Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[TEITS]

Great TV forecast by Ian ferguson on our BBC local news just. By next Tuesday possible low pressure heading up from the SW with snow but he did say some way off.

I don't like to disagree with the Pros but next Tuesday sounds way too early. Very little evidence in the model output that Low pressure will hit the SW on Tuesday, more likely the end of the week and that remains questionable.

[SouthPennine88]

Well the ECM looks less colder the yesterdays but a whole lot more snowier in a balanced perspective!

Well it was never going to go colder

Not really a case of less cold today, more in the way of the same I think today

[BristolBaggie]

What model is showing a SW attack by next Tuesday?

Oops just looked at his forecast again and I misquoted him he said we need low pressure to arrive from the SW to get some snow but he said no sign of it yet.

[Catacol]

Well... next week is nailed for me. Snow detail nearer the time. The attempted breakdown over the weekend of 15/16 is going to be fascinating and I await the ecm ensembles with real interest. What is clear is that after the initial surge from the east there is some kind of battleground scenario in the offing. The NH transition from 168 to 192 looks far too swift and progressive to me on this run - the reason for my statement here being the speed with which it models low pressure charging out of Canada. That kind of speed rarely verifies on the ground: it will be a slower evolution and I think we have the potential for an absolutely classic snowy breakdown battle 4 or 5 days after the cold shunt from the east arrives. Angle of attack will be crucial, but wow - this is top quality soap opera stuff!

[Frosty.]

the ECm at 192 over the UK shows the type of surface cold that breaks the -20c barrier.

-8c Uppers.

Snowcover ( where ? lots of places)

Dead still air-

-20c cold.....

The snow will come.

Yes steve, narnia here we come, deep snow and jack frost dancing all over it next week, deep and crisp and even, feels really christmasy tonight

I would seriously just bank 7-10 days of bitter cold with snow chances galore and severe frosts and really not worry about beyond that, just keep reading what GP/SM/Chio have to say because I believe we are in for a prolonged freeze.

[January Snowstorm]

ECM confirms this evening that the atlantic could well win this battle by next weekend.

We have strong agreement now tonight that heights are not going to retrogress towards Greenland. (though FI at this stage)

I have to say not a bad run for UK, esp the Southeast but for Ireland not great as we are last to see the cold and first to lose it.

We basically get 3 days of severe frost and bitter winds

Saying that, this would apply to all Easterly's, I guess we are more favoured for Northwesterly's.

Last night was EPIC, tonight is back to earth but still good charts

[IDO]

I like T240 on the ECM with part of the PV doing the steering as the Atlantic edges in:

http://www.meteociel...M0-240.GIF?06-0

No problem if the Atlantic wins that war!

Edited December 6, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[kate1]

There is just so much promise in the situation right now - some great posts from people who know what they are talking about - as a newbie, can I implore those who don't know what they are talking about to think twice before posting? Or to go take a look at the Netweather guides and the Strat thread - which might help give them some perspective. Sorry to sound so grumpy and to go O/T, but I am starting to despair!

[Weather-history]

Anyone note the 1065mb Siberian high on the ECM 12Z?

[January Snowstorm]

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?06-0

And the final chart-

Snow in the SW moving East-

Tonights ECm is as good as last nights- exciting ensemble prospects.....

S

And the PV fully loaded to our North with heights sadly lacking

[phil nw.]

We are giving some leeway in here as a lot of members are upbeat about the cold spell, however, a few posters seem obsessed with looking for snow and are clogging the thread up with one line comments.

Can those posters please use the other threads and allow the rest of us to enjoy our discussions on the model outputs.

Any silly or off topic posts will disappear.

Thanks all.

[kumquat]

Ian's a Pro - you are not!

I think he said cold coming by Tuesday with low pressure out to the south west - hinting at potential snow further down the line - not necessarily by Tuesday

[weather eater]

Mostly what the ECM is showing is just how much evolving there is for the models to do post the 120hr mark, upgrades or downgrades this really is an open book.

[Gas Ed]

Great TV forecast by Ian ferguson on our BBC local news just. By next Tuesday possible low pressure heading up from the SW with snow but he did say some way off.

I think Ian got a little short of time but explained the basic situation, and said an attack could happen from the SW but also stated there was no sign of it yet. Follow the Points West Facebook page and it should be uploaded onto there soon

Oops soz Bristol Baggie, I see you've corrected yourself already!

