North West England Regional Thread

[feb1991blizzard]

Foggeeeeeeeeeee!!!!

Im hoping in a few days time i can say

Snoweeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!

Unfortunately, i very much doubt you are, as per my fears, exactly the same as december, you can just see the margin for error getting smaller with each run, there is just an overriding feature which is leaving enough residual energy in the jet to bugar everything up.

[feb1991blizzard]

We are still in there by the skin of our teeth but losing margin for error every run, the -8 uppers stay over our region for less time on the ECM 0z, i will be fearing the worse on the 12z though if the 6z GFS goes the way of the 0z, on a brighter note the GEFS 0z were better than the 18z, knife edge stuff but more particularly for our region.

[Weather-history]

Fog

Anyone else note the lack of a notable gale this winter thus far?

[trickydicky]

Fog

Anyone else note the lack of a notable gale this winter thus far?

No, 28th/29th of December in Cumbria was very windy indeed.

Frost on cars this morning in Longridge.

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM has turned into a rip - snorter for our region. -6 upper or lower all the way and mostly -8c!!!

[cfallon]

ECM has turned into a rip - snorter for our region. -6 upper or lower all the way and mostly -8c!!!

It's certainly looking good! Roll on the weekend

[cheshire cat]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Looking good for Saturday, here in the south of the region, ie Mcr southward

Nae to watch around thurs

Edited January 9, 2013 by cheshire cat

[feb1991blizzard]

It's certainly looking good! Roll on the weekend

Ive still got a nagging doubt at the back of my mind but the good thing now is we are getting near so if the next 24 hours of runs dont collapse the block and continue the ECM signal then we are there!!!, still nervous as the 0z GFS signal was strikingly similar to the december failure as were a lot of the 18 GEFS, lets hope!!

EDIT : BBC nor met are buying into snow going anywhere near our region in any quantity the weekend.

Edited January 9, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[UV-RAY]

I feel any snow will be well to the South of us come weekend, in these sort of set ups everything seems to get shunted South nearer the time. Next week could be our turn though if the ECM verifies.

[feb1991blizzard]

I feel any snow will be well to the South of us come weekend, in these sort of set ups everything seems to get shunted South nearer the time. Next week could be our turn though if the ECM verifies.

I have to agree with this, i would take a downgrade now with everything missing us to the south if it means an upgrade in the longer term.

[NickyB]

Ooh how nice to have to scrape some ice from the car this morning :-) a rather cool 3 here this morning.

[feb1991blizzard]

Fog

Anyone else note the lack of a notable gale this winter thus far?

P - souper here, thats another thing i dont seem to see as often these days.

[snowdrifter]

Quick post from me - like others here I'm not expecting any snow for the vast majority of the NW in the short term, but am v v open to surprises. The current and projected set-up is not in our favour. BUT who really knows what the next 2-3 weeks will bring us if uber-cold sets in everwhere...

[Snow free zone]

Again the differences over a few miles. Foggy with no frost in Preston this morning, 10 miles up the motorway its clear with quite a frost on the grass and cars, much colder up here as well.

[davacr123]

Was cold enough here last night for ice on cars and paths not what was forecast at all so shows how much problems they are having at the min

[James M]

Well at least there was some interesting weather here for a change! frost and thick fog!

[Backtrack]

Thick fog and around 0C this morning, makes a change.

Still foggy, and according to the iPhone weather app, it's still 0C out there. Should really have turned my station on - thought it'd be sunny today to be honest. :lol:

[Snow free zone]

Time to get the tin hat on and get ready to dodge those toys .......... they're coming.

Not a good 6z GFS run, but it is only one of a number of potential outcomes. Said last night I won't believe it is going to snow untill I actually see it snowing.

[dodge]

Well at least it's colder today, they got that bit right so far.

I feel I will be too far north for the southerly tracking low on Saturday and then probably too far west for any easterly showers feeding in after that. Still hopefully our turn will come sometime during next week if the models remain consistent to what they are showing so far.

[Jan]

My car was iced up earlier and the grass and roofs round about where covered with a frost. It was sunny and clear when I walked the dog before now a fog/mist has developed it looks quite gloomy out there.

