Far North of England Regional Discussion

[Summer Sun]

Now looking like 2 bands of snow will cross the region band 1 will arrive late tomorrow night and clear during the early hours before band 2 arrives early Monday morning and lasts most of the day

[Isolated Frost]

Some superb cloud formations, lots of sunshine and blue skies, and the odd snow/sleet/hail shower- it's not been a bad day!

[Alex95]

Light snow now with a bit of grauple mixed in there.

[Geordiesnow]

You got to laugh because the GFS is moving the front even quicker now and the mild sector is coming more into play.

Amazing how little changes could make a big difference between something insignificant and something significant.

[Isolated Frost]

GFS moves things further north and east. End result- more marginality expected on Monday, heavier snow expected on Tuesday.

[Snowmaggedon]

According to the initial reactions on the Model Discussion threads, the snow potential has been upgraded for out region in the GFS

[Isolated Frost]

I must say I preferred the GFS 06z suite. Less marginality- lower pressure on Tuesday onwards and a stronger NE/ENE flow, rather than a flow very close to a popping ridge.

[Alex95]

The mild sector is actually between the first and second front, so we might be ok. By Tuesday morning we'd have a fair few inches on the ground I'd have thought.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Alza

[Isolated Frost]

GFS 12z/6z difference (12z left, 6z right) in Durham

key (sea level pressure, 850hpa temp, 925hpa temp, 850-1000thickness)

Monday 0000

(1018mb, -6c, -3c, 1286dm) / (1018mb, -6c, -3c, 1286dm)

Monday 0600

(1013mb, -4c, -1c, 1292dm) / (1013mb, -5c, -2c, 1292dm)

Monday 1200

(1009mb, -5c, -2c, 1292dm) / (1010mb, -7c, -4c, 1286dm)

Monday 1800

(1006mb, -6c, -2c, 1292dm) / (1008mb, -8c, -4c, 1280dm)

That's why I think the 12z is a notable downgrade.

[Isolated Frost]

Btw I would like to note- downgrade for Monday.. afterward it seems pretty similar (maybe less snow on Tues/Weds, more on Thurs/Fri)

[Geordiesnow]

Btw I would like to note- downgrade for Monday.. afterward it seems pretty similar (maybe less snow on Tues/Weds, more on Thurs/Fri)

UKMO is much better for Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday I'm pleased to say, looks a little better upper air temps wise on Monday also.

[Alex95]

Overall the 12z is still a cracker though, and I would still go for snow at most levels. When the GFS shows the freezing level as 200m or below we usually see snow, although that is clearly an unscientific way of looking at it. 850s of -4 would still deliver snow if there was enough surface cold.

The GFS has a freezing level of over 600m for a time in the far SE on Monday - that's causing mayhem in the model thread!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Alza

[Continental Climate]

A good chart but lets hope it dosent sink anymore south or just freezing cold for us http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013011212/UN96-21.GIF?12-17!!

[Alex95]

If you are in Newcastle is would be wise to look at you're lamppost now, but don't get too excited as it isn't very heavy

Edited January 12, 2013 by Alza

[Isolated Frost]

UKMO fax at 48 moves everything a touch east from todays 0z- slightly better than NMM and GFS, not as good as NAE.

[doggy123]

Few showers starting to form off the north Yorkship coast, not to much though... any hope of a dusting tonight in tyne and wear?

[Summer Sun]

Just saw the beebs forecast my self temperatures OUT WEST begin to recover no word or hint of it turning milder anywhere else

This is how things look later on Monday as band 2 starts to clear away

NE England folk don't worry we get hit TWICE on late sunday and into Monday and again during most of Monday from a prolonged and heavier spell of snow

[Isolated Frost]

Larvely.

[Andy_]

Larvely.

What weather model do those meteograms get their data from?

[Isolated Frost]

What weather model do those meteograms get their data from?

Hi-resolution ECMWF Euro.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/durham#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358035200

Computer generated but looking SUPERB for Durham

[Isolated Frost]

Quite a few gritters ​out here tonight with the Ice warning in place.

[Andy_]

Hi-resolution ECMWF Euro.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/durham#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358035200

Computer generated but looking SUPERB for Durham

Met was forecasting all snow here too but now have added some sleet in too, hmm!

[Snowmaggedon]

Looking good for us then on Monday, any developments on the Tuesday snow event?

[Isolated Frost]

ECM has -6c uppers at midday Monday- just what we need.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[JP1972]

Any precip here in Newcastle still chiefly wet but with hail mixed in. Car thermometer shows 3c-4c which would indicate we're a long way from snow here.