnight period

Right now, I'm going to attempt some form of analysis using the guidance of the ensembles. As to why I bang on about them sometimes endlessly, I will simply quote the following from the netweather learning guides.

Many leading agencies now believe that ensemble forecasting is the way forward for anything beyond 5 days – and sometimes even shorter.

I've had a quick glance of how I see the GFS 12z ensembles trending over recent days and the following suggests how I see things panning out for this region. I would advise that FI, i.e. where model guidance becomes far too varied and there is overriding scatter is around Sunday 9th December. So in simplistic terms, the general weather trend can be determined by using the attached charts. East Sussex and London are used as example locations and as is usual, I pay particular attention to the red mean line and look for first signs of divergence from the blue control line. When these two lines remain close together, there is more reliability to the forecast. As ever, I make my interpretation, based solely on consecutive days GEFS 12z analyses as shown below.

Two dates other than early tomorrow are worthy of attention and these are Thursday 6th December and Friday 7th December. Taking East Sussex as an example, I think other than tonight into tomorrow's event, the 6th December, will also see some snow, largely in the form of showers. Come the 7th December, there is a fair probability of a rain turning to snow episode, so watch this space!

As for our London residents and those more towards the SE, I see Thursday 6th December as having a small snow risk too and once again, I would highlight Friday 7th December as a rain turning to snow episode.

*Deeper into FI (9th December onwards), there is an increasing likelihood of drier weather in the more central parts and the closer you are to the East and SouthEast, I see a decent chance of further wintry precipitation, more especially in the form of showers.

*very low confidence level at this stage, 50:50 chance of being correct IMHO

Edited December 4, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Heisenberg]

Help 😱 they turn our lamp posts off at night round here !

Thankfully they still keep them on in Hatfield. They used to do the same in Borehamwood.....

anyway, its looking like we might see something very early. Im up at 5:30 every morning so looking forward to catching some.

[geminitracie]

I was saying the same thing the other day I think its very inconsiderate of them lol. Going to make it really hard to this year. Where about in Stevenage are you?

Fishers green area , what about you ?

Edited December 4, 2012 by geminitracie