Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[If Wishes made Weather]

Note here how the low pressure that has moved down the North Sea and faffed around in Mecklenburg for a bit is now being pulled westward over the south of the UK. This lowers heights and will increase PPn potential. Interesting is the feature off San Sebastian - this is the remains of a bit of vortex that was pulled down from Greenlandish. It is now being pulled east into central and southern Europe putting a little more pressure on the isolbars and enhancing the easterly flow to the north of it.

[Costa Del Fal]

Much stronger 500hPa heights on this run too too our North. Plus a more akin to the ECM on this, Really incredible runs today. May I suggest these some of the best model runs for some decades here??? Really incredible output. There will be more ups and downs but the start of an Easterly is just potentially 4 or 5 days away now.

[Jupiters Winter]

HaHa!! He never gave up. Now he is maybe breathing and doing a proper PUB run!!

Steve Murr must have collapsed, ?

[January Snowstorm]

For possibly the first time in Netweather history we have complete agreement that the 18z and ECM are WOW!!

How will we sleep tonight lol

[Supacell]

Rarely I post in the models thread but I can't miss out on this.

-8c uppers into the UK by mid next week on 18z GFS and the 12z ECM chart run is epic.

And to think before this potential snowfest and intense cold there is the possibility of a snow event for northern hills tomorrow and then to lower levels early on Friday if the GFS/NAE precip charts are to be believed

Edited December 5, 2012 by Supacell

[Andy_]

Is that -10 uppers forming over the alps? Remarkable i've never seen anything like that on model output before

[suffolkboy_]

You're on in 5 mins on our local Beeb forecast - will u be dropping a hint in that forecast?

Sky channel 966 it seems to watch Points West.....presume I have the right region? BBC 1 west?

[Harsh Climate]

The low makes land fall, all day blizzard for yorkshire,north east england and eastern scotland

Edited December 5, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Cheshire Freeze]

BREAKING NEWS: Footage in of Steve Murr fainting due to obscenely frigid model runs

[PolarWarsaw]

BRILLANT RUNS TONIGHT-

Just dont want to take these too seriously- they are likely or have a chance to go wrong as soon as the morning.

If these charts are still appearing by Sunday 12z, I'll really believe in it.

Until then- chance of an easterly next week, remaining chilly with a chance of something colder through next week, no real certainty yet though.

[Bristawl Si]

Sky channel 966 it seems to watch Points West.....presume I have the right region? BBC 1 west?

Correct!

[Weathizard]

Agreement at 168 between the two big guns is key in my opinion, obviously not nailed but they both look very similar throughout

[Geordiesnow]

I still expect variations in the output and we still got to be mindful of this but at the moment, we could be having a taster of things to come even by the end of the weekend if things progress as they are predicted.

However you have to say any Atlantic weather is probably only about a 10% risk at the moment, but lets be mindful that the models will vary regarding the troughing, Scandi high orientation and the Atlantic ridge which may give some good stella runs and some not so good runs but the theme will probably still be a cold one.

[Matty M]

If this resulted we would need the uppers 2-3c colder for snow by the coast. Quite marginal , just look at progged 2m temps.

Excellant runs though.

[Allseasons-Si]

Steve murr is at the global forcasting station tapping around with the mega comp and thowing in a few £££ in the process,lol,

where are u Mr.murr

[karlos1983]

For possibly the first time in Netweather history we have complete agreement that the 18z and ECM are WOW!!

How will we sleep tonight lol

I'm very concerned about going to sleep tonight, will definitely be looking at the phone with one eye open and a few fingers across the screen up to 144.

Fantastic charts, I may just give them a miss in the morning??? Yeah I know i wont.

[chionomaniac]

Who called?

Don't panic or worry- I'm here!

[Andy H]

Congrats NW On the new record!

Edited December 5, 2012 by Andy H

[Cloud 10]

Yessss! The UKMO have modified their raw output in the 120hrs fax chart.

Indeed they have,not often it is changed to that extent from the raw ukmo.

ukmo.. fax..

[Zenarcher]

Excellent 18z so good the online record for this forum has been broken.

[ITSY]

Indeed they have,not often it is changed to that extent from the raw ukmo.

ukmo.. fax..

Must be fairly bullish about that happening then...

[crimsonp]

BAM!!!!!

[Supercell 89]

GFS almost coming into line with the ECM up to 240hrs

[Long haul to mild]

Another great run, although from an IMBY perspective, I'd rather have the ECM; from past experience, being too near the centre of the low could mean being in slightly less cold air with snow risk somewhat diminished.

But still, wow!

[weatherguy]

Loses the plot once more in the far reaches of FI GFS style, but huzzah we have yet more consistency in the medium-term!

Edited December 5, 2012 by weatherguy