[weathersupremacy]

METO site showing light snow for Buxton and Edale on Friday night.

I wonder if we will see further upgrades into the region.

Edited January 9, 2013 by weathersupremacy

[trickydicky]

My other/better/worse half gets Met Office email alerts when any unusual/extreme weather is on the way, usually about flooding. She's just forwared it on to me, its for the North West area:

"The benign start to 2013 is, alas, coming to an end as we head towards the weekend.

Over the past few days there has been considerable online chatter surrounding the increased risk of wintry conditions affecting the UK in the coming days as a direct result of developments taking place in the high atmosphere. A phenomenon known as a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ (SSW) is, at this moment, in full swing. More on this phenomenon and its effects on our weather can be gleaned by recourse to the official Met Office News Blog http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/ which includes an interview with one of our leading climate scientists Adam Scaife who explains the phenomenon in ‘layman’s terms’. I would advise you – it took me two or three goes to fully understand/appreciate what he was saying but don’t let that put the more determined amongst you off. For those without the time or willpower, the gist of the message is that when these SSWs occur, they greatly increase the risk of cold air outbreaks across the UK as a result of the ‘blocking‘ weather patterns that they tend to induce. Typically, we start to see a meteorological set up whereby the airflow starts to come at us from a more N’ly or E’ly direction with the usual run of Atlantic weather systems halted, sometimes for a considerable period of time. We are now seeing a ‘slowing down’ in the Atlantic sequence and, as colder air feeds in across the UK over the coming days, so there will be an increased risk of some wintry weather occurring in various parts of the country.

The SSW phenomenon caused widespread ‘confusion’ amongst all the main weather forecast computer models, with the result that detail beyond a few days became impossible to predict reliably. There wasn’t even a clear consensus for a definite change to colder conditions. Hence the absence of any advance briefings until this morning. A somewhat clearer picture is, however, now emerging which I will endeavour to spell out below. The main emphasis in this initial briefing is the transition now taking place to gradually colder conditions. If there is one positive spin-off to what follows, it is the complete absence of words/phrases like ‘heavy, prolonged rainfall’ , ‘flooding’, ‘flood guidance statement’ and ‘surface water excess’.

GENERAL WEATHER SEQUENCE:

Today/tonight/tomorrow: No major issues – local fog and frost likely overnight and daytime temperatures tomorrow are liable to be surpressed (< 5C).

Friday through Saturday: No major issues at this stage, patchy rain later on Friday, overnight and into Saturday may turn to sleet/snow at times over the higher ground before clearing southwards on Saturday but little or no accumulation expected. Feeling cold and raw both days.

Sunday through Monday: By Sunday the cold air will be well established, although there should be some very welcome sunshine on offer after a fairly widespread overnight frost and the day itself looks to be generally dry. There is a low risk of a period of sleet and snow spreading southwards on Sunday night and early Monday which, if it came off, could result in some accumulation of snow, even to low levels away from the coast. Confidence in the track of this system and the extent of any snow is too low yet to warrant the issue of an Alert but it is something to keep in the back of your mind.

Beyond Monday and moving through next week: Staying cold with widespread overnight frosts, nocturnal temperatures perhaps dropping into the -5C to -10C range, especially where any snow is lying. Daytime temperatures most probably somewhere in the range 0C to +3C. Risk of a few snow showers, especially towards the Pennines, but a good deal of dry weather likely too.

WARNINGS/IMPACTS etc.

No warnings in force at present. Increasing risk of icy patches on untreated surfaces, especially Saturday night onwards.

A WORD OF CAUTION:

Around the onset of a cold spell such as the one we’re due to experience, detail beyond a couple of days can often prove elusive and the forecast can change markedly. Hence it’s best not to look too far in to the future, although I will try and give a general picture of where things seem to be heading for."

So there you go.

I wonder what they mean by "considerable online chatter", they might be watching us!

[davacr123]

My other/better/worse half gets Met Office email alerts when any unusual/extreme weather is on the way, usually about flooding. She's just forwared it on to me, its for the North West area:

"The benign start to 2013 is, alas, coming to an end as we head towards the weekend.

