Far North of England Regional Discussion

[Snowmaggedon]

According to the latest weather warning put in place by the Met Office, the snow on Tuesday is not expected to be widespread for our region and it appears as if Teesside will miss out

[NickR]

According to the latest weather warning put in place by the Met Office, the snow on Tuesday is not expected to be widespread for our region and it appears as if Teesside will miss out

It's Saturday. If you think those weather warnings won't change before then or that the reality will exactly match what is shown you're daft.

[Snowmaggedon]

Haha I was thinking that, the BBC and Met Office does show snow over Teesside on Tuesday and Wednesday so maybe I shouldn't take everything for gospel

[Isolated Frost]

When you have charts like this at 72... even geordiesnow will be happy?!

Even the EC isn't all that bad.

Tuesday and Wednesday atm look very cold and showery from the NE/ENE, whilst Thursday builds a ridge, it would be snowy for the south of the region on the GFS 06z suite- whilst Friday would be pretty snowy on the GFS, though not on the ECM.

Hopefully a few upgrades that will de-progress the upper ridge and keep the energy going underneath it. Monday wise it looks very close atm, but veering on the side of snow, not rain.

[Isolated Frost]

Hail, sleet and snow shr just now.

[LomondSnowstorm]

When you have charts like this at 72... even geordiesnow will be happy?!

Even the EC isn't all that bad.

Tuesday and Wednesday atm look very cold and showery from the NE/ENE, whilst Thursday builds a ridge, it would be snowy for the south of the region on the GFS 06z suite- whilst Friday would be pretty snowy on the GFS, though not on the ECM.

Hopefully a few upgrades that will de-progress the upper ridge and keep the energy going underneath it. Monday wise it looks very close atm, but veering on the side of snow, not rain.

I think we could all do with a bit of a westward shift with the front coming in a bit more slowly to allow the cold air to get embedded at the surface between the easterly flow and the front coming in. It's looking a bit too close for comfort here too, certainly for the west it isn't looking all that great, but still time for a few upgrades at least between now and then.

[Isolated Frost]

I think we could all do with a bit of a westward shift with the front coming in a bit more slowly to allow the cold air to get embedded at the surface between the easterly flow and the front coming in. It's looking a bit too close for comfort here too, certainly for the west it isn't looking all that great, but still time for a few upgrades at least between now and then.

Indeed- a westward shift of about ~100-150mi would probably give snow to much of Central and Eastern Scotland quite easily, as well as lowland NE England. The flow appears to be W/SW for much of Monday, which will hold off the onshore breeze for much of the day, and uppers stay colder than -5c 850s. I know in Scotland, the warm sector is more pronounced early on with some -3c 850s in the circulation- hopefully the NAE and NMM have got this one.

Latest regional forecast positive:

Headline:

Cold. A little rain or sleet at times.

Today:

Mostly cloudy, although with bright spells developing, and with some occasional showery rain or sleet in some areas; perhaps a little snow in places later. The rather brisk, cold southeasterly wind will continue. Maximum Temperature 4 °C.

Tonight:

A few sleet or snow showers, mostly in the east of the region, and tending to die out later. Frost developing quite widely, along with some locally icy conditions. Minimum Temperature -2 °C.

Sunday:

Perhaps a few wintry showers near the coast early Sunday. Some bright intervals before thickening cloud brings snow to the north and west of the region late in the day. Maximum Temperature 3 °C.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

More general snow on Monday, then rather brighter Tuesday and Wednesday with sunny intervals and snow showers. Very cold with hard overnight frosts.

Issued at: 0400 on Sat 12 Jan 2013

[Geordiesnow]

When you have charts like this at 72... even geordiesnow will be happy?!

Yes Arjan, that chart at least on paper is a an easterners delight, pressure is lower, and theres clealy more instability on that chart so I expect more in the way of shower activity.

Its interesting the UKMO makes more of that front coming into the West on Sunday night than the GFS does, but it shows how much the easterly drift has sadly downgraded when you have got a chance of some snowfall coming in from the North and West on Sunday night, Sunday had the higher risk of snowfall in the East, but now its Cumbria looks more likely to get snowfall!

As LS says though, I would of liked a bit more cold air flooding in and it shame a few minor changes had appeared to of changed it, I just want a little bit more room for error thats all but off shore winds will certainly help for sure! Its a wait and see process, BBC/UKMO seem highly confident but their upper air temperature charts always seem colder than the GFS/ECM charts though, not sure which model is the most accurate but its something to bear in mind. Also of course, with frontal bands coming in from the West/North West, its uncertain how the PPN will behave in crossing the hills, I just hope the BBC graphics in the short term don't have any bands of PPN "jumping" over our region!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

i actually dont think im going to see a snow flake, bbc graphics have rain for west cumbria

[Isolated Frost]

I agree that it's a shame that the current easterly has been downgraded so, but it's still very nippy and there is a good chance of a few snow shrs.

