Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[Jan_Bromley]

Thanks Ian. The precipitation looks dynamic indeed

Jan

[patrickshere]

It's funny watching people complain and say that everything's going wrong, or writing the 6z off as a poor run, the 18z run (pub run) as a poor run (or whatever run said bad run is) yet when a good run comes up, it's treated like a dead cert.

If we're still seeing the same on Saturday, you can start to get excited, but this is still very much FI territory, and small changes over the next few days in what transpires can make huge differences down the line (even if teleconnections are favourable).

Edited December 5, 2012 by mituozo

[TEITS]

It's funny watching people complain and say that everything's going wrong, or writing the 6z off as a poor run, the 18z run (pub run) as a poor run (or whatever run said bad run is) yet when a good run comes up, it's treated like a dead cert.

If we're still seeing the same on Saturday, you can start to get excited, but this is still very much FI territory, and small changes over the next few days in what transpires can make huge differences down the line (even if teleconnections are favourable).

I think everyone is just enjoying the model output without assuming its a dead cert. Lets be honest many of us spend the Autumn looking forward to winter and if you cannot get excited at todays output then to be honest you're in the wrong place.

This isn't a dig at you by the way.

[SMU]

Evening All-

Just a comment on the evolution- we are almost there- however as said we cannot assume yet... wait until the end of the 12's tomorrow-

Anyway assuming we go to plan, what the GFS & ECM are modelling is 'some' energy moving SE across the atlantic & under the block- the critial element from this is the poleward extent that the jet returns North again towards Central Europe-

This is a tricky evolution that can be the jackpot or bust- A jet of this nature will deepen a low over iberia which will inturn initially force the upper cold pool west, as the low tracks NE it WILL move the 0c isotherm closer to the UK.

The mild runs are showing these lows moving NE then recurvung NW up the western flank of the UK- thats the bust scenario ( snow turning to rain from the South)

THe Extreme ECM shows the same type just but more of a Easterly flow of the jet through the med so the Low moves NE then slips under the block.

I think we are heading towards some sort of incursion from the south-

Because of the GFS bias for poleward energy then the GFS will keep tugging this low North, the ECM which resolves better may see the undercut clearer.

When you get a particular jet profile with a wedge of high pressure to the North & energy moving up from Biscay you often create a big gradient through the middle.

Usually its further south & the central belt of France gets pummelled- however once in a blue moon you get it just right-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1952/archives-1952-3-29-0-0.png that is the best outcome.

So things to look for tomorrow-

Finalising the lows track & how far south she goes- 120-144.

Subsequent CAA over the top 144-174.

FI-- Jet profiles over Europe & whats moving North towards the UK-

this is the pattern you want ( just a tad farther North)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1881/archives-1881-1-15-0-0.png

Have fun- !

S

[suffolkboy_]

It's funny watching people complain and say that everything's going wrong, or writing the 6z off as a poor run, the 18z run (pub run) as a poor run (or whatever run said bad run is) yet when a good run comes up, it's treated like a dead cert.

If we're still seeing the same on Saturday, you can start to get excited, but this is still very much FI territory, and small changes over the next few days in what transpires can make huge differences down the line (even if teleconnections are favourable).

I think there are two reasons why everyone is so excited tonight.....

Firstly, ECM showed near enough the 'perfect' easterly, something never really seen forecast, let alone actually materialising, only then to be fairly well supported by the GFS...

Secondly the fact that GFS and ECM are both very similar considering the timescale is promising. Add this in with what Steve and GP have been forecasting, plus the warming of the strat, plus many other encouraging signals all point in the same direction...an easterly looks MUCH more likely that any mild/zonal weather in the mid/long term.

Ofcourse it's unlikely that everything will run as smoothly as that, but the output is very very promising.

I know what you mean though.....we have all been hurt before and it's sometimes a case of once bitten twice shy.

[Bonjangle]

I know it's not really the place.....but I think it's time to drag this old favourite out again.....could we see it again?

Is this what we are about to be having or will it be worse than this .

[jam]

It's funny watching people complain and say that everything's going wrong, or writing the 6z off as a poor run, the 18z run (pub run) as a poor run (or whatever run said bad run is) yet when a good run comes up, it's treated like a dead cert.

