Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[stratty]

First hints on national weather of a looooooooooooooong winter coming up!

[Slowpoke]

BANK!

[Costa Del Fal]

Into FI GFS goes back into its usual mode but after some of those charts beforehand, I wouldnt be disappointed if it was right but it looks very overly progressive to me as usual anyway!

[Weathizard]

Not quite as good as the ECM though if I'm being fussy haha

[If Wishes made Weather]

By 192 we have again the link up of the 0c uppers coming from Europe right across the Atlantic to meet those coming out of Greenland (presumably these are crazy mild temperatures for them). But what strikes me is that up to this point, both the 18z, the ECM 12z and GFS 12z are all variations on the same theme. By 192 we are in the middle (not at the end) of a long draw easterly with areas of lower heights embedded that stretches from central Aisa right over to Greenland. Strange times indeed.

[CrimsonSunset]

The setup would need to be every bit this extreme if we are to even begin considering any snowfall on the south coast of Ireland from an easterly...so I'm really not going to get my hopes up for another few days.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can anyone spot the potential visitor....?

[in the vale]

I have believed these types of synoptics will appear for a few weeks now, but what I am amazed by is the growing margin for error we are currently seeing. These are not the usual tippy-toe, knife edge situations, but a blunt instrument that pushes way beyond the UK into the Atlantic. We all know it won't happen exactly like the ECM is showing, but with that margin to play with the whole pattern could pull east by a shedload and we'd still be very cold. GFS seems to be going down a similar road, updated faxes look very interesting, stratosphere warming, CFS suggesting huge reload potential, NAO heading into deeply negative territory etc etc. Memorable winter coming up.

[Timmytour]

One thing of note ...the GFS has been quite consistent in deep FI about bringing in a milder interlude. Nothing wrong with that and there would be every chance of a reload which I believe it might already be on its way to showing.

But, in view of how great the charts ar before that, how much snow we could get out of it, and how the milder interlude might introduce itself with a rapid thaw and heavy rain....I'd be a little concerned with the flooding situation especially to southern and western parts of the UK come sunday week.

A long way off I know and so much to potentially enjoy befoe that, but something to keep an eye on

Edited December 5, 2012 by Timmytour

[Matty M]

The next step we want to see from the models is a move towards a deeper cold pool! with -8 -> -12c 850hPa temps coming across B&I instead of -4c -> -8c currently progged by GFS.

[karlos1983]

Can anyone spot the potential visitor....?

Purple blob by any chance?

[Fred Sykes]

This will probably get missed amongst the colour, but excellent fax:

Easterly by Monday?

Hello Great Britain, my name is Mr Easterly, can I come in please? My Dad (Mr Beasterly) with be joing us in the next couple of days, to bring lots of snow and bitterly cold temps to all you lovely people. It may mean you get snowed in and not get to work, is that ok?

[Slowpoke]

Hello Great Britain, my name is Mr Easterly, can I come in please? My Dad (Mr Beasterly) with be joing us in the next couple of days, to bring lots of snow and bitterly cold temps to all you lovely people. It may mean you get snowed in and not get to work, is that ok?

daddy bea at the back grinning

[Tom Jarvis]

whaeres is mr murr has h fainted

also if the easetly came how much snow could the east sussex get

[Allseasons-Si]

Can anyone spot the potential visitor....?

.the pv shifting to siberia,thats what gp,chio etc was relating to.

[Rob K]

Purple blob by any chance?

That'll be Mr P. Vortex who has decided to visit Russia for Christmas, paving the way for a Greenland high to build and a shedload of cold air to come down to Britain from the north... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.png

(ignore the Dec 21 Mayan Apocalypse LP there and look at the general theme...)

[Catacol]

Good GFS 18z run. Ensembles remaining very good also. Feb '91 or maybe something better is possible from here. I'm struggling to believe that the playful comments I made about a week ago about a Feb 91 might actually have a chance of coming to fruition.

I must say that it is quite difficult to see how this could go wrong from here. NH vortex modelling certainly isnt going to put the mockers on HP to our north in the next week or so, and OldMetMan talked to us all about the jet forecasts that seem to be maintaining a very southerly course, with a clear constant signal for low pressure over Europe. Unless something happens out of the blue to the position and behaviour of the vortex I cant see the general pattern changing from here at least in the 10 - 14 day range.

Hats off once again to GP who called the shredding of the vortex mid December from about 2 - 3 weeks range at a time when others were doubting the pattern due to the very cold strat.

[Chris K]

Can anyone spot the potential visitor....?

Cookie monster on the left? Didn't he turn up in the models earlier this year? Maybe its him tampering with the models...and may he continue.

[Tony Beets]

IF CARLSBERG DID BEASTERLYS THEY WOULD BE THE OUTPUT FOR TONIGHT!!!! A big Steve murr BOOOOM!!!

[joggs]

Unbelievable charts, although not certain to come off.Hey its. gotta happen one time! Gp hats off

Unbelievable charts, although not certain to come off.Hey its. gotta happen one time! Gp hats off

[Craigers]

one thing i have noticed this year is how well the back ground signals have done up to this point. if this all verifies, as a fellow yorkshire man, were all in for something very special this winter

[Wilxy]

just thought i would say well done netweather for breaking your record, and for the servers to stay running when about 2,000 people are clicking that refreash button.

[Mark Neal.]

Steve is Online, but i think he is speechless What an amazing day of model output, some of the best charts i have ever seen. Long may we see such charts and for them to come to fruition, an interesting few days to come and then beyond could indeed be tasty

[SnowObsessor90]

Unbelievable charts, although not certain to come off.Hey its. gotta happen one time! Gp hats off

Unbelievable charts, although not certain to come off.Hey its. gotta happen one time! Gp hats off

There's still a fair way to go yet but clearly he wouldn't just come out and say "get set it's coming" if there wasn't reason for it.

[lorenzo]

You simply couldn't make it up.