Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

[Alex95]

Its going to be very hard not to compare this with the last severe cold spell (Nov/Dec 2010), but that has virtually no chance of being beaten. It was truly biblical with 30-40cm in the populated areas, 80cm in parts of Northumberland, and a day of thundery snow showers on the 29th November.

Having said that, on New Year's Eve 2009 I don't think the charts were any better/worse than these, and some of you may remember how January 2010 turned out? 30cm in most eastern areas, as well as many other troughs, fronts, lows etc everywhere else.

Offshoot of an Atlantic low trying to move over England's snowfields at +216, with uppers below -5 that can only mean one thing!

We'll probably see a breakdown at +240, but considering that's the furthest reaches of the ECM's output that I can see I really don't care. The breakdown to December 2009's cold came as close as +72, but then a NE'ly was suddenly predicted and out came January 2010's severe cold and heavy snow, so there's no point in getting hung up over the precise details beyond +72, or many details at all beyond +168.

Edited December 6, 2012 by Alza

[danm]

The bottom line is we have ANOTHER excellent ECM run, importantly it's coming into the reliable timeframe.

[chris55]

the ECm at 192 over the UK shows the type of surface cold that breaks the -20c barrier.

-8c Uppers.

Snowcover ( where ? lots of places)

Dead still air-

-20c cold.....

The snow will come.

I'd have to cover up my Yuka if this run came off.......................

That's my replacement "palm tree" type plant that died in 2010 with the -18Cs in that month.

[Ian Brown]

Perhaps you'd prefer a bartlett set up?

I'm sure what Cumbria means is that if we take tonights runs at face value, then it does look dry for Western areas. Though obviously there are many runs to come and potential changes in the easterly flow.

[Snowy Easterlies]

Odd looking T192, I assume it will bring back the Atlantic by T216.

you said there was no way back for the atlantic a minute ago

[Ian Brown]

I would go for a SE blizzard at 216

S

Certainly still cold - OK - Atlantic at T240 !

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120612/ECH1-216.GIF?06-0

216

Heavy snow over the Uk from that kink ( in the middle )

VERTICAL advection in the atlantic- I bet the atlantic cant get in-

There could be a HUUGGEEE snowstorm at 240

S

[chris55]

216 block moving away, but good vertical WAA to the West and still cold for us, a whole plethora of options in the mid range, great model watching.

[Matty M]

The bottom line is that the strange chart occurs at T192hrs, before that we have great charts. sure the 168hrs is a stonker, the sudden change is dramatic and probably unlikely.

[Daniel Miller]

If one more person moans about snow potential, I think they should have a temporary ban. They are posts that keep clogging up the thread when it has been made perfectly clear that precipitation is perhaps the hardest thing to forecast, especially at this range, and the majority of the time it will crop up in the short term. The cold must come first! Jesus....

[Ian Brown]

you said there was no way back for the atlantic a minute ago

I did, because I think if we get to the ECM position at T144 it will be unlikely to evolve in the way that it ends up doing. But we have to accept that both of the big models want to crank up the Atlantic later on.

[Methuselah]

Why are so many folks getting all antsy about shortwave features that not only change with each-and-every run, but haven't even happened yet?

We still don't know when and where it'll snow tonight, yet!

[jessandjon]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120612/ECH1-216.GIF?06-0

216

Heavy snow over the Uk from that kink ( in the middle )

VERTICAL advection in the atlantic- I bet the atlantic cant get in-

There could be a HUUGGEEE snowstorm at 240

S

Anything in the southwest? Still can't work the charts!

[Bristawl Si]

Ian Fergie just finished on our local Beeb - hint of a South West attack from midweek onwards next week!

Up against entrenched cold by then, of course! Not exactly how he put it but u get the gist!

Edited December 6, 2012 by Bristle boy

[stainesbloke]

Cold, sunny and snowless, yawn

Still WAY better than overcast, windy and mild.

[BARRY]

Anything in the southwest? Still can't work the charts!

If we get a S eastly all hell could break loose

[nick sussex]

It all looks very complex past 168hrs, but very interesting.

As SM mentions the slack flow, snow cover could lead to some extremely low night time temps.

Regarding the Atlantic returning, it might do but at what angle, the ECM 240hrs throws in another snow event for good measure!

[SouthPennine88]

I did, because I think if we get to the ECM position at T144 it will be unlikely to evolve in the way that it ends up doing. But we have to accept that both of the big models want to crank up the Atlantic later on.

Certainly something to look out for over the next few days, but I wouldn't be bothering about 10-14 days away given what we could get after day 4 or so!

240 seems to show the Atlantic back off a little again

[BristolBaggie]

Great TV forecast by Ian ferguson on our BBC local news just. By next Tuesday possible low pressure heading up from the SW with snow but he did say some way off.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120612/ECH1-240.GIF?06-0

And the final chart-

Snow in the SW moving East-

Tonights ECm is as good as last nights- exciting ensemble prospects.....

S

[IDO]

Great TV forecast by Ian ferguson on our BBC local news just. By next Tuesday possible low pressure heading up from the SW with snow but he did say some way off.

What model is showing a SW attack by next Tuesday?

[TEITS]

yes better than watching all of the eastern areas getting plastered with the west getting literally no snow at all.

I missed out on much of the snowfall during the Nov/Dec 2010 cold spell but I was still pleased others witnessed heavy snowfalls.

Sorry but I really cannot tolerate your petty attitude!

This thread reminds me so much of 2009, 2010 cold spells because prior to those we had the same "it looks dry" comments and look what happened.

[iowpompeylee]

As long as the cold is locked in...which it will be...then the snow will look after itself.another big step in the right direction today :-)

[Snowman.]

Well the ECM looks less colder the yesterdays but a whole lot more snowier in a balanced perspective!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

I missed out on much of the snowfall during the Nov/Dec 2010 cold spell but I was still pleased others witnessed heavy snowfalls.

Sorry but I really cannot tolerate your petty attitude!

This thread reminds me so much of 2009, 2010 cold spells because prior to those we had the same "it looks dry" comments and look what happened.

"missed out on much of the snowfall", i missed out on all of it mate and always do when its coming from an easterly direction.