If we're still seeing the same on Saturday, you can start to get excited, but this is still very much FI territory, and small changes over the next few days in what transpires can make huge differences down the line (even if teleconnections are favourable).

Ahh thank you oh wise and sage like one.. We were waiting on your missives before we make up our own minds on whether we can get 'excited' or not

[Buriedundersnow]

I know it's not really the place.....but I think it's time to drag this old favourite out again.....could we see it again?

thank god the weather reports have changed from then and we can now see if the showers have a chance of hitting us or not.

[bryan629]

a few more days of watching still to come , looking excellent so far as in epic, this roller coaster is on fire at the mo..... loving the white knuckles and enjoying the ride while we are holding on with baited breath and clenched teeth, and thats just in the taxi lol ....great day to be had as far as model watching goes .... atlantic R.I.P

[gazzac69]

• Hi all my first post in model output thread.
  
• I have been watching this forum for a good few years now and I am sensing the excitment of the much anticipated easterly coming, I just personally feel from this winter so far (IMBY) that this winter is going to be something to remember, to actually see these model runs so far today and this evening has been astonishing, especially after this afternoons snow storm in the Newcastle area which brought the city to a standstill(sorry again imby)
  
• have been attached to PC all evening watching and learning please keep up the good work.
  

thx

Gary

Edited December 5, 2012 by gazzac69

[patrickshere]

I think there are two reasons why everyone is so excited tonight.....

Firstly, ECM showed near enough the 'perfect' easterly, something never really seen forecast, let alone actually materialising, only then to be fairly well supported by the GFS...

Secondly the fact that GFS and ECM are both very similar considering the timescale is promising. Add this in with what Steve and GP have been forecasting, plus the warming of the strat, plus many other encouraging signals all point in the same direction...an easterly looks MUCH more likely that any mild/zonal weather in the mid/long term.

Ofcourse it's unlikely that everything will run as smoothly as that, but the output is very very promising.

I know what you mean though.....we have all been hurt before and it's sometimes a case of once bitten twice shy.

I've seen a lot of near perfect easterlies forecasted in the last 7 or so years, and the one thing they have in common is that they all get downgraded this far out. Whilst yes we have two runs here that are showing good things, they're just that 2 out of lots of runs in a single day, and we're talking out at ~150 hours, when FI in the current setup is easily within 96 hours.

I'm just saying that members tend to get carried away with their predictions, and the analysis gets biased, which reduces the quality of the thread from a model watching point of view. (i.e. it's just people going "omg it's going to be so cold!!!")

I think everyone is just enjoying the model output without assuming its a dead cert. Lets be honest many of us spend the Autumn looking forward to winter and if you cannot get excited at todays output then to be honest you're in the wrong place.

This isn't a dig at you by the way.

Oh sure, I'm excited - just quietly excited. I'll just be waiting until the weekend before I start predicting what's likely to happen ~7 days out from now.

Ahh thank you oh wise and sage like one.. We were waiting on your missives before we make up our own minds on whether we can get 'excited' or not

If I posted a generic post telling everyone to get excited and that we were in for 1947 then there'd be no problem, give a point of view that errs on the side of caution and.....

Edited December 5, 2012 by mituozo

[AWD]

Decent clustering up until the 14th, there after more scatter as you would expect, with the Op on the mild side of its suite;

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=507&y=16

[fergieweather]

Final piece of crucial wisdom in MR guidance just issued from Exeter: "...confidence in developments from Monday onwards remains very low....". Having seen their full analysis this caveat sentence is, rest assured, well founded: they're leaning towards EC with latest modifications but let's see where the next few EC runs take us to offer better continuity on some critical nuances Exeter highlight versus UKMO-GM and MOGREPS.

[kumquat]

Just want to bring your minds back to E,lys over recent years.

Dec 2005.

http://www.wetterzen...00120051227.gif

Feb 2009.

http://www.wetterzen...00120090202.gif

GEFS 18Z Mean.

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-168.png?18

Now those E,lys did actually deliver the goods for me but if you compare those charts to the GFS/GEFS/ECM you will agree our current projected E,lys are looking far tastier.

So basically without tempting fate but even with a downgrade the outlook is looking very promising and the 12Z ECM will be virtually impossible to improve upon.

Yeah but how's the Black Ops going TEITS? lol

BTW saw a lot of seagulls flying in to settle on inland pond this morning. That nailed it for me.