Edited December 6, 2012 by Gas Ed

[pages]

Be happy with 120 and disregard everything else. The shortwaves/troughing over Europe won't be resolved to the the 12Z sunday. The 240hr will not verify, back round signals show height rises towards greenland day 10 and the ECM has low pressure

[SMU]

And the PV fully loaded to our North with heights sadly lacking

You need to take the IMBY ism out of your posts, no one in the SE moans when you get a good run-

The ECM 240 moving onto 264 will show heights over Iceland just +VE enough to keep the trough disruption over the UK- the only real mild air is sadly for Ireland- the nearer you are to the continent the colder it is.

I will book you in for B&B at folkstone.....

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

And the PV fully loaded to our North with heights sadly lacking

You've read that 240hrs wrong. Loaded with potential with moderate heights cutting up towards Greenland between 216 and 240 hours. That's why the LP in the Atlantic has been forced NW-SE on trajectory. You'd think only a matter of time before more signifficant height rises at northerly latitudes from that chart.

[IDO]

Strat Experts:

Is the PV meant to take this long to move to Siberia:

At 168 it looks like its saying its farewells to the Canadians. Then decides to hang around. I assume something is happening in the strat?

[Southender]

And the PV fully loaded to our North with heights sadly lacking

Genuine question.

Why are you so negative all the time?

We would of all given an arm and leg for this setup last winter. We are 1 week in for goodness sake.

[weather eater]

Why are so many folks getting all antsy about shortwave features that not only change with each-and-every run, but haven't even happened yet?

We still don't know when and where it'll snow tonight, yet!

Just not here despite the MO suggesting it might (no blame to them it was a hard call) in fact its chucking it down with rain, snow on the hill tops above a 1000ft only

[chris55]

And the PV fully loaded to our North with heights sadly lacking

I feel your posts are coming from an IMBY perspective, and not many of us live in southern Ireland. Better to keep the MO thread on a broader discussion IMO.

[Iceberg]

I am happy to admit i cant make head nor tail out of the evolution of some of the charts post T180....Good job i dont have to then as they wont occur.

the basics is that cold weather(even for me in the sw) stays until T180 beyond that goodness knows whats going to happen, but i've noticed by and large when the models put energy into the atlantic at t200+ they dont know really know what to do with it..

Next point are the massive massive differences n.Hemi for ECM at T200, definately pointing to a phase change.

Next its the 1055 high thats created over the urals etc, i have never in my life seen such as large 1055 high pressure, i've seen high pressure but not one that covers such as area to that size.

Finally snow. its difficult to envisage a situation where this wont lead to massive snow fall countrywise but we are along way from the breakdown yet.

[PubliusEnigma]

Well well.. ECM at T216 backs the GFS, with a hefty low pressure developing in the Atlantic ! But more alarmingly the arm of

Northern blocking from Scandi across to Greenland has collapsed. It just isnt there. And the Scandi High is retreating away

east into Russia on a NW/SE trajectory.. One has to say the runs today are a trend in the wrong direction, and tonights ECM

is a long way removed from the epic ECM of yesterday. All eyes on the Pub run to see if this can provide some kind of back

up to the developing trend from around 8 days out. Cold is still on the cards in the short term, albeit, the NNE winds seem to be

firming up rather than the stiff easterlies shown on earlier runs.

[mountain shadow]

ECM confirms this evening that the atlantic could well win this battle by next weekend.

We have strong agreement now tonight that heights are not going to retrogress towards Greenland. (though FI at this stage)

I have to say not a bad run for UK, esp the Southeast but for Ireland not great as we are last to see the cold and first to lose it.

We basically get 3 days of severe frost and bitter winds

Saying that, this would apply to all Easterly's, I guess we are more favoured for Northwesterly's.

Last night was EPIC, tonight is back to earth but still good charts

Ireland is a biggish island. I would be digging myself out if the ECM came off.

[Snowmad79]

You need to take the IMBY ism out of your posts, no one in the SE moans when you get a good run-

The ECM 240 moving onto 264 will show heights over Iceland just +VE enough to keep the trough disruption over the UK- the only real mild air is sadly for Ireland- the nearer you are to the continent the colder it is.

I will book you in for B&B at folkstone.....

S

And on that note I'd also like to recommend http://www.rightmove.co.uk/ ... People need to find a new place to live if they are so serious about fulfilling there snow cravings.