Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[chionomaniac]

Good evening all,

Well after the best ECM run that I can ever remember seeing will the GFS provide us with suitable after dinner drinks?

Let's hope so.

And remember to quote SM - 'the train is only coming when you can see the train'

At this point we still have our ears to the track!

Happy Posting.

[Snowman.]

I reckon the 18z GFS run will be a more diluted run of the ECM.

[ITSY]

the ENS are still ridiculous. The number of runs above freezing for the last 6 days you can count on one hand!

[Potent Gust]

I reckon the 18z GFS run will be a more diluted run of the ECM.

I agree. Although even that will be fantastic. I am trying not to ramp up the charts to my friends and family because when I do they tend to go the way of the pear.

[Southern Storm]

I don't think Gibby is posting his usual update tonight but I could be wrong,

If so what a night to take off.

Has anyone got model fatigue yet?

If we get a backtrack now I think I would call it a day lol

[kumquat]

What's all this "Daxy Monssaw" business Pyro?

[Ian Brown]

Well I can't add to the hyberbole following the ECM, absolutely incredible synoptics. Going back to the old thread, somebody pointed out that there were runs on 27/1/12 showing -20HPA over Belgium for 5/2, I'm pretty sure that was only 1 ECM and perhaps 2 GFS runs. Even so, we need consistency of the pattern tomorrow even if we don't see such stellar synoptics.

The NOGAPS supports the rather bizarre UKMO tonight it should be noted.

Edited December 5, 2012 by Ian Brown

[cold snap]

ECM not a outlier in later stages ?

[SnowRules]

I think we'll see a downgrade come tomorrow morning, it's too good to be true...

[January Snowstorm]

Well I can't add to the hyberbole following the ECM, absolutely incredible synoptics. Going back to the old thread, somebody pointed out that there were runs on 27/1/12 showing -20HPA over Belgium for 5/2, I'm pretty sure that was only 1 ECM and perhaps 2 GFS runs. Even so, we need consistency of the pattern tomorrow even if we don't see such stellar synoptics.

The NOGAPS supports the rather bizarre UKMO tonight it should be noted.

And also the BOM which quite often gets a mention when it shows cold

It also says no

[Wilxy]

I think we'll see a downgrade come tomorrow morning, it's too good to be true...

More than likely yes, but no need to be negative at all the trend for blocking is increasing all the time.

[bryan629]

lol, are we predicting what the 18z GFS might predict now, come off it ... patience plz itll come off , past couple of 18z have been good, stayed in and havent been down the pub... sherdders is pretty much redundant now

[crimsonp]

did i miss something? what's all this about the ECM?

[Timmytour]

I think we'll see a downgrade come tomorrow morning, it's too good to be true...

Could be sooner....the GFS 18z has had a habit of reversing expectations in the last few days.

Such a strange feeling to be looking forward to a model run trying to hang on as uch as possible to what you think you already have as opposed to desperately wanting an upgrade!

[chionomaniac]

Ensemble 850 mean T+192

Not bad......

[Methuselah]

I think we'll see a downgrade come tomorrow morning, it's too good to be true...

Not too much room for upgrades, when you come to think about it, though? They don't get much better that that?

[Snowy Easterlies]

And also the BOM which quite often gets a mention when it shows cold

It also says no

True BOM is awful thank god the ECM doesn't show that horrid zonality

[chionomaniac]

My reading of the ensemble mean at T+240 for 500 hPa is that there will be a considerable number of members going for a Greenland high with a trough dropping down east of Scandi - another good situation and indicative of the pattern suggested earlier.

[hilldweller]

I really really hope that this doesnt downgrade .

I have never seen such amazing charts in the 5 plus years I have been looking at charts !

I cannot see any more upgrades there really is nowhere to go is there !

[Catacol]

I think we'll see a downgrade come tomorrow morning, it's too good to be true...

I love cold and snow, but I think this is right. Chio said earlier that if the easterly is half as good as modelled then everyone will be happy. Well... I hope so, but I suspect not... so when the next run or 3 shows some short term downgrades then please let's not have all the toys thrown out.

I know some hate to hear it, but it's all about trends. The ensembles have picked out this trend for a while now; into the medium term the De Bilt ensembles certainly show some very cold air heading our way, but the intensity of the flow and the amount of precipitation are still hugely uncertain.

So... be excited for sure. Have confidence in those ensembles and in the teleconnections that all point to good background signals, but let's try to keep feet on the ground. If we get to 72h and the charts have a stiff flow with a frontal system or two heading up from the SE then go for it then. Right now... chill a bit. (no pun intended... :-) )

[Downburst]

I agree. Although even that will be fantastic. I am trying not to ramp up the charts to my friends and family because when I do they tend to go the way of the pear.

Yes be careful there. Last weeks meltdown is forgotten here, I got deleted for trying to be realistic. All the other superlatives possible won't make a run reality. Ramping is fun for a while but not sustainable as people that do it are not taken seriously after a while. Sells advertising. Don't fall into that trap of mouthing off lot of emotion 4 times a day on NWP past a week when the real pros don't,. If ever caution is needed it's for an easterly like that on the ECM. More money.

[Long haul to mild]

I had a feeling things were going to be good tonight when I logged on and saw that there were over 20 pages of model discussion between 4pm and 7pm!

That ECM is the most amazing run I have ever seen but I hope that the wrist slashing is kept to a minimum when the 0z is inevitably not as good!

Still, the trend is fantastic and I will be very surprised if we don't get an Easterly of some sort next week, with the potential for some significant snow in places, along with very cold temperatures.

[ronan]

I think most of you are doing a great job of holding back until things start verifying! I think a valuable lesson has been learnt from previous let downs! The constant reminders from more experienced members that each model shouldn't be taken at face value! In the long run I think this could help people deal with let downs better! I think and hope that there win't be much change on the Pub Run! There could be a few all nighters done tonight for those waiting to see if the 00's stick with the trend! A wee smoke and a cuppa tea before its eyes down!!

[bluearmy]

Not too much room for upgrades, when you come to think about it, though? They don't get much better that that?

exactly RP. the ecm op at day 10 is outside it spread wrt to uppers. around -10c in the se is the current limit according to the ens. could someone please link the postage stamps so we can see how consistent the ens are at day 7 please. naefs dribbling out soon and de bilt in approx 30 mins. then it will be eyes down for the pub run and only another 6 hours from then till the gfs 00z is available !! inconceivable that the ecm op will verify exactly like that but then the 00z seemed to be crazy enough ! strange times. note that NOAA cpc have a problem teleconnecting the two strongest hemispheric anomolous ridges week 2 and go for the pacific one ahead of the icelandic i preference (for the time being).

and last week is nothing like this week wrt the output. ecm jumped ship with the newfoundland energy at around T168/T192.

Edited December 5, 2012 by bluearmy

[Paul_1978]

I agree. Although even that will be fantastic. I am trying not to ramp up the charts to my friends and family because when I do they tend to go the way of the pear.

I know what you mean. I mentioned to my family the other week about some great looking charts, and later that night they were gone!

I felt their disappearance was my fault for tempting fate!