Over the past few days there has been considerable online chatter surrounding the increased risk of wintry conditions affecting the UK in the coming days as a direct result of developments taking place in the high atmosphere. A phenomenon known as a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ (SSW) is, at this moment, in full swing. More on this phenomenon and its effects on our weather can be gleaned by recourse to the official Met Office News Blog http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/ which includes an interview with one of our leading climate scientists Adam Scaife who explains the phenomenon in ‘layman’s terms’. I would advise you – it took me two or three goes to fully understand/appreciate what he was saying but don’t let that put the more determined amongst you off. For those without the time or willpower, the gist of the message is that when these SSWs occur, they greatly increase the risk of cold air outbreaks across the UK as a result of the ‘blocking‘ weather patterns that they tend to induce. Typically, we start to see a meteorological set up whereby the airflow starts to come at us from a more N’ly or E’ly direction with the usual run of Atlantic weather systems halted, sometimes for a considerable period of time. We are now seeing a ‘slowing down’ in the Atlantic sequence and, as colder air feeds in across the UK over the coming days, so there will be an increased risk of some wintry weather occurring in various parts of the country.

The SSW phenomenon caused widespread ‘confusion’ amongst all the main weather forecast computer models, with the result that detail beyond a few days became impossible to predict reliably. There wasn’t even a clear consensus for a definite change to colder conditions. Hence the absence of any advance briefings until this morning. A somewhat clearer picture is, however, now emerging which I will endeavour to spell out below. The main emphasis in this initial briefing is the transition now taking place to gradually colder conditions. If there is one positive spin-off to what follows, it is the complete absence of words/phrases like ‘heavy, prolonged rainfall’ , ‘flooding’, ‘flood guidance statement’ and ‘surface water excess’.

GENERAL WEATHER SEQUENCE:

Today/tonight/tomorrow: No major issues – local fog and frost likely overnight and daytime temperatures tomorrow are liable to be surpressed (< 5C).

Friday through Saturday: No major issues at this stage, patchy rain later on Friday, overnight and into Saturday may turn to sleet/snow at times over the higher ground before clearing southwards on Saturday but little or no accumulation expected. Feeling cold and raw both days.

Sunday through Monday: By Sunday the cold air will be well established, although there should be some very welcome sunshine on offer after a fairly widespread overnight frost and the day itself looks to be generally dry. There is a low risk of a period of sleet and snow spreading southwards on Sunday night and early Monday which, if it came off, could result in some accumulation of snow, even to low levels away from the coast. Confidence in the track of this system and the extent of any snow is too low yet to warrant the issue of an Alert but it is something to keep in the back of your mind.

Beyond Monday and moving through next week: Staying cold with widespread overnight frosts, nocturnal temperatures perhaps dropping into the -5C to -10C range, especially where any snow is lying. Daytime temperatures most probably somewhere in the range 0C to +3C. Risk of a few snow showers, especially towards the Pennines, but a good deal of dry weather likely too.

WARNINGS/IMPACTS etc.

No warnings in force at present. Increasing risk of icy patches on untreated surfaces, especially Saturday night onwards.

A WORD OF CAUTION:

Around the onset of a cold spell such as the one we’re due to experience, detail beyond a couple of days can often prove elusive and the forecast can change markedly. Hence it’s best not to look too far in to the future, although I will try and give a general picture of where things seem to be heading for."

So there you go.

I wonder what they mean by "considerable online chatter", they might be watching us!

Thanks for sharing

[Snow free zone]

Thanks for that TD.

Looks like standard Easterly fayre for us then - if it comes to fruition that is.

[dodge]

Thanks for sharing the email alert trickydicky...

Nothing really nailed down for 'appreciable' snow deposits but this will always be down to more short term forecasting than long term. We could end up being pleasantly surprised somewhere over the next 7-10 days.

Today the fog as shrouded the pennine foothills and although it's lifted a little at local level the temp has not got above 4c and looking likely the mist/fog/frost will return later tonight.