Far North of England Regional Discussion

[Andy_]

Brilliant easterly flow in place on Wednesday

Now that would give some convection! Uppers sub -8 and pressure 1010ish

[Isolated Frost]

Yum.

[Geordiesnow]

Looks like 1-2mb lower pressure accompanied by 1-2c higher 850s for Sunday- nothing at all wrong with that.

That 1-2C higher 850 for Sunday night into Monday morning could be the difference between rain/sleet and snow, mind you, I guess you could say perhaps the GFS is slightly overdoing the eastern extent of the low?

Not sure if you noticed Arjan but the mild sector is a bit bigger on this run at 06Z Monday morning than the 12Z run. Just something to watch out for.

[Isolated Frost]

What strikes me as interesting is that if we nudge on the right side of the shortwave on Monday, we could well see roughly 72 hours of continuous (or thereabouts) snowfall, frontal and convective. Obviously my underlying interesting is in the convection on Tuesday and Wednesday- but the frontal activity that is moving south-eastwards now becomes top watch for me- the FAXes in a while will be noted-

EC, UKMO, GEM and GFS agreeing on a cold E flow mid-week, plenty of convection

[Isolated Frost]

That 1-2C higher 850 for Sunday night into Monday morning could be the difference between rain/sleet and snow, mind you, I guess you could say perhaps the GFS is slightly overdoing the eastern extent of the low?

Not sure if you noticed Arjan but the mild sector is a bit bigger on this run at 06Z Monday morning than the 12Z run. Just something to watch out for.

18z (top) seems to be fairly similar at 06z?

[Geordiesnow]

Must be my eyes playing tricks on me but the gap between the -5hpa line on the WZ looked marginally bigger on the 18Z than the 12Z all because the air was just not as cold as the 12Z run, but on those charts it seems the 12Z has actually got a slightly larger mild sector!

[Alex95]

I'd be surprised if we don't get a dusting of snow on Saturday night, although I doubt we'll see much more than that. The problem with Monday's event is that frontal snowfall often disappoints in the NE, either with it being too marginal or a lack of precipitation. I wouldn't get too excited over Tuesday or Wednesday just yet as there's too much time for it to go wrong, but things are looking very good at the moment for some significant snowfall.

If everything goes to plan we could well be looking at 10-15cm this week, but it doesn't look like being on par with 2010 at the moment.

Sorry if that post sounded a bit downbeat, it shouldn't do as this looks like being the most interesting week in the last 25 months in terms of snow.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Alza

[damianslaw]

NE is in a prime spot for snow prospects over the next few days, no worries about marginal dewpoints etc. Saturday night into Sunday morning could see a number of heavy snow showers developing so I suspect a number of spots could wake up to a nice white blanket on Sunday morning. Here on the other side of the Pennines we will have to wait until Sunday evening, I think away from southern and western coastal parts much of Cumbria should see some decent snowfall with evaporative cooling helping immensely thanks to the central fells which really do help to intensify precipitation and keep dewpoints low. I think there may be slightly warmer uppers behind the front for a very short while but not long lasting enough to produce a thaw, and by Tuesday the low uppers will be back anyway so hopefully we should see at least 2/3 days of snow cover.

Looking forward to following this thread over the next few days - suspect there will be alot of action, more so than the NW thread where there is a much greater chance for dissapointment. Far N England is usually a much more harmonious place..

[Snowstorm1]

I'd be surprised if we don't get a dusting of snow on Saturday night, although I doubt we'll see much more than that. The problem with Monday's event is that frontal snowfall often disappoints in the NE, either with it being too marginal or a lack of precipitation. I wouldn't get too excited over Tuesday or Wednesday just yet as there's too much time for it to go wrong, but things are looking very good at the moment for some significant snowfall.

If everything goes to plan we could well be looking at 10-15cm this week, but it doesn't look like being on par with 2010 at the moment.

Sorry if that post sounded a bit downbeat, it shouldn't do as this looks like being the most interesting week in the last 25 months in terms of snow.

Alza get ready for 5cm on saturday night while here in teesside i be feeling lucky with a dusting haha only kidding mate :') wont be on tomorrow night either as out a party might post when home if not too drunk haha

[Isolated Frost]

Alza- that assessment seems about fair- but I'd probably say the frontal snowfall looks more likely to do something than the convective atm-

the mild sector remains a doubt but the METO seems to disagree with it.

Tuesday and Wednesday have so much potential but remain FI for now.

[Alex95]

The 00z GFS has given us an upgrade - heavy snow Monday, then heavy snow showers Tuesday - Saturday morning!

As the details for Monday firm up it looks as though we will get some light snow on sunday night, then some heavy precipitation on Monday as the main front moves through, so if we stay on the right side of marginal we could get a couple of inches. I have known us to do well out of frontal situations, so whilst being cautious I am quite optimistic.

The GFS was incredible this morning as we keep the convective easterly right through until Saturday morning, so that's over 120 hours of heavy snow if you include Monday. The ECM is a bit more sensible, but we'd still get some heavy snow on Tuesday/Wednesday, whilst the UKMO looks very good to me for a prolonged spell of North Sea show showers.

All to play for this week, and a convective easterly often gives 2-4 inches per day, so it looks a pretty good week coming up!

[Rollo]

Light sleet shower here at 9-30 but nothing much showing up on the radar at present. Currently 2.3c with the wind slowly increasing from the SE.

[stormchaser1]

Morning Everyone ,

Light snow showers here in Gosforth , on and off since 0915 this morning , clouds increasing from the North East its looking good

[Alex95]

Just sleet here at the minute.

[Snowstorm1]

Snow tonight still possible or not?

[Rollo]

Certainly possible shoud the showers continue overnight, we have also has some more sleet Alza and the temperature continues to rise-now 2.6c but the cold uppers should be arriving.

[stormchaser1]

Certainly possible shoud the showers continue overnight, we have also has some more sleet Alza and the temperature continues to rise-now 2.6c but the cold uppers should be arriving.

Good morning Rollo , long time no speak hows things hope your well

[Rollo]

Hi Nigel,Nice to hear from you,I was thinking you may have left the North-East and perhaps returned to the midlands to see your beloved WBA( they certainly are doing well under Steve Clarke)-wasn't he an assistant at Newcastle years ago. Health wise have not been si good but am looking forward to the next 8 weeks of weather-should be good. Perhaps we can meet sometime,all the best and a Happy New Year,Mike.

[Continental Climate]

well not much on the radar at present!! When is it all due to kick off in the NE probably not until after midnight i would say then it will probably be light flurries, monday, tuesday and wed look good though after that it will probably quieten down with some frost but we just manage to keep the cold uppers over us then a renewed attack from the east next weekend, thats my take on things

[peterf]

steady sleety mix here,nothing showing on the radar though?

[Continental Climate]

maybe showers beginning to pep up on the radar now

[Andy_]

Sleeting here again, had quite a few showers this morning of a wintry nature

[Continental Climate]

bbc weather is really rubbish just checked it out it has the region with nothing apart from an hour of light rain tonite then nothing until tommorrow evening when forecast light snow, yet lots of people have reported wintry showers so far

[Alex95]

Just had some proper snow from that last shower

Edited January 12, 2013 by Alza

[Isolated Frost]

Sleeting moderately here.