Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[cold snap]

morning not been able to sleep all night.

Sad i know.ecm up to 96 its as you were.next frame will it deliver again

[Wilxy]

The high is further west again on both GFS and ECM so far in short range.

[karlos1983]

ECM 120 is good

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

[lesta_snow]

The high is further west again on both GFS and ECM so far in short range.

This may sound stupid but is that a good thing in terms of cold/snowy weather?

[ICETAB]

The upper air temp around russia is not as cold on this 0z ECM runs so not expecting FI to be as cold as last nights run but looking very good...

[Wilxy]

This may sound stupid but is that a good thing in terms of cold/snowy weather?

Id say so but iv heard we would be better of with a greenland high to begin winter.

Anyway so far a slight north and west shift in the high.

[cold snap]

ecm at 144 looks pretty dam good not the extreme of yesterday but still bitter cold

[Iceberg]

Not a Great deal of point looking too far beyond t144 and upto that point the models are still very good, ECM -7 850s for most at t144.

ECM also keeps on track to deliver the easterly at t96 so coming closer and closer.

Beyond t144 and the blocks are still in place to deliver, everything as good as could be hoped for.

[Mucka]

168 is a real beauty with more widespread snowfall likely, perhaps Greenland high and channel low toward the end?

Once again the trough is more of a player and the high further North.

Ah well I was getting a bit giddy there. Another run down that secures the block, FI is FI.

Edited December 6, 2012 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

If carlsberg did downgrades ...................

[IDO]

The GFS 0z op now two runs showing a quick breakdown of the cold, again before T240. Transitional snow on the battleground.

T228: http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

T264: http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

Next week the snow looks like being north centric as the high meanders and pushes the easterly/N Easterly flow further north (like the 18z).

The mean surface temps show an average week 2 for the SW and 0-5c for the rest, but the below zero mean has gone:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

GFS ensembles:

http://modeles.meteo...ndres&runpara=0

Still a 20% chance that the block leaves us with an Atlantic spoiler. The op and the mean both go for the cold option next week, but before Week 2 the OP heads for the milder clustering (about 33% but trend upwards). The mean shows a gradual resurgence of the Atlantic:

http://modeles.meteo...-21-1-384.png?0

With the easterly pushed back to Russia and the Greenland & Scandi high being absent.

The control keeps in the cold through FI and ends with this:

http://modeles.meteo...h-0-1-384.png?0

The ECM has a slacker easterly flow near its source and the real cold uppers are diverted to East Russia:

http://www.meteociel...0-192.GIF?06-12

Still cold with plenty of snow in the east:

http://www.meteociel...0-192.GIF?06-12

So still only low chance of Easterly not happening (GFS Ens). The GFS op although in the milder sector in FI is starting to show consistency for an early breakdown, with increasing minority support. This is also showing up on the ECM. At T216:

http://www.meteociel...0-216.GIF?06-12

The cold, like with the GFS is trending north bringing back the milder Atlantic.

By T240 the real cold is much further north (a la GFS):

Lets hope by next week we still get an easterly!!!

Edited December 6, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[Jupiters Winter]

-7 uppers to T216 and really messy now. Equals Snowfall in many places. Its trying to hold block.

T240 = Snowmageddon. Still holds huges potential down the line as we fo not lose the -5's from T120 - T240

Edited December 6, 2012 by Jupiters Winter

[swfc]

Both gfs and ecm show a weaker block to the north and ukmo isnt that strong either to be fair?Was always going to be a slight downgrade after yesterday granted but the low to the south looks a pain

[Iceberg]

Blimey ECM is very very snowy towards the end and still keeps the uk cold. Still beyond t144 is highly changeable.

Re gfs it looks to be the lower part of the resolution run where it try's to bring in the Atlantic on a few members.

[Wilxy]

Overall the trend is still there this morning so lots to be positve about

[Mucka]

Blimey ECM is very very snowy towards the end and still keeps the uk cold. Still beyond t144 is highly changeable.

Re gfs it looks to be the lower part of the resolution run where it try's to bring in the Atlantic on a few members.

That 240 chart would probably give blizzard conditions in places, shame it is 240, any breakdown would be worth it to see that.

[winterof79]

Cold throughout ECM with many opportunities for snowfall with a relatively warm North sea

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Winter synoptics do not get better in th UK so make the most of this.No complaints from me....what atlantic everything still sliding s/e.

[Duane S.]

12 hours closer and no major upsets. After yesterday the models are still VERY much saying yes to a very cold and snowy outbreak next week.

[mountain shadow]

No complaints with overnights. It will be cold and snowy throughout the whole of next week.

[Nick L]

Don't understand the despondency! The ECM is still very good in terms of wintry weather, and the 240 chart would result in me not being able to land at Heathrow that morning that's for sure. There was no improving on the 12z runs, let's be realistic here.

[snowblues]

UKMO- very good this morning at 144

[MKN]

Don't understand the despondency! The ECM is still very good in terms of wintry weather, and the 240 chart would result in me not being able to land at Heathrow that morning that's for sure. There was no improving on the 12z runs, let's be realistic here.

They look snowier to me even if not quite as cold

[Hammer]

How does the 00z compare to yesterday's 00z? Isn't that what we are told.

[IDO]

"Final piece of crucial wisdom in MR guidance just issued from Exeter: "...confidence in developments from Monday onwards remains very low....". Having seen their full analysis this caveat sentence is, rest assured, well founded: they're leaning towards EC with latest modifications but let's see where the next few EC runs take us to offer better continuity on some critical nuances Exeter highlight versus UKMO-GM and MOGREPS.

That was from Ian Fergusson late last night. The experts have no confidence of next week's pattern, so even though the models have been showing consistency, they obviously have data that suggests this is not cut and dry. It was suggested that the weekend may be the earliest they use "Easterly" in their media output. We are gonna have to look for trends in the next 48 hours and at the moment we need ECM to stay on track for their next four runs and not waver like GFS. Thats not to say that even if the Easterly is a short affair, what follows would eventually not be cold as well.

Edited December 6, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[tonbridgemole]

Still looking good for next week lots of possible snow events showing up in the models and still cold