North West England Regional Thread

[cheshire snow]

Wont the Irish sea have an effect on our region though, as I posted earlier I'm just thinking it will be cold for us

No not with -9 uppers over the region,sit back and enjoy

C.S

[SparkleS]

Posted 36 minutes ago

Latest from Matt Hugo

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

Haha! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif … Anyone else's brain about to explode or is it just me. I can't remember such a period of volatility in the models

[Jan]

No, winds will be from the east meaning their will be no modification on the temperatures, we'll be feeding on cold, continental air.

In terms of precipitation; they're in the form of fronts meeting the cold air (battlegrounds).

Unfortunately there doesn't look like being much 'oomph' left in these fronts by the time they reach us, so any snow looks like being light at this stage.

As I thought, oh well I may get snowed in at work again, ooh no thanks........ sleeping in the canteen not my idea of fun

[chicken soup]

Cant believe were gonna miss out yet again....utterly sickening.

[cheshire snow]

Cant believe were gonna miss out yet again....utterly sickening.

Without been rude

i would check the models again,might not be to good for Saturday,but Monday has excelent potential,

for now all FI but lets see where we are this time tomorrow

C.S

Edited January 8, 2013 by cheshire snow

[Snow free zone]

Hello again SFZ , Hi Sparkle (I work in Leyland btw)

I do wonder if the model thread would be quite as populated if the NW corner was the bullseye of the anticipated snowfest...

Hello too SD. Have you bought your ticket for the annual rollercoaster ride. After one and a half almost snowless winters we are due a dusting here but as usual living where we do i don't actually take the charts at face value untill i actually see snow falling. Anything is an improvement on what we've had over Christmas though.

[chicken soup]

Without been rude

i would check the models again,might not be to good for Saturday,but Monday has excelent potential,

for now all FI but lets see where we are this time tomorrow

C.S

Its just the thought of everyone else enjoying a snowfest, except us, always seems to happen every winter, monday is looking good at mo but will inevitably be downgraded.

[SparkleS]

Well its certainly feeling colder out there already, here's hoping snows on the way!

[cheshire snow]

Its just the thought of everyone else enjoying a snowfest, except us, always seems to happen every winter, monday is looking good at mo but will inevitably be downgraded.

Quite possible the GFS and ECM do downgrade,infact i would say the 18z will be downgraded(slightly)

however the possitive is now cross model agreement between the big three.

i agree we seem to struggle when it comes to snow,and we have to watch everyone else get a plastering

it really is sickining,however every dog has its day,or so they say LOL.

C.S

[Snow free zone]

Was good to see some brightness to the West tonight coming home, quite a noticable clearance behind the cloud bank. Just put the bins out and it does feel much colder, you can even see stars tonight.

[feb1991blizzard]

I was going to start speculating on what we need on the next runs to happen and what might constitute an upgrade in December and.......

So i am not going to bother this time yet, another 48 hours and i will do some objective posts regarding snow specific to this region - IF there is no sudden downgrade of course!!!

[Ian Brown]

Quite possible the GFS and ECM do downgrade,infact i would say the 18z will be downgraded(slightly)

however the possitive is now cross model agreement between the big three.

i agree we seem to struggle when it comes to snow,and we have to watch everyone else get a plastering

it really is sickining,however every dog has its day,or so they say LOL.

C.S

We will first have to see if the models hold firm, but we know that these sorts of set-ups - southerly tracking lows, easterlies etc.. don't favour the region for snow.

[cheshire snow]

And the good news the EC ENS are in agreement

C.S

[cheshire snow]

We will first have to see if the models hold firm, but we know that these sorts of set-ups - southerly tracking lows, easterlies etc.. don't favour the region for snow.

Yes Ian i agree

however we all know these events come down to a now cast situation

C.S

[Jan]

Lamp posts at the ready.....or not

Edited January 8, 2013 by Jan

[iand61]

We will first have to see if the models hold firm, but we know that these sorts of set-ups - southerly tracking lows, easterlies etc.. don't favour the region for snow.

Tbh the majority of this region has seen a downgrade on snow potential for Saturday since this mornings runs and they were looking bad enough for thoughts of suicide for many in the model thread.

At the moment it is still looking decent for areas south of Manchester, Liverpool etc and there is always a chance of a Norherly push on the system but there is also a possibility of it moving even further South with all of us ending up watching the fun from our own green little world.

[Ian Brown]

Tbh the majority of this region has seen a downgrade on snow potential for Saturday since this mornings runs and they were looking bad enough for thoughts of suicide for many in the model thread.

At the moment it is still looking decent for areas south of Manchester, Liverpool etc and there is always a chance of a Norherly push on the system but there is also a possibility of it moving even further South with all of us ending up watching the fun from our own green little world.

That is what I would expect to happen, I would think areas around Birmingham and the Cotswolds will be the places to be.

[iand61]

That is what I would expect to happen, I would think areas around Birmingham and the Cotswolds will be the places to be.

You should do ok Ian, for the rest of us though it may be a longer wait although I think we will join in the fun at some stage.

How much and when is anyone's guess but with such a volatile period ahead we could end up doing better than expected.

[cheshire snow]

Last one from me tonight

GFS 18Z carbon copy of the 12z so far

night all

happy snow dreams

C.S

[UV-RAY]

We will first have to see if the models hold firm, but we know that these sorts of set-ups - southerly tracking lows, easterlies etc.. don't favour the region for snow.

Indeed Ian, the winter of 78/79 was the exception. Lets hope it doesn't turn out to be a frustrating time for us in the NW.

[SnowObsessor90]

Oh dear the 18z ensembles don't look too good. Feel free to inform how the models are looking in the morning as I'm fearful of venturing anywhere near that MOD thread in event that things end up going completely bottom up again.

[Backtrack]

Oh dear the 18z ensembles don't look too good. Feel free to inform how the models are looking in the morning as I'm fearful of venturing anywhere near that MOD thread in event that things end up going completely bottom up again.

Right now with solid cross model agreement including all minor models INCLUDING the MOGREPS, the GFS 18z ensembles do not worry me, especially with such a solid set of ECM ensembles.

This is happening.

[feb1991blizzard]

Right now with solid cross model agreement including all minor models INCLUDING the MOGREPS, the GFS 18z ensembles do not worry me, especially with such a solid set of ECM ensembles.

This is happening.

I honestly would not be celebrating just yet, if it was the 12z GEFS against the ECM ens then yes but because its a later starting point and the op is an outlier, i have a bad feeling about this, if i am wrong by tommorow night i will come on here and admit, i am not saying its game over for a cold spell just the weekend snow potential is a lot less than people are making out, and i still have grave concerns going forward, far from nailed IMO, still good teleconnections in the long range, less confidence in the MR 10 days (ish) than before the GEFS 18Z came out and little confidence in any snow for this region the weekend

Edited January 9, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[SnowObsessor90]

Right now with solid cross model agreement including all minor models INCLUDING the MOGREPS, the GFS 18z ensembles do not worry me, especially with such a solid set of ECM ensembles.

This is happening.

As shown in your Avatar (or whatever you want to call it) even a certain Stewart Rampling seemed confident enough about a cold spell occurring back in early December and we all know how that one turned out so what's to say it'll end up being any different this time around?

[SparkleS]

Foggeeeeeeeeeee!!!!

Im hoping in a few days time i can say

Snoweeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!