[Gorky]

Euro is great for me but the GFS still seems a little warm for my liking. Purely selfish but I like to see -10's at 850mb on a solid easterly. if the GFS came off, I'd be getting a lot of sleet with the warm sea moderating temps somewhat. Much less of an issue for us on the coast with a Northerly as today proved though!

[pistolpetes11]

[nwvideo]

Edited December 6, 2012 by pistolpetes11

[Captain Shortwave]

I still feel cautious about this, I think there are a lot of great signs here, but lets see if these runs keep showing up over the next few days. If the ECM/GFS pick out the same runs tomorrow evening then I think we are in real good shape and of course if we get to saturday and it's still showing without shortwave dramas then I think should learn how to live like people in Eastern Europe do during the winter as that might be necessary.

Whilst the sounds of a winter as epic as the ones which occurred before I was born (I was born in 1990 and was too young to remember the February 1991 cold spell), I do feel a sense of fear about how this country will cope, I have a feeling that there would be absolute chaos in this country. I hope I am wrong on that front.

[Rob K]

Decent clustering up until the 14th, there after more scatter as you would expect, with the Op on the mild side of its suite;

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=507&y=16

Very solid agreement of a 3-day easterly from the 11th to 14th at least. Although what are the chances that one solitary outlier has nailed it?

[swfc]

I still feel cautious about this, I think there are a lot of great signs here, but lets see if these runs keep showing up over the next few days. If the ECM/GFS pick out the same runs tomorrow evening then I think we are in real good shape and of course if we get to saturday and it's still showing without shortwave dramas then I think should learn how to live like people in Eastern Europe do during the winter as that might be necessary.

Whilst the sounds of a winter as epic as the ones which occurred before I was born (I was born in 1990 and was too young to remember the February 1991 cold spell), I do feel a sense of fear about how this country will cope, I have a feeling that there would be absolute chaos in this country. I hope I am wrong on that front.

Being cautious is the way to go when model watching.Give it while the weekend and see how things lie.One thing for sure is the latest ecm run coudnt be bettered.The winters of 78-79-81 were very severe and to be honest anyone north of watford got on with it!!!! Edited December 6, 2012 by swfc

[Rob K]

Is this what we are about to be having or will it be worse than this .

If that is a 1991 forecast (I'm on my mobile so can't watch it now) then no chance. That was a once in a lifetime easterly. Next week I'd expect highs of +2c by the end of the week and a few snow showers with modest accumulations in favoured spots. I certainly wouldn't expect snowy Armageddon!

Put it this way - I can't see anything as severe and snowy as Dec 2010 (or Jan 2010 when I got 25cm+ of snow here in Hampshire).

Edited December 6, 2012 by Rob K

[swfc]

If that is a 1991 forecast (I'm on my mobile so can't watch it now) then no chance. That was a once in a lifetime easterly. Next week I'd expect highs of +2c by the end of the week and a few snow showers with modest accumulations in favoured spots. I certainly wouldn't expect snowy Armageddon!

Put it this way - I can't see anything as severe and snowy as Dec 2010 (or Jan 2010 when I got 25cm+ of snow here in Hampshire).

Check out jan 87

[Neilsouth]

Just to remind you lot, that in 1991 we hard partly cloudy skies which then started off with ice pellets or as we call it now snizzle . I woke up the next day to deep snow, blizzards and temps of -5 DAY TIME. That goes to show how cold 1991 really was, it also didn't last that long but many schools were closed and cars buried

[Paul Sherman]

Check out jan 87

Yes some of next weeks projected charts bear a canny resemblance to that amazing 6 day event.

Which just got worse and worse - Nice 7 days of School though

Edited December 6, 2012 by Paul Sherman

[Timmytour]

Jan 87 was certainly cold.... but i remember it as only having an inch of snow, albeit it stuck around for a long time. in fact it was weird going into the City (London) and seeing more snow there! It was great for those to the east and south of the river who couldn't get to work for being snowed in, but not so good for us green-with-envy types :-)

[swfc]

Yes some of next weeks projected charts bear a canny resemblance to that amazing 6 day event.

Which just got worse and worse - Nice 7 days of School though

Sheffield had 40cm of level snow and day time temps of -8!!!!!!!.As for the models today id personally give it while at least saturday and see where the various models sit with the movement of the low pressures se movement