When it comes to the Monday frontal snow- current predictions state that through the UK, the regions that will struggle is W/SW Scotland, NE Scotland, NW England, Wales, SW England. N, C, E/SE Scotland, W Midlands and NE England are about on the borderline atm, with Yorkshire/E England/SE England the areas that should be all snow.

Monday looks indeed snowy though, and with the way the bands are progressing it could well be snow on Sunday night and then another bit of snow on Monday night- before the more convective E'ly flow moves in on Tuesday-

here's hoping that one upgrades instead- it has doubtless potential for some more organised sunshine and snow showers, mainly for E Scotland, NE England, Yorkshire and Lincs and E Anglia especially.

[Snowmaggedon]

When you say it's borderline for the NE, do you mean it's borderline for the more Western parts of the region or for all of the region?

[Geordiesnow]

I suppose its radar watching from now on I suppose but today so far is kind of going how I expected really, I had a feeling the UKMO over done the shower activity somewhat and that looks to be the case.

Because the easterly flow is so shortlived, I doubt we will get much tonight and even the BBC forecasts seem to show that, I guess we just have to wait from Sunday night onwards too see what happens, its now certainly the case of watching the radar now.

[Isolated Frost]

When you say it's borderline for the NE, do you mean it's borderline for the more Western parts of the region or for all of the region?

Any precip before 3am Monday should be snow, for anywhere in the region (NE, not Cumbria), whilst after 9am Monday it should all be snow... problem is, most the precip is falling between 3am and 9am Monday...

[Snowstorm1]

Any precip before 3am Monday should be snow, for anywhere in the region (NE, not Cumbria), whilst after 9am Monday it should all be snow... problem is, most the precip is falling between 3am and 9am Monday...

Coldest part of the day and when did it become marginal the way they been talking on model output thread it has hardly been mentioned?!

[Isolated Frost]

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Middlesbrough/forecast.pdf

Hi-res EC looks very positive for Boro, check meteogram in link-

[seabreeze86]

More showers getting going in the north sea now, but the dew points are to high moment so will probs be rain for me on the coast

[Alex95]

Coldest part of the day and when did it become marginal the way they been talking on model output thread it has hardly been mentioned?!

It's always looked marginal for the North East I'm afraid, but I'll still be surprised if we get nothing at all.

[Andy_]

Any precip before 3am Monday should be snow, for anywhere in the region (NE, not Cumbria), whilst after 9am Monday it should all be snow... problem is, most the precip is falling between 3am and 9am Monday...

Met has heaviest precip after 12 on Monday for here With a dry slot between 3 and 9 lmfao, I can tell this is going to be a 'see what happens on the day'

[Cloud 10]

More showers getting going in the north sea now, but the dew points are to high moment so will probs be rain for me on the coast

Those dew-points should be dropping below freezing in the next few hours.

Had some sleety showers here so far with a bit of hail thrown in.

[Geordiesnow]

It's always looked marginal for the North East I'm afraid, but I'll still be surprised if we get nothing at all.

To be fair the UKMO looks less marginal, if the UKMO uppers were like the GFS/ECM, it will be interesting too see what the BBC forecasts will show, I'll have another look at the UKMO uppers when the 12Z run comes out.

Regarding this afternoon/tonight, there is the potential for a couple of snow showers coming in off the North Sea, you can see the speckle cloud in the North sea but there is a lot of other higher based cloud flying around so its far from a clear easterly flow, but if these showers do make it before pressure rises completely/the easterly flow is cut off, then any showers could stick around for a while due to a lack of wind but I think the MO predictions of 5CM on hills looks a little far fetched.

[pnepaul]

i actually dont think im going to see a snow flake, bbc graphics have rain for west cumbria

I don't wish to depress you even more but the Mountain weather information service forecast for Monday states ( for the Lake District) freezing level at 300m maybe 600m in the west

[Isolated Frost]

MeteoGroup prediction.

[Snowmaggedon]

MeteoGroup prediction.

. That suggests the more South and East you are in the region, the more snow you will get

[Isolated Frost]

. That suggests the more South and East you are in the region, the more snow you will get

Roughly so but estimates are very similar in Newcastle, or in Middlesbrough.

[Alex95]

The North Sea is waking up now, hopefully we will get a sprinkling over night before the showers die back before dawn.