Far North of England Regional Discussion

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Was hoping for a few of those showers out in the north sea to head our way tonight in the breeze, but they seem to be dying away once they get even so much as within 50 miles of the coast. They've been hovering there for the last few hours.

As for tomorrow & following few days, im keeping my fingers crossed for the tyne and wear area that we can notch up some respectable totals! Its going to take a bit of luck though with this warm sector, temporarily taking the uppers above -5 as it passes through! I wouldnt be suprised to see some rain at some point before a change back to snow, especially as the front seems to linger around the eastern coast!

[NickR]

The problem is that the warm sector coincides with the ppn! Looks like -4 and -3 uppers.

I have a bad feeling we're going to be wet/slushy at best while we see all those to our south in a winter wonderland. comes Monday afternoon.

If anyone can convince me otherwise, please do!

[Geordiesnow]

If the front lingers and we don't get too much of an easterly drift, the colder uppers during Monday should undercut the front and turning any rain back to snow you would of thought.

We may see a snow-sleet/rain/snow event on Monday although it depends on the position of that low, once the winds turn easterly, it should push that low back in again towards our region but it will be margina because the winds will be coming off the North Sea by then.

It does sound too good to be true having continious snow so it would not surprise me if there is going to be a bit of rain mixed in!

Edit: ECM/UKMO Nick! Seems more favourable hence the more favourable BBC forecasts. Despite what some people think, my negativity regarding the downgrades of this pathetic slack easterly flow could affect Monday may come true!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Geordiesnow

[tynevalleysnow]

Bbc weather just now said north east would bare brunt of the coming snow

[NickR]

Bbc weather just now said north east would bare brunt of the coming snow

He said it may be.

The graphics also looked much less snowy than previous graphics - more like a wintry mix.

[Alex95]

It looks a bit dodgy between 03:00 and 09:00 on Monday - I think we'll get a spell of wet snow, but that can make the difference between a good dump and a non event. I am confident of snow on Monday night and Tuesday though, and I'd be surprised if we don't get at least a couple of inches.

[JP1972]

The truth is, speaking for us in Tyne and Wear, we do best from a NE wind blowing convective showers onshore.

Not at all expecting anything at all from these fronts but happy to be proved wrong.

Just been out before and the car thermometer shows 3c. Now if that's the limit of the cold air from the east we're pretty much restricted to rain/sleet mixes.

[seabreeze86]

Just had a small snow shower here first of this cold spell, Monday looks very interesting going to be marginal in places for a time but as the cold digs back in behind the low it should be falling as snow but as ever in these situations its radar watching and looking out for posts from others in the region.

Good luck all lets hope we can make every one envious of our region like in 2010. Not by any stretch of the imagination is this like 2010 but its better than anything we had last year

[Alex95]

The truth is, speaking for us in Tyne and Wear, we do best from a NE wind blowing convective showers onshore.

Cant disagree there, and Tuesday and Wednesday could well deliver the goods in that department.

[Isolated Frost]

Forecasts are for rain and sleet for Sunderland on Monday on the MetO 5 dayer.

Sleet and wet snow on BBC.

[Darandio]

Just had a small snow shower here first of this cold spell,

Amazing, I haven't seen a flake from the same location.

Whereabouts are you? Obviously don't need to give out the direct location of course, but I am next to Kirkleatham, away from the coast,

[NickR]

Wet snow here though pretty much nothing showing on the radar.

[seabreeze86]

Amazing, I haven't seen a flake from the same location.

Whereabouts are you? Obviously don't need to give out the direct location of course, but I am next to Kirkleatham, away from the coast,

I live close to the town center it was a decent shower aswell lasted a good few mins. Did not settle though air temp way to high.

Nice to see another poster from Redcar

[Alex95]

Dry here, 1C.

[peterf]

I live close to the town center it was a decent shower aswell lasted a good few mins. Did not settle though air temp way to high.

Nice to see another poster from Redcar

keep an eye out to sea.

http://www.camsecure.co.uk/CoastwatchRedcarWebcam.html

[Geordiesnow]

Forecasts are for rain and sleet for Sunderland on Monday on the MetO 5 dayer.

