Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[Jupiters Winter]

Trends are looked out for in Fi. But with such blocking to the north east and well established cold uppers Fi comes right down in timeframe. Eg: That low that crashes into the UK was not even model on previous runs so even though it is a solution but without consistency and above all in current setup a real Fi zone.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I thought the 12z GFS (especially in FI) had a notorious progressive bias? Though probably sorted since the upgrades.

TBH around 168 hours it's completely different to the 6z in terms of block orientation and Atlantic set up so we're no closer to where we'll be at that timeframe. 18z and 00z should help out as starters!

Edited December 6, 2012 by CreweCold

[Alex95]

Wow I can't believe some people in the East are actually moaning! NE England has had 8 inches from slack flows like that in the last few years, as well as in the more distant past. Look at 22nd-23rd Dec 2010 on the archives. Not particularly inspiring looking compared with last night's ECM for next week, but those charts gave 8 inches at Morpeth, and 3-4 inches in Newcastle & Durham over the course of a day.

Obviously next week's easterly would cover places further south down the east coast too.

http://www.netweathe...ction=gfs;sess=

Edited December 6, 2012 by Alza

[sebastiaan1973]

Please use this chart to estimate the 850hpa temperatures for UKMO 120 and 144h. It´s made by Alwin Haklander, Dutch meteorologist. http://news.imau.nl/?p=92

[Backtrack]

12z is just shocking. Heights transfer Eastwards too quickly leaving us open to a quick Atlantic attack. I do hope we're not going to see another complete backtrack from the models like last time....

[Jayces]

Below are the offerings from the last 3 days of the GFS for 13:00 on Saturday the 15th December from the 12Z.

They are all vastly different which should be enough to settle people's nerves who seem to take any change beyond a few days as gospel.

[Neilsouth]

Of course it is a "downgrade" the ECM charts of yesterday don't upgrade. There was only ever one way the charts would go, IF you compare them to the aforementioned.

I'd suggest wiping yesterday evening's ECM from your memory banks and look at it from a clear perspective.

Eh? who mentioned ECM, Gfs was doing it too as was JMA and BOM

[NorthernRab]

Or more likely, a huge easterly. Then a toppler again, then an impressive northerly, then an an Atlantic storm, and then finally something in between.

Edited December 6, 2012 by shuggee

[ITSY]

Just to give an example of how things come and go snowfall wise:

GEM produces a wash streamer - that would give significant snowfall (having already experienced them before) and will be gone at the next run. It may happen, it may not, but to pin hopes on PPN charts outside of the +96 or even +72 range is bonkers.

[SMU]

lol at the GFS being the best model.

I dispair here at some people.

Lets see what the ECM brings out tonight. Im sure things will settle down then

s

[snowking]

To be fair now Steve and being objective the gfs was the first model to pick up a downgrade on the last projected easterly that never happened. This gfs thinking is your view and I beg to differ. In fact I think the 12z gfs run has proven to be the most accurate model stat wise of all runs and all models.

Its looking bitterly cold next week, perhaps making news such is the cold.

But what is now in firm doubt this evning is 1) Duration and 2) Precipitation

Let's hope the ECM sticks to its guns

JS

Both your points have always been in doubt!

The only likelihood that anyone has suggested is an easterly flow of some kind. There's is as much point speculating on duration and precipitation at this range as there is speculating about Steve Murr's future reincarnation into a sausage shaped high

SK

[The PIT]

Well the lesser beast from the east is just outside the reliable time the 18 oz unless it delays it should bring it into the reliable time frame. Unfortunately GFS doesn't show much in the way of precipitation away from the coast so the wait for a snow flake here could well be a long one still.

[pyrotech]

There seems to be a few on here trying to provoke a reaction. New members this is an upgrade.

Why? Because we look for trends and more models are showing a cold trend. Snowfall is something to worry or look for 24 hours out. Cold surface and 850mb temps are all we worry about right now. Look for cross model agreement for cold or mild. Its cold trend now. In Fi the best guide is listening to those who know about mountain torque nao ao and pv.. 500 charts are good too for fi. Its very good trend and some surprise last minute snow often follows if you get cold like this over the Uk. I would like to see Ec follow with something resembling yesterday but in all honesty everything has gone pretty much right today. I would be more worried if other models showed totally different today but no they show a similar trend.

Sorry did this on phone as in work.

[SnowRules]

I knew people would start complaining today, these charts are pretty amazing compared with last year. Of course there was going to be a downgrade but it's still looking good for some very cold weather.

[ITSY]

12z is just shocking. Heights transfer Eastwards too quickly leaving us open to a quick Atlantic attack. I do hope we're not going to see another complete backtrack from the models like last time....

Mate you are clearly looking at different charts! what is wrong with some people? That is shocking! Easterly for basically all of low res, potential snowfall and you focus on typically overblown GFS FI as gospel - over and above what is being shown before hand? Get a grip pal, I'm gona migrate to TWO until people seriously re-evaluate their model readings!!

Edited December 6, 2012 by ITSY

[Bobby]

The GEM and NOGAPS are excellent though.

GEM +144

NOGAPS +180

[The PIT]

lol at the GFS being the best model.

I dispair here at some people.

Lets see what the ECM brings out tonight. Im sure things will settle down then

s

Sometimes it is sometimes it isn't. Sometimes the UKMO is best although this is a more rare event.

[kold weather]

12z GFS FI is well known for being overly progressive...

Many times during the 2010 cold spell it tried to flatten things out only to have to rebuild another block.

[PubliusEnigma]

Posts like this make me want to kick my cat up the ar*e!

The cold E,ly continues to be predicted by the models but as ever the detail is ever changing and will do even into this weekend.

The guy is discussing the 12z GFS run, which doesn't show an easterly out until T196 in fact the atlantic has returned to all of Ireland

and the SW by T192. The ensembles are modelling low pressure to the South west which could result in exactly the scenario developing

on the 12z. The Easterly may well ressurect on the the 18z and be reaffirmed on the ECM 12z but the last few runs have shown a much

slacker airflow within the vicinity of the UK, bar the south east corner. This is what model watching is about, commenting on 'your'

take on the models. There will be swings all ways on the upcoming outputs, and there will be so called upgrades and downgrades..

[Snowman.]

GEM is a real upgrade from the previous run, but going for a northerly instead?

[January Snowstorm]

The GEM and NOGAPS are excellent though.

GEM +144

NOGAPS +180

Yes both are good and encouraging before the ECM comes out.

As for best model we certainly know the UKMO has and is all over the place.

Even the Meto ignored it last night, so it's down to gfs v ecm and am sure you will find both have their day at times

[kold weather]

Models do seem to be trying to prevent the PV migration...

BUT I think they are barking very much up the wrong tree with that one, there are good enough signals IMO to discount the 12z GFS with its hyper low attacking from near enough nowhere.

[warrenb]

Meto ignore anything from the models post 5 days, so I wouldn't worry, GFS is quite funny really, because rather than snow we would be talking about damaging gales and flooding.

[peterf]

the mad house returns!

[SMU]

On my mobile now.

The NOGAPs is an extension of the UKMOs potential shown at 144.

The only time the GFS is any good is northerly topplers...

Anyway.. ECM coming soon