Sleet and wet snow on BBC.

Sleet and wet snow on the BBC? Not the forecasts surely!

Oh dear if thats the case!

[Alex95]

Just had a brief grauple shower.

If the temperature doesn't drop soon even tomorrow evening will be marginal!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Alza

[Andy_]

The Met computerised forecasts may say sleet/snow but their text forecasts don't mention anything of the sort.

Sunday:

A mainly dry morning with some bright spells but very cold, then clouding over with snow moving in from the north and west later in the afternoon. Icy at times. Maximum Temperature 3 °C.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Snow across the region overnight, clearing early Monday but further snow later giving a covering. Icy. Thereafter, staying very cold with snow showers, icy patches and hard overnight frosts.

For my location, and anyone at a similar vicinity to the coast and similar height above sea level, I reckon its going to be snow on Sunday Night, before milder uppers move in and the snow turns wet and even to sleet for a time, by mid morning Monday i'd the marginality should be removed somewhat.

I think we've been in worse situations and still managed to get a decent amount of snow, so hopefully the mild sector isn't too penetrative to warm the surface temperatures too much, and you would think it's effects would be lessened by the time of day it arrives for us at like early morning.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Andy.

[JP1972]

I think I'll wait and see but from personal experience, I think temperatures need to drop by a good degree or three for any meaningful snow to fall and settle here.

Bearing in mind the cold air is supposed to be here now and it's not cold enough to snow, I very much doubt anything substantial or even noteworthy is on the horizon until the winds vere NE and we hopefully attraction some convection.

Easterly's are great for higher ground in the NE and for NY Moors southwards in my experience.

[Geordiesnow]

Just watch the latest forecast and it seems tonights potential event has upgraded whilst Monday shows the PPN may not even reach us but it looks mostly of snow too me but with 2C forecast for Newcastle now.

The morning's forecast and the UKMO/ECM 00Z runs will hopefully tell us a few more answers.

Edit: I suppose if people are worried about temps, remember they WILL fall in any PPN! so if the temp/dewpoint is 1C/0C then it may still turn to snow even if it starts as rain. As people have said, its a wait and see thing.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Geordiesnow

[Hagler]

The warm sector and rain on the back edge looked to be further south on the BBC forecast this morning.

The second band of snow for tomorrow also looked to push through a lot slower than first forecast.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Hagler

[Geordiesnow]

Slower? Just watched the latest forecast and it seems to arrive quicker too me, early Monday morning, the graphics show snow over us!

No doubt there be variations but I am getting that bit more confident we should be fine, its just going to be how much and how heavy the PPN will be I think.

[Snowmaggedon]

Slower? Just watched the latest forecast and it seems to arrive quicker too me, early Monday morning, the graphics show snow over us!

No doubt there be variations but I am getting that bit more confident we should be fine, its just going to be how much and how heavy the PPN will be I think.

. Which low land areas of the region will bear the brunt of tomorrow's snow?

[Geordiesnow]

. Which low land areas of the region will bear the brunt of tomorrow's snow?

Eastern side of the Pennines, perhaps the further South and East you are the better it will be I would of thought but its a case of watching the radar. Anyways, theres a possible snow event today which shows well on the forecasts, the fronts shows signs of stalling before weakening and fading away, don't expect too much from this front as its modeled to be the weaker of the two but with snow, PPN bands do tend to do stranger things than the norm.

I mean, who remember 12th Feb 2009, not one bit of snow was forecast from a warm front but it became occulded and there was some wave in the front which intensified it greatly on the eastern side of the pennines and left a good covering of snow if albeit it did turn back to rain on its back edge.

[Hagler]

Slower? Just watched the latest forecast and it seems to arrive quicker too me, early Monday morning, the graphics show snow over us!

No doubt there be variations but I am getting that bit more confident we should be fine, its just going to be how much and how heavy the PPN will be I think.

I meant it seemed to hang around longer than the last forecast I seen a couple of days back. Not the time it arrived.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Hagler